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J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII
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Any updates on the number of airframes expected to be produced in 2023 and how that stacks to the 61 F-35s the US expects to recieve this year?
Informed speculation suggests production rate of 100pa by the end of 2023 (@Patch).
Many expect that, from rumors and production rates of the last few years, 70-100 aircraft will be added to the PLAAF this year. I would say that compares rather well with 61 F-35s.
Japan, SK and Australia will have ~350 F-35s by 2035. The J-20 fleet size will surpass that number probably before the end of 2024. The balance of airpower in the West Pacific shifting in favor of China fast.
Procurement number is not the same as delivery number for the US. If US indeed ends up procuring (allocating funds for future jets) just 61 f35 (that's a DoD request number and congress can always add more) it doesnt mean that deliveries of previously contracted planes are not more numerous. I don't think 2022 numbers are available but prior to that US services were getting some 90 or so f35 per year.
61? Didn't LockMart mentioned about reaching an annual production rate of ~150 F-35s this year?
2035 is more than a decade away.
I'd make that F-35 number to 500, since it does look like Japan, South Korea and Australia are gearing up for war with China with ever increasing "defense" spendings. Coupled with the ever expanding presence of the US military in the IndoPac region, I believe the number of 5th-gen fighters that China has to face against by 2035 could go up to 1000-1200.
Even so, if Patch's information is accurate, i.e. Chengdu can reach 100 airframes this year and maintain similar production rate for the coming years at the very least, then China is perfectly capable of operating the same numbers of 5th-gen fighters as their Japanese, South Korean and Australian counterparts with the J-20 by 2025/2026, and these countries plus the Murican F-35s in the IndoPac region by 2031/2032.
Adding that if the J-35 and/or J-31 can enter service and serial production by 2025-2027 - Plus assuming that Shenyang is capable of building 50 J-35s and/or J-31s from 2027 onwards - Then China can move that 1000-1200 5th-gen fighters-goal forward to 2029/2030.
Though, we can only hope that China manages to catch up with the US in terms of introducing 6th-gen fighters into active service, which are expected in the first half of the 2030s.
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Unlikely. SK, Japan and Australia don't have much more in the tank for the expansion of their militaries. I wrote about this before. Japanese re-militarization is mostly hype. The country has substantial military spending and that won't go up much more. Most of the increase will be eaten by personnel wages. Australia was already an overspender. It became worse during Morrison and AUKUS made it extreme. SK is in a similar position to Australia. On top of these, all F-35 production is booked for years. If they ordered today, those orders would get completed in the 2030s.
I don't see any scenarios that China will face more than 700 F-35s. 1000+ 5th gens combined with ~1000 AESA equipped 4th gens is a substantial force. China will have this by 2031.
Another factor is on ground survivability. China's airbase infrastructure is dispersed, redundant and hardened. The country has substantial air defense and a massive missile strike capacity. Japan has none of these at any comparable level. At any exchange, it will see more of the air power based on it getting degraded. And yes, acquiring all the air defense and missiles it pledged recently will use a lot of money too, leaving less for other items like aircraft.
How many of these are for the US? A substantial amount will also go to various European countries who are still waiting for deliveries.
Close to a 100 should be delivered to US this year.
Numbers are numbers... but they will have quite a stockpile to use. Most of them are nowhere close to China and if the time come for them to go there in a war situation, there will be not a lot of bases left close enough to permit them to attack mainland China.
Mainland US and China are quite difficult to crack.
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