J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

weig2000 said:

The annual production rate and the resulting total number of J-20 (all variants) produced are one of the few more consequential numbers to watch for in the coming decade. Another one is the number of nuclear warheads. Others are important too, but they're not as consequential. These two are indicators.

Click to expand...

Slightly off topic. The SSN/SSBN acquisition numbers are just as, if not even more important in the near to medium term as well.

Their pilot training programs must be in overdrive.

Blitzo said:

I suspect at the end of 2022 they probably were very close to 200 produced (maybe 170-180+) so we broadly agree in that regard, but I don't see how that would necessitate them producing 100 in 2022 and 50 in 2021, meaning that at the end of 2020 they had only produced 50 J-20s.

Let's recall that the first production J-20 from the original first batch (CB00) was from Dec 2015. I find it difficult to believe that they only produced 50 J-20s between late 2015 and late 2020.

Click to expand...

A lot of the production rate tracking gets muddled by Covid obviously but I still remember people were skeptical that J-20 numbers would be approaching 100 by end of 2021 and as I recall we lost track of counting at around 40-60 sometime in 2020 during the first year of the pandemic. That means between maybe middle of 2020 and end of 2021 only about 50-60 J-20 were produced, unless we were actually already undercounting when we saw batch serials suggesting J-20 production had hit at least 100 by end of 2021.

mossen said:

A good overview of the entire J-20 programme.

What interested me in particular was the discussion around production.

Credible estimates put the 2022 production rate at 70 per annum. A second factory was built in mid-2022 and will start producing in 2023, likely lifting annual production to ~100. A third factory could also be built and if it is, then we're talking ~140 annual production by 2025. However, this third factory is not yet confirmed.

Click to expand...

So the first factory can produce 70, the second 30 and the third 40 ? ... what is the logic? is the first factory bigger than the 2nd and 3rd?

antiterror13 said:

So the first factory can produce 70, the second 30 and the third 40 ? ... what is the logic? is the first factory bigger than the 2nd and 3rd?

Click to expand...

Surely not, in fact never ever ... this would correspond to 140 J-20 per year or about 12 per month! Plain impossible if you ask me.

latenlazy said:

A lot of the production rate tracking gets muddled by Covid obviously but I still remember people were skeptical that J-20 numbers would be approaching 100 by end of 2021 and as I recall we lost track of counting at around 40-60 sometime in 2020 during the first year of the pandemic. That means between maybe middle of 2020 and end of 2021 only about 50-60 J-20 were produced, unless we were actually already undercounting when we saw batch serials suggesting J-20 production had hit at least 100 by end of 2021.

Click to expand...

I think the main issue isn't covid but rather PLA opsec.

The photos of production serials we get can have massive jumps between batches (the biggest no. to date is CB07156, but the smallest one before it was a few batches prior to it, and of course CB07156 isn't the biggest number that would've existed at the time of the photo's release).

My belief is that by end of 2021 they had already broke the 100 mark, i.e. between Dec 2015 and Dec 2021 that they had produced 100+ J-20s, and they built some 70+ J-20s in 2022.

If they had built 100 J-20s in 2022 I get the feeling that's something we would've gotten a hint of one way or another.

Deino said:

Surely not, in fact never ever ... this would correspond to 140 J-20 per year or about 12 per month! Plain impossible if you ask me.

Click to expand...

Not sure how's that impossible when the production rate of the F-35 has been set at 156 units this year?

Besides, the final assembly of the 1000th F-35 has already begun in Fort Worth less than two weeks ago.

If China couldn't keep up with the pace with her J-20 and J-35/31, then the PLAAF and PLANAF risk getting outflanked and outnumbered by deployable F-35s in the WestPac/IndoPac theater in the foreseeable future.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

Not sure how's that impossible when the production rate of the F-35 has been set at 156 units this year?

Besides, the final assembly of the 1000th F-35 has already begun in Fort Worth less than two weeks ago.

If China couldn't keep up with the pace with her J-20 and J-35/31, then the PLAAF and PLANAF risk getting outflanked and outnumbered by deployable F-35s in the WestPac/IndoPac theater in the foreseeable future.

Click to expand...

Impossible in the meaning we haven't seen such a high rate in China before and nothing hints towards such a high rate since it does not fit the number of units known and reported to be under conversion.

Technically it is surely doable

Deino said:

Impossible in the meaning we haven't seen such a high rate in China before and nothing hints towards such a high rate since it does not fit the number of units known and reported to be under conversion.

Technically it is surely doable

Click to expand...

No official source, a good friend of mine said something that I could not believe. He said, China produced almost 800 pieces of WS-10 series engines last year.

Blitzo said:

and of course CB07156 isn't the biggest number that would've existed at the time of the photo's release).

Click to expand...

How sure of this are we ? If i remember the photo was captioned saying it was the first test flight of the new year. Maybe the answer is a lot simpler then we think and 155 was the tally at the end of 2022. That number would not have seen low if you made the prediction at the start of 2022 (maybe even on the high side). It only seems low now because of our erroneous earlier prediction after Zuhai when we thought they had 208+ or whatever it was.
Building on this how long does flight testing typically last ? They could potentially have a lot more airframes built then have passed flight tests.