J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

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mossen

mossen

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A good overview of the entire J-20 programme.


What interested me in particular was the discussion around production.

Credible estimates put the 2022 production rate at 70 per annum. A second factory was built in mid-2022 and will start producing in 2023, likely lifting annual production to ~100. A third factory could also be built and if it is, then we're talking ~140 annual production by 2025. However, this third factory is not yet confirmed.
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
mossen said:
A good overview of the entire J-20 programme.


What interested me in particular was the discussion around production.

Credible estimates put the 2022 production rate at 70 per annum. A second factory was built in mid-2022 and will start producing in 2023, likely lifting annual production to ~100. A third factory could also be built and if it is, then we're talking ~140 annual production by 2025. However, this third factory is not yet confirmed.
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Eh think we’ve subsequently concluded that production in 2022 was probably 100 a year. The “credible estimate” this YouTuber is talking about came straight out of this forum. We do know CAC has had ongoing expansion of production facilities but we don’t know how many planes per facility that ought to translate to.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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latenlazy said:
Eh think we’ve subsequently concluded that production in 2022 was probably 100 a year. The “credible estimate” this YouTuber is talking about came straight out of this forum. We do know CAC has had ongoing expansion of production facilities but we don’t know how many planes per facility that ought to translate to.
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He is on this forum. @5unrise
 
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Blitzo

Blitzo

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latenlazy said:
Eh think we’ve subsequently concluded that production in 2022 was probably 100 a year. The “credible estimate” this YouTuber is talking about came straight out of this forum. We do know CAC has had ongoing expansion of production facilities but we don’t know how many planes per facility that ought to translate to.
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In 2022 production was probably more like 60-70, I haven't seen much compelling arguments for 100 produced in 2022.
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
Blitzo said:
In 2022 production was probably more like 60-70, I haven't seen much compelling arguments for 100 produced in 2022.
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*If* we indeed hit 200 at the end of 2022 then my sense of the estimates are that production was 50 in 2021and 100 in 2022. But I suppose it’s also possible that 2021 and 2022 productions were actually identical and those counts are just dependent on where in the production sequence we got to sample with the batch numbers we could spot.
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

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latenlazy said:
*If* we indeed hit 200 at the end of 2022 then my sense of the estimates are that production was 50 in 2021and 100 in 2022. But I suppose it’s also possible that 2021 and 2022 productions were actually identical and those counts are just dependent on where in the production sequence we got to sample with the batch numbers we could spot.
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I suspect at the end of 2022 they probably were very close to 200 produced (maybe 170-180+) so we broadly agree in that regard, but I don't see how that would necessitate them producing 100 in 2022 and 50 in 2021, meaning that at the end of 2020 they had only produced 50 J-20s.

Let's recall that the first production J-20 from the original first batch (CB00) was from Dec 2015. I find it difficult to believe that they only produced 50 J-20s between late 2015 and late 2020.
 
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weig2000

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The annual production rate and the resulting total number of J-20 (all variants) produced are one of the few more consequential numbers to watch for in the coming decade. Another one is the number of nuclear warheads. Others are important too, but they're not as consequential. These two are indicators.
 
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