J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII
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by78
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Still have reading comprehension problems, I see. I never said you confused WS-15 with WS-10, but only that your original claim about WS-15 was in response to a post about WS-10, as seen below:
Now you apparently have a memory problem as well. You said that you had read some leaks on CJDBY from 2014 that say "606 significantly altered the WS-15's specs, among them the thrust rating." I asked you to provide a link to the said leaks you read in 2014, but you were unable to. Anything Maya may or may not have said or implied is beyond the scope of our original discussion and therefore irrelevant. So, let me ask you again, do you have a link to the "leaks in 2014" that say there were "significant" alterations to WS-15's specs?
Again with Maya. Did he say it was a goal set by the CCP Central Committee in the five-year plan that WS-15's development be concluded by 2020? Maya merely estimated (in response to a question) that it would take around 10 more years to achieve mass production. He never said 2020 was the goal or deadline. So what delay are you talking about?Regarding the delay, Maya said it would take about 10 years for the WS-15 to enter mass production after testing its core at high altitude in late 2009. I hope you can agree that the WS-15 is not nearly in mass production stage yet right? As I've said before, I highly recommend you read through the 545 page engine thread. Perhaps it can enlighten you a bit on the Chinese aeroengine development.
Moreover, you yourself have previously quoted Liu Daxiang as saying "WS-15 would achieve design certification around 2021 to 2023" and that "mass production can only begin after that." So you were aware of the latest developmental timeline for WS-15, then why are you quoting Maya's outdated estimate from more than 10 years ago? Is it because you are regurgitating information you read without understanding it?
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Can you guys take this somewhere else. This back and forth ceased being topical two pages ago.Still have reading comprehension problems, I see. I never said you confused WS-15 with WS-10, but only that your original claim about WS-15 was in response to a post about WS-10, as seen below:
Now you apparently have a memory problem as well. You said that you had read some leaks on CJDBY from 2014 that say "606 significantly altered the WS-15's specs, among them the thrust rating." I asked you to provide a link to the said leaks you read in 2014, but you were unable to. Anything Maya may or may not have said or implied is beyond the scope of our original discussion and therefore irrelevant. So, let me ask you again, do you have a link to the "leaks in 2014" that say there were "significant" alterations to WS-15's specs?
Again with Maya. Did he say it was a goal set by the CCP Central Committee in the five-year plan that WS-15's development be concluded by 2020? Maya merely estimated (in response to a question) that it would take around 10 more years to achieve mass production. He never said 2020 was the goal or deadline. So what delay are you talking about?
Moreover, you yourself have previously quoted Liu Daxiang as saying "WS-15 would achieve design certification around 2021 to 2023" and that "mass production can only begin after that." So you were aware of the latest developmental timeline for WS-15, then why are you quoting Maya's outdated estimate from more than 10 years ago? Is it because you are regurgitating information you read without understanding it?
Now now we don't have to resort to personal insults like "memory problems." I have kept this discussion cordial and I expect the same of you. Note in my previous post I did said the following : "I could not find the specific CJDBY threads detailing this revision since it was quite some time ago but you're more than fine to go search for this yourself." I told you I read them some time ago and hence unfortunately cannot provide you the specific links. As I said, you're more than welcome to spend the time to look them up for yourself.Still have reading comprehension problems, I see. I never said you confused WS-15 with WS-10, but only that your original claim about WS-15 was in response to a post about WS-10, as seen below:
Now you apparently have a memory problem as well. You said that you had read some leaks on CJDBY from 2014 that say "606 significantly altered the WS-15's specs, among them the thrust rating." I asked you to provide a link to the said leaks you read in 2014, but you were unable to. Anything Maya may or may not have said or implied is beyond the scope of our original discussion and therefore irrelevant. So, let me ask you again, do you have a link to the "leaks in 2014" that say there were "significant" alterations to WS-15's specs?
I really don't know why you have such a difficult time comprehending this Maya clearly mentioned that the WS-15 was expected to enter service about tens years after the completion of its high altitude testing. I do not need to refer to a five year plan or anything ... it is pretty clear by what Maya meant that if the WS-15 was on schedule, J-20s would have already been equipped with them, which is simply not the case. Earlier you said you had never heard of any delays with the WS-15 program, which is why I brought up Maya's quote. It seems that you have a hard time understanding what exactly you're arguing about, not me. Do you seriously need to be presented with a classified official timeline of the WS-15 to be convinced the program is behind schedule?
Also out of consideration for not derailing this thread any further, I am willing to settle this discussion via pm.
by78
General
The burden of proof is on you. You made the claim; I'm not responsible for proving your claim. Moreover, I don't see how pointing out your memory lapses is a personal insult. For the record, you do seem to have a memory problem.
And you have a hard time comprehending that Maya's outdated personal speculation over 10 years ago to be irrelevant, especially considering you know what the current project timeline is from 624's chief engineer Dr. Liu Daxiang.
I will not engage you via pm because an open public discussion is necessary to filter out misinformation. You made a claim publicly on the forum, and all subsequent discussions on your claim should be in the public domain as well. You can't just run away to pm every time after accusing me of personal attacks for asking you to back up your claims.
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I don't see how saying someone repeatedly has a "memory problem" is not a personal insult even though I have answered your questions. But I suppose when someone is on the shorter side of an argument resorting to ad hominem attacks is not a bad tactic (even though this is often considered a fanboy tactic).
It is funny how you called Maya's timeline outdated. The timeline he gave was the original timeline for the WS-15 ... the one Dr. Liu gave was in 2018 and most probably had the delays factored in. In short, Maya's and Dr. Liu's timelines do not contradict each other. What is evident from Dr. Liu's timeline however is that the WS-15 has been delayed. It seems you have doubts of Maya's credibility which is why I recommend you read up his various threads on CJDBY and even his posts here on SDF. He was perhaps the single most credible source on Chinese aeroengine development before he disappeared around 2012. So is Maya's timeline outdated? Of course ... but that only means that was the original timeline and the WS-15 has evidently been delayed.
by78
General
Now I know that in addition to memory problems, you have a sensitivity problem. I didn't mean to melt you.
Maya gave a personal estimation on how long he thought it would take for the WS-15 to enter mass production after it had completed the high-altitude test. Was he the chief designer of the WS-15? Did he directly participate in designing or managing the development of WS-15? Was he a decision maker on the project? Maya took a personal guess, and you took this guess as gospel, as if it were an official deadline, when it was not. The only definitive 'timeline' we have, directly from the horse's mouth, is Dr. Liu's.
And here's another problem with your understanding. You assumed Dr. Liu's timeline "most probably had the delays factored in", when it is not clear if there had been delays to begin with. In other words, you began by assuming there had been delays, and then you projected this unproven assumption onto Dr. Liu's timeline and used Dr. Liu's timeline as proof of your unproven assumption. This is a logical fallacy. All along, it was you who assumed there had been delays, probably based on your imaginative reading of previously shared information.
Okay, @by78 and @Figaro, knock it off now please.
Debating over the veracity and interpretation of sources and statements is fine, but at a certain point it starts to go into circles (which I myself have also participated in in the past, admittedly.).
But let's try to keep it clear from the flagship threads.
For future reference, let's try to be aware of what the community considers to be "reasonable" claims versus claims requiring more "caution," and if you think someone's claim overreaches one way or the other, engage them in a civil manner.
Debating over the veracity and interpretation of sources and statements is fine, but at a certain point it starts to go into circles (which I myself have also participated in in the past, admittedly.).
But let's try to keep it clear from the flagship threads.
For future reference, let's try to be aware of what the community considers to be "reasonable" claims versus claims requiring more "caution," and if you think someone's claim overreaches one way or the other, engage them in a civil manner.
Lol you just proved my point even more. Well given how desperate you are for winning an argument, I can't blame you for using the tactics of the fanboys you so despise.
Wrong as usual. Here's an official source since you clearly don't believe Maya ... which is disappointing. Maya's timeline mirrors this timeline, which I think you can consider to be official (i.e. flight test around 2015 and mass production/delivery in 2020). Now, please tell me if the WS-15 is on schedule in accordance with this official timeline.
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by78
General
That's a expenditure/funding projection for the J-20 fighter project, not for the WS-15 turbofan! Furthermore, it's not even an official project roadmap with deadlines, but merely a funding projection based on one scenario. It's obvious that you don't read Chinese, so here's a translation:
(4) Estimated expenditure based on a projected scenario of developmental progress:
Based on the Air Force requirements for the fighter jet, in conjunction with the current progress of project "fifteen", our analysis shows that in order to establish a foundation for the 4th-generation fighter by 2006-2007 and have it enter service by 2019-2020, the progress scenario is as follows (see figure 5).
Figure 5 then lists the hoped-for progress for the various components of the J-20 project, including a date for integrating WS-10 engines onto the fighter. More tellingly, it mentions nothing about J-20's projected first flight with WS-15.
Based on our projection of future force posture, combat requirements, and budgetary constraints, we tentatively predict that by 2040 the Air Force will need xxx 4th-generation fighters. With that number in mind, and based on the past expenditure records for the 3rd-generation fighters such as J-10 and J-11, using the 2002 Renminbi value, our initial analysis predicts the total research expenditure for the J-20 project to be 37.1 billion yuan, which includes costs for eight prototypes and six pre-production examples. Airframe component is approximately 20 billion yuan, engines six billion yuan, avionics 7.5 billion yuan, and weapons 3.6 billion yuan. The total expenditure is about equal to the combined developmental costs for the J-10 and J-11 projects. Single unit cost for J-20 is expected to be 450 to 500 million yuan...
So, you have yet again presented something you don't understand as proof. As I have advised you before, if you don't read Chinese, then ask for a translation before sharing it.
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