J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

Surely PLAAF knows that its batch numbers are being closely followed by the OSINT community to gauge its J-20 (and others) total numbers.

So I could definitely see a scenario where the PLAAF is playing some mind games here. Lets wait and see if in the coming months we will have more photos from that same batch

Also, parts manufacturer’s batches are usually different from the plane batches.

Kalec said:

I would rather take it with a grain of salt. Why does PLARF keep J-20 in reserve meanwhile 5th gen fighter is in high demand both in training and patrolling.

Click to expand...

That's just the PLA modus operandi for all fighter aircraft types.

It's normal operational/maintenance pattern, so why would they change it for J-20?

caohailiang said:

what is your assessment wrt the production rate given this new info. i think we are looking at least 60+

this is almost a strategic surprise for US in my opinion

Click to expand...

How could you estimate the production rate from merely the text of CB0369? I am curious and this is a genuine honest question

tphuang said:

Okay, so they are basically up to 75 J-20s a year if we anticipate a few more produced for this batch. That's crazy high and way more than the optimistic 45 to 50 a year that I had projected earlier this year. Basically 1.5 per line per month and 4 lines -> 6 a month. I didn't anticipate them to reach this rate until like 2027. This should significantly lower the cost of J-20 production.

Also, it means China is procuring more J-20s a year than America is procuring F-35s

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Unbelievable, they might get to close to 100 a year if they can add another production line and further optimize the production line. We are still in Nov, so they will probably get to 190 J-20s by the end of this year and close to 350 by the end of 2024 and 500+ by end of 2026.

Amazing what they can done once WS-10C production got ramped up.

Click to expand...

Interesting how the PLAAF managed to keep up the pilots for J-20 for the 75+ a year production

antiterror13 said:

better how the PLAAF managed to keep up the pilots for J-20 for the 75+ a year production

Click to expand...

You are right, human/software part of military buildup is often the least appreciated part. The fact they are able to pump out this many j20s show that they have gotten much at getting pilots through flight school and from 3rd to 4th to 5th gen aircraft.

tphuang said:

You are right, human/software part of military buildup is often the least appreciated part. The fact they are able to pump out this many j20s show that they have gotten much at getting pilots through flight school and from 3rd to 4th to 5th gen aircraft.

Click to expand...

Well now we know what all those retired western pilots were up to in China.

Since this is component serial we are talking about, why can't they be making more canopies than planes while keeping some canopies in reserve as repair parts?

T-U-P said:

Since this is component serial we are talking about, why can't they be making more canopies than planes while keeping some canopies in reserve as repair parts?

Click to expand...

Not impossible, but it would require us to have evidence that there are various components on an aircraft have different CB production serial numbers first.

At present, to my knowledge we do not have any indication of past CB mismatch for different parts on the same aircraft.

antiterror13 said:

Interesting how the PLAAF managed to keep up the pilots for J-20 for the 75+ a year production

Click to expand...

tphuang said:

You are right, human/software part of military buildup is often the least appreciated part. The fact they are able to pump out this many j20s show that they have gotten much at getting pilots through flight school and from 3rd to 4th to 5th gen aircraft.

Click to expand...

One other thing to consider is that the United States has the largest (USAF) and 2nd largest (USNAF) air forces in the world. And that's from a population of 335 million.

Meanwhile, China has 4.3 times the population of the United States.

Which means, China definitely has more than enough people to extract from the her population to fill the ranks of her air forces, i.e. PLAAF and PLANAF, should China intend to operate air forces of the same size and scale as the United States.

In fact, just my personal thought - Expecting China would soon be facing against her enemies on two seperate war fronts (i.e. the Western Pacific front and the Himalayan front) - Possibly even simultaneously - My idea would be for China to field PLAAF and PLANAF that is optimally twice the size and scale of the USAF and USNAF, in order to better increase the chances and guarantee of ultimate victory for China, while simultaneously handling both fronts.