J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

minusone said:

so what are we looking at? ~130 J20A at least?

Click to expand...

We don't know, because we don't know if Korla, Congqing, and Huzhou have actually received J-20s (or if they will even receive J-20s), and even for them and the four confirmed brigades, we don't know exactly how many airframes each of the ABs have.

If you want a solid floor estimate, in terms of "in service" J-20s (i.e.: including Dingxin, Cangzhou, and frontline air brigades, and NOT including 201X/202X/203X prototypes), I think ~90 aircraft is a reliable floor estimate, with the real number likely meaningfully higher.

minusone said:

do you know anything about ws15? is it finally sorted just pending for more testing?

Click to expand...

We don't have concrete information about its status and how far along it is with testing.
There are solid indicators that it is in flight testing on a J-20 prototype, in a one engine format. We don't know if there is a J-20 airframe testing it with two engines.


I'm going to offer some advice -- when asking questions like this, don't expect to get clear cut answers.

I will say that I find XiYazhou a little out there compared to the information I get from Shilao and Yankeesama. That's why I generally don't listen to XiYazhou. I did want to listen to his podcast and a couple of other views just to see what they got from Gen Wilsbach's comments that I may have missed or glanced over. I did include the part he said makes sense to me.

Just listening again to Wilsbach's comment on J-20 and KJ-500. The question was about how J-20's usage. Also are they worried about more J-20 or the greater number of J-10s and AWACs. The comments he made:
1) J-20 is only used in air superiority right now. (matches what we know about J-20)
2) J-20 was flown professionally and well. Contrasted to USN often comment PLAN being unprofessional. So, it would seem like USAF/PLAAF meet often enough over ECS that they have a pretty well established operating procedure on how to interact when they encounter each other.
3) Being impressed with command and control of PLAAF on J-20 and other aircraft was mentioned multiple times. I can only assume they are impressed with how quickly they were able to find F-35s upon entrance into Chinese ADIZ and meeting J-20 or another aircraft.
4) Specifically brought up KJ-500 and the role it has in C2 of PLAAF. That means they must be meeting KJ-500 a lot.
5) Talked about usage of KJ-500 in the kill chain. USAF often talks sensors and shooters. They must be finding that KJ-500 is significantly extending the engagement range of PLAAF. Especially with respect to usage of LRAAM to a range that probably exceeds AIM-120D. Again, I would assume that USAF must be getting beamed from very far away.
6) He'd like to have many unmanned for each manned aircraft around China. This is probably what we should also look to when it comes to future fleet structure around J-20s.
7) There are 4 E-3s in Pacific region and they are often all unable to fly. Stark contrast to KJ-500.
8) E-3 cannot see J-20 far out enough to provide an advantage to shooters. To me, this means while E-3 might have longer tracking range against J-20 than F-35's radar system, it cannot provide F-35 with advantage vs KJ-500 and J-20. The implication seems to be that KJ-500 (whether by just having a large antenna or operating L-band or more onboard processor) can significantly aid the tracking range of J-20.
9) E-7 can provide that advantage for USAF. No mention of E-2. That to me means they think E-7 can detect J-20 sooner than KJ-500 can detect F-35. Keep in mind that both AWACS would probably be using L-band radar which has certain advantage in tracking LO aircraft than X-band radar on fighter jet or S-band radar on E-3C.
10) Improving weapons capability. Wanting 5th/6th generation weapons to go with the platform. Does not want detection gap advantage to be wasted by weapon range. This to me seems to point to the obvious advantage that PLAAF LRAAM has over AIM-120D

All of that tells me USAF are probably concerned about KJ-500's ability to find F-35 and direct fighter jets over there. They don't like the current matchup of KJ-500 guiding J-20 vs E-3C guiding F-35. They like the matchup of E-7 guiding F-35 vs KJ-500 guiding J-20. Which means either E-7 has a tracking range advantage vs low RCS target against KJ-500 or F-35 has lower RCS than J-20 or both. They are also concerned that if they do find J-20 sooner, that advantage is lost due to range deficit on the AAMs.

tphuang said:

I will say that I find XiYazhou a little out there compared to the information I get from Shilao and Yankeesama. That's why I generally don't listen to XiYazhou. I did want to listen to his podcast and a couple of other views just to see what they got from Gen Wilsbach's comments that I may have missed or glanced over. I did include the part he said makes sense to me.

Just listening again to Wilsbach's comment on J-20 and KJ-500. The question was about how J-20's usage. Also are they worried about more J-20 or the greater number of J-10s and AWACs. The comments he made:
1) J-20 is only used in air superiority right now. (matches what we know about J-20)
2) J-20 was flown professionally and well. Contrasted to USN often comment PLAN being unprofessional. So, it would seem like USAF/PLAAF meet often enough over ECS that they have a pretty well established operating procedure on how to interact when they encounter each other.
3) Being impressed with command and control of PLAAF on J-20 and other aircraft was mentioned multiple times. I can only assume they are impressed with how quickly they were able to find F-35s upon entrance into Chinese ADIZ and meeting J-20 or another aircraft.
4) Specifically brought up KJ-500 and the role it has in C2 of PLAAF. That means they must be meeting KJ-500 a lot.
5) Talked about usage of KJ-500 in the kill chain. USAF often talks sensors and shooters. They must be finding that KJ-500 is significantly extending the engagement range of PLAAF. Especially with respect to usage of LRAAM to a range that probably exceeds AIM-120D. Again, I would assume that USAF must be getting beamed from very far away.
6) He'd like to have many unmanned for each manned aircraft around China. This is probably what we should also look to when it comes to future fleet structure around J-20s.
7) There are 4 E-3s in Pacific region and they are often all unable to fly. Stark contrast to KJ-500.
8) E-3 cannot see J-20 far out enough to provide an advantage to shooters. To me, this means while E-3 might have longer tracking range against J-20 than F-35's radar system, it cannot provide F-35 with advantage vs KJ-500 and J-20. The implication seems to be that KJ-500 (whether by just having a large antenna or operating L-band or more onboard processor) can significantly aid the tracking range of J-20.
9) E-7 can provide that advantage for USAF. No mention of E-2. That to me means they think E-7 can detect J-20 sooner than KJ-500 can detect F-35. Keep in mind that both AWACS would probably be using L-band radar which has certain advantage in tracking LO aircraft than X-band radar on fighter jet or S-band radar on E-3C.
10) Improving weapons capability. Wanting 5th/6th generation weapons to go with the platform. Does not want detection gap advantage to be wasted by weapon range. This to me seems to point to the obvious advantage that PLAAF LRAAM has over AIM-120D

All of that tells me USAF are probably concerned about KJ-500's ability to find F-35 and direct fighter jets over there. They don't like the current matchup of KJ-500 guiding J-20 vs E-3C guiding F-35. They like the matchup of E-7 guiding F-35 vs KJ-500 guiding J-20. Which means either E-7 has a tracking range advantage vs low RCS target against KJ-500 or F-35 has lower RCS than J-20 or both. They are also concerned that if they do find J-20 sooner, that advantage is lost due to range deficit on the AAMs.

Click to expand...

Or the pilots are unwilling to risk 100 million dollar state of the art aircraft.

Deino said:

Concerning J-20s all over the country? What do you think about this:
J-20As allegedly being spotted over or at Chongqing Dazu, which is home of the 97th Air Brigade, WTC.

Is this the alleged rumoured WTC-brigade or just a detachment at an exercise?

(via @飞扬军事铁背心 from Weibo)

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

View attachment 85611 View attachment 85612

Here as a gif:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505547825316130820

Click to expand...

It’s not Chongqing, but Zhejiang.

有网友在抖音上发了个视频，并在上面写说重庆看到了歼-20，据此一些网友认为这是重庆两个旅中的一个换了20。但其实仔细看看这个视频很明显不是重庆...... 首先这根本不是长江，更别说是在丘陵地带的重庆了（即便是重庆西部的平原地貌也不是这个样子），图二可以看出这明显是个湖..... 图三显示的建筑风格明显是江浙风格，图四的横幅中提到了“五水共治”，这是浙江省的政策....... 从路过女子穿衣来看，很可能都不是今年拍的......所以拍摄地大概率在浙江，或许靠近衢州，绝不是在重庆......

When the J-20 was first unveiled, the Western argument.... was it made for air-superiority because that's what topline fighter are made for and of course they said no. Now they're questioning if it does more than air superiority...? This is like the debate over two engines vs one. First two engines were better in case one failed. Now because the F-35 has one engine and the J-35 has two, one engine is better than two said all the F-35s that can also brag being able to take a one-way swim to the floor of the ocean.

huitong said:

It’s not Chongqing, but Zhejiang.

有网友在抖音上发了个视频，并在上面写说重庆看到了歼-20，据此一些网友认为这是重庆两个旅中的一个换了20。但其实仔细看看这个视频很明显不是重庆...... 首先这根本不是长江，更别说是在丘陵地带的重庆了（即便是重庆西部的平原地貌也不是这个样子），图二可以看出这明显是个湖..... 图三显示的建筑风格明显是江浙风格，图四的横幅中提到了“五水共治”，这是浙江省的政策....... 从路过女子穿衣来看，很可能都不是今年拍的......所以拍摄地大概率在浙江，或许靠近衢州，绝不是在重庆......

Click to expand...

translated via Google this results in:

Some netizens posted a video on Douyin and wrote that Chongqing saw the J-20. According to this, some netizens believed that it was one of the two brigades in Chongqing that had replaced the 20. But in fact, if you look closely at this video, it is obvious that it is not Chongqing... First of all, this is not the Yangtze River at all, let alone Chongqing in the hilly area (even the plain landforms in western Chongqing are not like this), Figure 2 can be It can be seen that this is obviously a lake..... The architectural style shown in Figure 3 is obviously the style of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the banner in Figure 4 mentions "five water co-governance", which is the policy of Zhejiang Province...... From Judging by the clothes of the passing women, it is very likely that they were not taken this year... So the filming location is most likely in Zhejiang, perhaps near Quzhou, not in Chongqing...

Click to expand...

So could it be that this is indeed from Quzhou or even simply Wuhu?

Deino said:

So could it be that this is indeed from Quzhou or even simply Wuhu?

Click to expand...

Wuhu is in Anhui.

tphuang said:

All of that tells me USAF are probably concerned about KJ-500's ability to find F-35 and direct fighter jets over there. They don't like the current matchup of KJ-500 guiding J-20 vs E-3C guiding F-35. They like the matchup of E-7 guiding F-35 vs KJ-500 guiding J-20. Which means either E-7 has a tracking range advantage vs low RCS target against KJ-500 or F-35 has lower RCS than J-20 or both. They are also concerned that if they do find J-20 sooner, that advantage is lost due to range deficit on the AAMs.

Click to expand...

It could be that all the E-7/F-35 combo provides the USAF is parity. It could even be that the E-7/F-35 combo is still worse than the KJ-500/J-20. All we can conclude is that it's better than E-3/F-35.

siegecrossbow said:

Wuhu is in Anhui.

Click to expand...

Sorry for the confusion, but if they were seen there, then it does not mean they must be based there and as such could well be from the 9th AB?

My point is, there seems to be some sort of hype recently and even if - as @Bltizo noted - it could be that several units are gaining just a few J-20s instead of a full dadui and will be later filled up, there are at least by my feeling too many units under discussion right now.

As such it could also be an explanation that they are not always from a new unit but from a visit, a detachment of an exercise, ... whatever.

Deino said:

Sorry for the confusion, but if they were seen there, then it does not mean they must be based there and as such could well be from the 9th AB?

My point is, there seems to be some sort of hype recently and even if - as @Bltizo noted - it could be that several units are gaining just a few J-20s instead of a full dadui and will be later filled up, there are at least by my feeling too many units under discussion right now.

As such it could also be an explanation that they are not always from a new unit but from a visit, a detachment of an exercise, ... whatever.

Click to expand...

Work on airport in Wuhu has completed a while back. That said, the video could’ve been taken last year and it is also not far fetched with a long ranged aircraft like the J-20 to fly into Zhejiang.