J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

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So what is the current estimate of how many J-20 are in service? 80-90?

Deino said:

Agreed ... the question is only: Two or even already three daduis?

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That is a tough call to make but I think three or close to three right now. In part I base this on the announcement close to the end of last year that CAC had a record of annual transistions and single turnovers as can be seen in the AVIC Weibo post in post #3,876.
What exactly the 2323 goal is, I am not sure but it seems to be connected to J-20 production and it may or may not be related to 23 J-20s.

In any case we know that the 1st had been receiving J-20s with WS-10Cs since late 2020 and got a clear image on 01/01/2021 and an image showing 7 J-20s at the CAC plant around mid January from Scramble, so by end of January we knew of at least 8 distinct units. Note, that while the 7 aircraft we saw in primer may only have been delivered months later we can infer that significant J-20 WS-10 variant production started months before January 2021. Adding aircraft that were either in less advanced production changes or were only started in 2021 I'd say there is a good chance that production exceeds 2 daduis already.
Since today we know that Anshan has 15+ J-20s. I'd find it hard to believe if during all this time they'd just received 2 daduis given the already ongoing production ahead of 2021 even if some though a couple of those went to Cangzhou.
As such I think the 61125 (Huitong has 61128 already but without an image) is not the highest tail number and I'd expect that we can see a 6122X in the near future if they are generous with photos.

Combine this with the spotting of a J-20 near the 5th brigade at Guilin I am inclined to believe that Anshan should have almost its entire complement of J-20s already given that we heard similar things about Anshan well after when we knew J-20 production switched to WS-10s. I.e. since I expect that the 9th uses exclusively AL-31s that they already had fully transitioned by this point so I expect Anshan to also be at a similar stage when we see a J-20 near Guilin.

Edit: 61128 has been photographed. Credit Huitongs CMA blog as usual

11226p said:

That is a tough call to make but I think three or close to three right now. In part I base this on the announcement close to the end of last year that CAC had a record of annual transistions and single turnovers as can be seen in the AVIC Weibo post in post #3,876.
What exactly the 2323 goal is, I am not sure but it seems to be connected to J-20 production and it may or may not be related to 23 J-20s.

In any case we know that the 1st had been receiving J-20s with WS-10Cs since late 2020 and got a clear image on 01/01/2021 and an image showing 7 J-20s at the CAC plant around mid January from Scramble, so by end of January we knew of at least 8 distinct units. Note, that while the 7 aircraft we saw in primer may only have been delivered months later we can infer that significant J-20 WS-10 variant production started months before January 2021. Adding aircraft that were either in less advanced production changes or were only started in 2021 I'd say there is a good chance that production exceeds 2 daduis already.
Since today we know that Anshan has 15+ J-20s. I'd find it hard to believe if during all this time they'd just received 2 daduis given the already ongoing production ahead of 2021 even if some though a couple of those went to Cangzhou.
As such I think the 61125 (Huitong has 61128 already but without an image) is not the highest tail number and I'd expect that we can see a 6122X in the near future if they are generous with photos.

Combine this with the spotting of a J-20 near the 5th brigade at Guilin I am inclined to believe that Anshan should have almost its entire complement of J-20s already given that we heard similar things about Anshan well after when we knew J-20 production switched to WS-10s. I.e. since I expect that the 9th uses exclusively AL-31s that they already had fully transitioned by this point so I expect Anshan to also be at a similar stage when we see a J-20 near Guilin.

Edit: 61128 has been photographed. Credit Huitongs CMA blog as usual

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2323 is the ratio of production in each quarter: 20% in first quarter, 30% in second, and so and so forth. This is a good ratio since sometimes AVIC would rush production in the 4th quarter to meet quota, which is bad.

siegecrossbow said:

2323 is the ratio of production in each quarter: 20% in first quarter, 30% in second, and so and so forth. This is a good ratio since sometimes AVIC would rush production in the 4th quarter to meet quota, which is bad.

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Thank you, that is very interesting.

Hm?? ... and now after a whole bunch of finally confirmed J-20As from the 1st Air Brigade at Anshan, also a first one that would fit to the rumoured 5th Air Brigade at Guilin.

However my feeling tells me, the second-last digit looks a bit fishy!

Deino said:

Hm?? ... and now after a whole bunch of finally confirmed J-20As from the 1st Air Brigade at Anshan, also a first one that would fit to the rumoured 5th Air Brigade at Guilin.

However my feeling tells me, the second-last digit looks a bit fishy!

View attachment 81449

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Now with the original image available I would say it is legit. The third operational PLAAF frontline unit is confirmed to fly J-20A fighters!

Totoro said:

This is going to be slightly off topic, but hopefully not too much.
As far as I know, PLAAF has the following:
20 or 24 J-11 per brigade. That'd be either fairly clean distribution of 2 daduis. But it could also be there are 2 10-ship single seater daduis and an additional 4 ship two seater dadui. Does anyone have more info?
28 J-10 within a brigade. That would definitely require daduis of different sizes within a single unit. Perhaps 2 12-ship daduis for single seaters and a 4-ship dadui of twin seaters.
Not sure how J-16 brigades are structured. Do they simply have 2 12-ship daduis? Or 3 8-ship daduis?
Then there are Su-30 brigades. Which allegedly have some 18 planes each. That'd suggest a highly unorthodox 2 9-ship dadui structure. Is that true?
J-7s and Q-5s have had, in the past, over 30 planes in a brigade. But Q-5s have been retired and J-7s are likely very close to retirement. Maybe the number of daduis per brigade has dwindled? Does anyone have info on that?
J-8s are also close to retirement but those few brigades that do still exist should have two 10-ship or 12-ship daduis? Do those have a separate 4-ship JJ-7 dadui for training?
Finally, we come to J-20. As far as I can understand Deino, he's suggesting their units may have as many as 3 daduis. How many planes would each of those daduis have?

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Good question ... for many years the number of aircarft for one brigade and former regiment was 24 + 4 twin seater but recently several units have been expanded like exactly the 1st AB at Anshan, which has/had 30 J-11B (up to 61320) and 8 J-11BS (up to 61328) so 38 J-11B/BS at all.

IMO the new number of a dadui is 10 ... but I need to check more units.

Wow ... that's indeed like Christmas time today.

But how likely is it that this is the a Batch 02 aircraft and does it mean there are already 56 within that batch?

Deino said:

Wow ... that's indeed like Christmas time today.

But how likely is it that this is the a Batch 02 aircraft and does it mean there are already 56 within that batch?

View attachment 81455

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You get a J-20, you get a J-20, every body gets a J-20!