J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
I get the view that when life gives you lemons you make lemonade, but come on...

Demonstrating capability is much more important than just eye candy. I read your exchange with Justin Bronk on Twitter (I particularly enjoyed how you backed him down on the LO/VLO distinction) and while I agree with everything you said, his ridiculous view has a leg to stand on in part because of the J-20's anemic public displays. If casual observers only ever see the J-20 do turns that make a crop duster look agile, it's not unreasonable for them to conclude that that's because it can't do better. Not everyone is going to read Song Wencong's paper and reason about the inherent agility of the canard+LERX planform.

Casual observers who are knowledgeable and intelligent understand more than you give them credit for. The rest can't be "convinced" anyway and there really isn't that much point in convincing them.

There were even rumours that amateur video of a J-20 doing a cobra was scrubbed from the Chinese internet; that's just ridiculous.

I'll admit that a large bulk of my motivation is that I want to see bastards like Bronk repeat "the J-20 is an all aspect VLO air superiority fighter" like a catechism, but there are perfectly rational reasons why excessive secrecy is counterproductive, even dangerous. If you obsessively guard every little detail and give no glimpse whatsoever, it's rational for people to conclude that you're so obsessively secretive because there's nothing there. You don't show anything because there's nothing to show. You have no confidence in your capabilities. That can lead to a dangerous underestimation of your capabilities and your enemy might calculate that you're a pushover.

That doesn't mean you reveal every secret, but there's a balance between secrecy and signalling capability and I don't think China is getting the balance right. In fact, I worry that it's getting it dangerously wrong.

Well preventing the J-20 from showing its limits of subsonic kinematic performance is totally productive in this case. The only loss is we can't say to the typical Jai Hind level trolls "look here at this video there you go now shut up". That's kind of not what the PLA cares about.

PLA and China also hasn't been excessively secretive at all. I'd say China is behaving quite a lot less secretive about its capabilities in recent years, to the point of being potentially revealing too much if anything.
 

steel21

Junior Member
Registered Member
Casual observers who are knowledgeable and intelligent understand more than you give them credit for. The rest can't be "convinced" anyway and there really isn't that much point in convincing them.



Well preventing the J-20 from showing its limits of subsonic kinematic performance is totally productive in this case. The only loss is we can't say to the typical Jai Hind level trolls "look here at this video there you go now shut up". That's kind of not what the PLA cares about.

PLA and China also hasn't been excessively secretive at all. I'd say China is behaving quite a lot less secretive about its capabilities in recent years, to the point of being potentially revealing too much if anything.
When you have nothing you have to be extra secretive to keep everyone guessing.

When you got some gear, you might want to show off a bit just so no one gets any funny ideas. Still cheaper than fighting a protracted war on terrorism.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
I get the view that when life gives you lemons you make lemonade, but come on...

Demonstrating capability is much more important than just eye candy. I read your exchange with Justin Bronk on Twitter (I particularly enjoyed how you backed him down on the LO/VLO distinction) and while I agree with everything you said, his ridiculous view has a leg to stand on in part because of the J-20's anemic public displays. If casual observers only ever see the J-20 do turns that make a crop duster look agile, it's not unreasonable for them to conclude that that's because it can't do better. Not everyone is going to read Song Wencong's paper and reason about the inherent agility of the canard+LERX planform.

There were even rumours that amateur video of a J-20 doing a cobra was scrubbed from the Chinese internet; that's just ridiculous.

I'll admit that a large bulk of my motivation is that I want to see bastards like Bronk repeat "the J-20 is an all aspect VLO air superiority fighter" like a catechism, but there are perfectly rational reasons why excessive secrecy is counterproductive, even dangerous. If you obsessively guard every little detail and give no glimpse whatsoever, it's rational for people to conclude that you're so obsessively secretive because there's nothing there. You don't show anything because there's nothing to show. You have no confidence in your capabilities. That can lead to a dangerous underestimation of your capabilities and your enemy might calculate that you're a pushover.

That doesn't mean you reveal every secret, but there's a balance between secrecy and signalling capability and I don't think China is getting the balance right. In fact, I worry that it's getting it dangerously wrong.
I mean...I definitely want eye candy but I don’t think winning internet arguments about what the J-20 can do is really that vital to infosec...
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
I mean...I definitely want eye candy but I don’t think winning internet arguments about what the J-20 can do is really that vital to infosec...
There are secrets and there are secrets. "Can the J-20 do high AoA manoeuvres" is not a secret like "how much plutonium does China have". Let me repeat the relevant part of my argument since you seem to have missed it:
If you obsessively guard every little detail and give no glimpse whatsoever, it's rational for people to conclude that you're so obsessively secretive because there's nothing there. You don't show anything because there's nothing to show. You have no confidence in your capabilities. That can lead to a dangerous underestimation of your capabilities and your enemy might calculate that you're a pushover.

That doesn't mean you reveal every secret, but there's a balance between secrecy and signalling capability and I don't think China is getting the balance right. In fact, I worry that it's getting it dangerously wrong.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Your point is that you think public perception of this stuff affects national security risk calculus. I think that’s quite an overreach which I suspect is a backwards rationalization for the desire to winning Internet arguments.
Your suspicions about my motivations are irrelevant.

What is relevant is your belief that public perception has no effect on national security risk calculus. That's woefully mistaken. When article after article appears in the Western press claiming that the J-20 can't turn and can't fight, do you imagine they're written by an entirely different cast of characters from those formulating policies and making decisions? That would be a very unusual circumstance to have clowns writing for the public (and commenting on their social media accounts) and Very Serious Peoplemaking decisions in shadowy backrooms. That's not how it works; it's all the same group of idiots. It's clowns all the way down.

The likes of Justin Bronk are writing the reports and policy documents that wind up on know-nothing decisionmakers' desks and get implemented. The Very Serious Peopleyou think are toiling away at the RAND Corporation or somewhere who you imagine to have a deep understanding of the J-20's role and capabilities simply do not exist. They're all a pack of Bronks.
 

by78

General
Screen grabs from a promo video.

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