The primary reason why the F-22 was killed wasn’t that that chinese G5 fighter was believed to not be on the horizon. That was a cover story to disguise the fact the F22, a core airforce program since 1980, was in fact falling well short of the range and combat radius goals originally outlined in the program requirements and therefore would not have been very effective from available bases in any probable conflict with china. Basically it was designed for air superiority in a much smaller theater of operation than the west pacific. And it’s actually range was falling short of what was desired even for that. in fact, in the late 1990s, the Air Force was well cognizant of the fact that F 22s range could never meet original operational requirement, and was all for canceling it To help reduce the damage the expensive program has been doing to the operational readiness of the existing Air Force fleet. But late 1990s political and budgetary requirement made it impossible for such a flag ship program for which the Air Force made so much sacrifice earlier in the decade to preserve to be canceled, nor was there possibility for any replacement to be funded if it were
Some times bad intelligence estimate isn’t really bad intelligence estimate, it is one of several intelligence scenarios which were cherry picked for political reasons s to be released to the public to give cover to decisions made for other reasons..