J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII
- Thread starter siegecrossbow
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Oh I thought you meant there was a new image. I guess if it got taken down that means this is real and *something* is going on. Either the J-20 is getting a TVC WS-10 or its getting the WS-15. At the very least this confirms the J-20 is meant to have TVC. Best case scenario is that the WS-15 is not just indiscernible vaporware anymore.
Is there any reason why China does this? It's not like the Western intelligence agencies don't already know way more about China's military capabilities than badly photographed pictures allow them to. Just let Chinese netizens have their fun.
Well, actually, given how bad the US record on forecasting China’s military development has been, *and* given how China dismantled the CIA’s espionage ring in China a few years back...
How bad is US forecasting of China's military development? I doubt you have top secret clearance at the CIA or DIA. Nothing expressed in the US media is indicative of what the intelligence community knows.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Well lets remember if we were to go by US intelligence knowledge, no one was going to see China's mysterious J-XX stealth fighter not for another 5-10 years.
You need to have high enough noise for disinformation campaign to work. If all leaks are true or all leaks and false then deliberate false leaks would be useless.
You need to look no further than the early disinformation campaign for J-20 and the "4th generation fighter? No no we're working on a J-10 upgrade, it's probably like 3.7 or 3.8 generation."
I would put it this way. We don’t need top secret clearance to know that the US’s ability to forecast China’s military developments is bad, because US policy towards China’s military developments frequently reflect slow-footed, even panicked reactions (remember all that hoopla with Bob Gates during the week of the J-20’s first flight?). Either the information isn’t being collected or it’s not informing policymaking. There’s a myth of US intelligence capabilities being omniscient that’s neither a reflection of present reality or historical record. Back during the Cold War US intelligence frequently found itself surprised by Soviet tech developments, sometimes to the point of overcorrection (as we saw with early assessments of the Mig-25), as it does today with China’s.
Anyways, this is veering off topic so it’s the last I will say on the subject here.
Its very unlikely that the former is a reality.
The latter is the most plausible.
Externally, the dimensions of the aircraft may not change but I expect the serpentine inlets and even the DSI bump to change to be compatible with WS-15.
Ever since Gates (openly) made the assumptions that China won't be introducing J-20 before 2020, I've discounted western intelligence and their penetration into China. The best thing for the top brass of Pentagon to do was to stay silent. It was an eye opener.
One could make the argument that they indeed stepped up after that. But that's not one based on facts/ reveals.
The US's claim regarding the J-20 program was a factor of the WS-15 program. They were assuming the Chinese wouldn't attempt to IOC or first flight it without a functional WS-15. As is, their prediction about the WS-15 was correct, but their correlation to the J-20's readiness was not.
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As far as the Chinese seemingly removing the J-20 pictures in a useless manner, there are laws and concerns about classified information. It's not the pragmatic result regarding J-20 information leaks that matter for the PSB, but rather that these laws are enforced and concerns are respected. So yes, the leaks are going to get removed.
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As far as the Chinese seemingly removing the J-20 pictures in a useless manner, there are laws and concerns about classified information. It's not the pragmatic result regarding J-20 information leaks that matter for the PSB, but rather that these laws are enforced and concerns are respected. So yes, the leaks are going to get removed.
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