Perhaps the "number of J-20s built" actually differs a lot to the "number of J-20s delivered to the PLAAF"?
The article seems to be referring to the former.
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J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII
- Thread starter Blitzo
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The article seems to be referring to the former.
But still 100 per year equals to 3 if not 4 air brigades ... but where are they?
... because frankly speaking, I have no idea why does a guy who stroll around in a economy/finance-dominated website and talking about stocks would suddenly blabbers about J-20 production rate and numbers by 2025.
To be honest, I'd prefer to KIV for that.
In the meantime, however - I think that mentions by Shilao and Ayi should still be taken into consideration.
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CAC is publicly traded so people wants to know about the cash inflow.
Agree. Yet, I don't know how he managed to come to all those conclusions in the first place either.
Does he have contacts with insider? Or he's just an OSINT fella (like most of us here)?
I think the consensus that we had is that in 2022 they produced some 60-80 J-20s, leading to about 200 J-20s by the first couple of months of 2023.
The indicators that they would be producing/approaching 100 J-20s per year (maybe more like 90) in 2023, is by the end of the year, where we may see 280-300 J-20s produced total.
As I understand it, shouldn't it be more like 30 J-20s per unit?
If we look at 200 J-20s at the beginning of the year, if we take away some 20-30 divided between Dingxin and Cangzhou, that's about 170-180 J-20s, which equates to about 6 frontline brigades fully equipped, or potentially more brigades than that if multiple are being in converstion at once (which is more likely).
If they have up to 300 J-20s by end of 2023, then that's some 270-280 J-20s, which if it was divided fully among frontline brigades would be about 9 brigades, or more than that if multiple are being converted at once.
And it will only be from next year that 3.5 brigades worth of J-20s per year will be consistently produced, as I understand.
Considering PLA opsec, it all seems reasonable to me?
It's impressive that China can on-board existing brigades into J-20s so fast. How long does it take for a brigade to go from conversion to combat ready?
T
There are probably different levels of combat readiness attainment. A lot of the conversion from 3rd gen to 4th gen fighters took longer because there was such a large gap in technology and doctrine the whole force had to develop and learn. Gap from 4th gen to 5th gen is going to be a lot smaller.
Here's the procurement rate of the F-35 we do know of:
Program Year - Lot - Number (contracted?) - Delivery by Year
2007 - Lot 1+2 - 14 - 0
2008 - Lot 3 - 18 - 0
2009 - Lot 4 - 32 - 0
2010 - NA - NA - NA
2011 - Lot 5 - 32 - 9
2012 - Lot 6 - 36 - 29
2013 - Lot 7 - 35 - 35
2014 - Lot 8 - 43 - 36
2015 - Lot 9 - 55 - 45
2016 - Lot 10 - 90 - 46
2017 - Lot 11 - 141 - 66
2018 - Lot12 - 149 - 91
2019 - Lot 13 - 160 - 134
2020 - Lot 14 - 169 - 120
2021 - NA - NA - NA
2022 - NA - NA - NA
2023 - Lot 15 - 147 - ? (delayed by COVID-19)
NA = Not Available
Note that by the end of 2022, Lockheed Martin reported 141 deliveries, meaning that the global F-35 fleet stands at 894.
How do you guys infer (and compare to the J-20's procurement and production rate)?
Program Year - Lot - Number (contracted?) - Delivery by Year
2007 - Lot 1+2 - 14 - 0
2008 - Lot 3 - 18 - 0
2009 - Lot 4 - 32 - 0
2010 - NA - NA - NA
2011 - Lot 5 - 32 - 9
2012 - Lot 6 - 36 - 29
2013 - Lot 7 - 35 - 35
2014 - Lot 8 - 43 - 36
2015 - Lot 9 - 55 - 45
2016 - Lot 10 - 90 - 46
2017 - Lot 11 - 141 - 66
2018 - Lot12 - 149 - 91
2019 - Lot 13 - 160 - 134
2020 - Lot 14 - 169 - 120
2021 - NA - NA - NA
2022 - NA - NA - NA
2023 - Lot 15 - 147 - ? (delayed by COVID-19)
NA = Not Available
Note that by the end of 2022, Lockheed Martin reported 141 deliveries, meaning that the global F-35 fleet stands at 894.
How do you guys infer (and compare to the J-20's procurement and production rate)?
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Bilibili Up, named "家有神兽" has uploaded the third episode of the military micro film WWW3, co produced and filmed by Chinese military fans. The film takes the Sino Indian conflict as the background, and describes the scene of J20 team hunting Indian Air Force A50 and Rafale, which is very exciting and professional. Worth watching.
【【第三次世界大战】第三集完整版！展示现代战争的多种打法，几十款国产武器同时亮相】
【【第三次世界大战】第三集完整版！展示现代战争的多种打法，几十款国产武器同时亮相】