Wrong end!Does anyone have the un-cropped original? This has to be cropped from a high-resolution image that would be very nice to have.
J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
Thanks for tagging me and as I very briefly replied on Twitter, in fact I have NO CLUE AT ALL!
All I can say and as such repeat again, I had some very strange encounters while working for/with Jane's and my feeling tells me, they have a very high standard on what is rated proven/confirmed and a quite unique (to put it mildly) way of handling issues, which are not according to their database.
For example the WZ-7 with the serial number IMO clearly confirms it to be assigned to the 16th Specialised Division, 48th AR, the number alone says so ... the first image we've seen for a J-16 from the 78th AB, IMO a more than obvious issue ... for them not confirmed as such it cannot be written.
As such I'm MOST surprised, where such claims the 95th AB has converted to J-16 ... but what are the other four mentioned units, which unit is converting to J-20 as per their data and why are the numbers like they report them? I have higher numbers and even more so different units which are IMO more likely under conversion.
I didn't find much, though I believe that is from the recent WS-15 engine test they did, the ladder seems to match up with this image here:Does anyone have the un-cropped original? This has to be cropped from a high-resolution image that would be very nice to have.
Also a link here, shows it's testing flight on video. Quite cool stuff.
Hope that helps, I can try to do some more digging.
szbd
Junior Member
If we want precise thrust, we have to know the altitude and speed condition for the thrust. Which we can never know, unless they show us the graph.
Me again, after I spoke with the author:
Overall, as it seems to be these - lower than commonly accepted - numbers are based on a different methodology. For example as you all know, I'm a nerd on numbers, both serial numbers and even more so construction numbers: As such, my base for such estimations is the batch number * the number of aircraft per batch as the first pillar, second is the known units * the regular number of aircraft assigned to a full unit (plus corrections by the highest serial number known within a certain unit). Overall this fits most often quite nicely but units in formation or under transition or in case we simply do not know the highest number it has a margin of error.
And that's where Jane's has a different methodology as far as I understand their way: They too use two pillars to estimate the numbers, namely the highest number of aircraft spotted at a certain base over a longer period and second the highest serial number known within a certain unit.
In consequence, this must result to much lower numbers but it surely is the methodology, which is more on the "safe side".
Both Shilao and Ayi have claimed J-20 production was in 3 digit. In fact Ayi did so again just yesterday when someone asked him to confirm again:
The ballpark claim itself is something that we've been expecting for a while, and of course building 500 or more J-20s by 2025 is definitely within reason just by the maths of it (by early 2023 they were at 200ish J-20s, so by end of 2025 if they averaged 100 J-20s a year they'd of course get to/past 500). And it also makes sense that pulse production is in place, that's just the modern norm these days.
But I'm not sure what about that person's/write up's statements and numbers are of particular authority or whether "120 a year" should be something we consider as definite.
Well ... in fact I'm still "cautious"! With CB07156 seen in January allegedly during its maiden flight, I would rate 156 as almost confirmed by January, so 200 in mid-2023 are similar sure. As such an annual rate of 60-80 are indeed highly likely, but I miss any proof for new units!
200 in service given with about 20 each per unit - since some are still under conversion - would mean, about 10 to maybe 12 units flying this type even more so when considering the two FTTB unit do not have a full complement. But where are they?