If we're talking about, say, 1000 J-20 - we're talking about overall lifetime cost in the order of(up to) ~half a trillion usd.
That's a lot of money, for economy of any size.
J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII
- Thread starter Blitzo
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That's a lot of money, for economy of any size.
If lifetime is 20 years that’s 25 billion a year. If it’s 30 years that’s 16 billion. That’s not *that* much money relative to annual gdp or the annual military budget.
There are also benefits to standardizing production of one particular fighter and one particular engine. Producing ~100 J-20 airframes and ~300 WS-15 engines annually isn't that much more expensive than a mix of J-20s and J-31s, and their respective engines, if you include R&D, etc.
Scaling up J-20 production, and concentrating R&D into improving the platform and lowering its maintenance costs is probably the smartest approach, especially when realistic conflict scenarios favor a large platform.
The main risk of this approach is that the capabilities of other defense contractors whither compared to Chengdu, which is why it's good that Shenyang is working on some products at a slower pace and in a less expensive manner, for the long haul.
I wouldn't speculate on the lifetime cost of a fleet of 1,000 J-20s, but I'm sure basing it on US costs is completely incorrect and misleading. However, let's say that $500 billion is accurate. First, that's amortized of the decades-long lifetime of the fleet. Second, China's economy today is $33 trillion and still growing rapidly. Third, and most importantly, China's strategic and security objectives demand a fleet of J-20s on this scale.
Yes, but air superiority fighter is one of a myriad of requirements - one of the more important ones, sure - and only so much money can be devoted to this specific niche.
IMHO, it's paramount to get as much 'bang' as possible out of that money.
Air superiority is only one of the J-20's roles. We emphasize it here to counter the stupidity going around mainstream PLA/China commentary that the J-20 is an interceptor, but in reality the J-20 is a multirole aircraft with an early mission emphasis on air superiority. As upgrades and new munitions became available - not to mention the growth in numbers - the J-20's role has expanded beyond air superiority.
J-20 procurement is one of the best ways for the PLA to spend money. Only nuclear submarine procurement and improving the strategic deterrent is more critical.
TBH, I doubt procuring more than one (manned) fighter models for each of the service branch (PLAAF and PLANAF) going forward will be seriously pursued, especially regarding China's next-generation aerial combat systems.
Given how increasingly powerful and capable fighters of the future are expected to become, I do believe that there will only be one model of manned fighter which is large-size, heavy-weight and with twin engines going forward (6th-gen fighter, i.e. 6DJ-XX). The manned fighters will then be complemented by UCAVs that can either be:
- Medium-size, medium-weight and with single/twin engines (high-end UCAV, i.e. HE-UCAVs); or
- Small-size, light-weight and with single engine (low-end UCAV, i.e. LE-UCAVs); or
- Both deployed simultaneously.
HE-UCAVs will be the more complex, more capable, higher degree of autonomy, better speed & endurance capabilities, less expendable, and available in smaller numbers; while LE-UCAVs will be the less complex, less capable, lower degree of autonomy, moderate speed & endurance capabilities, more expendable, and available in larger numbers. HE-UCAVs would be closer to the likes of Dark Sword or Kizilelma-C, while LE-UCAVs would be closer to the likes of XQ-58 or Longshot.
In essence, the 6DJ-XX will play the role of J-11s, while the HE-UCAV and/or LE-UCAV will play the role of J-10s in aerial operations of the coming future.
Given how increasingly powerful and capable fighters of the future are expected to become, I do believe that there will only be one model of manned fighter which is large-size, heavy-weight and with twin engines going forward (6th-gen fighter, i.e. 6DJ-XX). The manned fighters will then be complemented by UCAVs that can either be:
- Medium-size, medium-weight and with single/twin engines (high-end UCAV, i.e. HE-UCAVs); or
- Small-size, light-weight and with single engine (low-end UCAV, i.e. LE-UCAVs); or
- Both deployed simultaneously.
HE-UCAVs will be the more complex, more capable, higher degree of autonomy, better speed & endurance capabilities, less expendable, and available in smaller numbers; while LE-UCAVs will be the less complex, less capable, lower degree of autonomy, moderate speed & endurance capabilities, more expendable, and available in larger numbers. HE-UCAVs would be closer to the likes of Dark Sword or Kizilelma-C, while LE-UCAVs would be closer to the likes of XQ-58 or Longshot.
In essence, the 6DJ-XX will play the role of J-11s, while the HE-UCAV and/or LE-UCAV will play the role of J-10s in aerial operations of the coming future.
China's GDP in current PPP dollars in 2022 amounted to 30.33 trillion according to the .
The manufacturing share of the economy amounted to 27.7% for the same year, i.e. 8.41 trillion PPP dollars.
For comparison's sake, the comparable figures for the U.S. are 25.46 trillion and ~2.5 trillion (for 2021), respectively.
I doubt the J-31 will ever enter service.
I think its naval derivative, the J-35, will join the J-15 in active service with the PLANAF, whereas the PLAAF will focus on fielding a mix of J-20s and J-16s. I expect the J-15 and J-35 to be procured in incremental quantities and, given the PLANAF's divestment of its shore-based fleet, to track the expansion of the carrier fleet.
The J-15 and J-16 can carry a higher payload than the J-20 and the J-35, and will serve as long-range maritime / strike fighters, as well as EW/SEAD/DEAD platforms in their "D" variants.
The J-20 and J-35 will primarily serve in an air superiority role, with the latter also having a main maritime strike mission.
I expect the AESA-equipped J-10C and J-11B (with upgrade) to be retained for a while, but for all other tactical combat aircraft types to be retired within the decade.
Overall, I expect the PLAAF to stabilize at a force of ~55 / ~57 combat Air Brigades with ~1,650 / ~1,710 first-line aircraft, with the PLANAF adding ~48 J-15 and J-35 for each Type 003/004/+ carrier subsequently added to the fleet.
What about J10As upgraded with air-cooled AESA?