J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

[Blitzo]

Can you with your clout PM him on weibo and find out what he means for us?

I don't have a Weibo account, and to be honest I don't think we should care that much if they aren't interested in being more publicly clear of their own accord.

I for one think that we have enough indicators prior to this for us to already have a decent estimate as to how many J-20s we can expect this year, and this Weibo post doesn't actually add anything to us.

 

[latenlazy]

Honestly what’s the value of getting so stingy about J-20 vs F-35 procurement numbers? We know J-20 production is going up to triple digits soon if not now and F-35 production is going through some rough patches but is largely already a committed production rate long term and those numbers are just going to be those numbers and they’re now in ballpark of each other. The rest is just insecurity motivated dick measuring contest. There isn’t much real value in getting retentive about whether J-20 production might have surpassed F-35 production by a handful of airframes.

 

[TK3600]

We should not celeberate going over American because they suffered minor hiccup. Save the celebration when we beat them fair at their normal 150 production rate. I said it and I will say it again. Peak Chinese 5th gen production rate will hit 200. This obviously includes J-31 and a possible export variant. Many people laughed at me and say even 100 is unrealistic. Look where we are now. We know J-20 is still scaling up. Right now it is not using its intended WS-15. We can only see the number go up once it is in 'complete form'. At the same time J-31 is not officially full production either. Combined peak rate should hit 200 annually. Don't say not enough pilots, simply replacing old flankers and early J-10 will free up plenty of pilots.

 

[Blitzo]

Honestly what’s the value of getting so stingy about J-20 vs F-35 procurement numbers? We know J-20 production is going up to triple digits soon if not now and F-35 production is going through some rough patches but is largely already a committed production rate long term and those numbers are just going to be those numbers and they’re now in ballpark of each other. The rest is just insecurity motivated dick measuring contest. There isn’t much real value in getting retentive about whether J-20 production might have surpassed F-35 production by a handful of airframes.

If there was some kind of clear statement as to precise numbers then it would be useful for the sake of having a number we can cite.

But it's pretty obvious that there's no number in mind, only a range, and even the range itself is something that's been floated since the beginning of the year, so even all of the detailed assessment of numbers and intentions is just a waste of time.


I wish there was any easier way to tell people to "don't do a thorough analysis of this" but if someone makes an attempt at it, then I have to go through the whole process of demonstrating why it's actually a waste of time.

We should not celeberate going over American because they suffered minor hiccup. Save the celebration when we beat them fair at their normal 150 production rate. I said it and I will say it again. Peak Chinese 5th gen production rate will hit 200. This obviously includes J-31 and a possible export variant. Many people laughed at me and say even 100 is unrealistic. Look where we are now. We know J-20 is still scaling up. Right now it is not using its intended WS-15. We can only see the number go up once it is in 'complete form'. At the same time J-31 is not officially full production either. Combined peak rate should hit 200 annually. Simply replacing old flankers and early J-10 will free up plenty of pilots.

The whole point of this thing is that there should be no celebration or disappointment or any emotions at all.

The only partially useful aspect is giving us further indicators as to how many J-20s we can expect this year -- and when I say "partially useful" I mean barely useful at all, because we already have an estimate from the beginning of the year anyway.

 

[TK3600]

If there was some kind of clear statement as to precise numbers then it would be useful for the sake of having a number we can cite.

But it's pretty obvious that there's no number in mind, only a range, and even the range itself is something that's been floated since the beginning of the year, so even all of the detailed assessment of numbers and intentions is just a waste of time.


I wish there was any easier way to tell people to "don't do a thorough analysis of this" but if someone makes an attempt at it, then I have to go through the whole process of demonstrating why it's actually a waste of time.






The whole point of this thing is that there should be no celebration or disappointment or any emotions at all.

The only partially useful aspect is giving us further indicators as to how many J-20s we can expect this year -- and when I say "partially useful" I mean barely useful at all, because we already have an estimate from the beginning of the year anyway.

If anything my gut tells me he knew from us, not other way around.

 

[Blitzo]

If anything my gut tells me he knew from us, not other way around.

I doubt that; the information we had has been circulating on the Chinese side for way longer.

The idea of 100 plus-ish J-20s being produced this year is really not too controversial at all and info generally doesn't circulate from forums here.



This entire thing is a non-event.

 

[Deino]

The one on top is posted new but it seems to be the same image like the previously posed partially psed one added here below for comparison.

 

[Gloire_bb]

We should not celeberate going over American because they suffered minor hiccup. Save the celebration when we beat them fair at their normal 150 production rate. I said it and I will say it again. Peak Chinese 5th gen production rate will hit 200. This obviously includes J-31 and a possible export variant. Many people laughed at me and say even 100 is unrealistic. Look where we are now. We know J-20 is still scaling up. Right now it is not using its intended WS-15. We can only see the number go up once it is in 'complete form'. At the same time J-31 is not officially full production either. Combined peak rate should hit 200 annually. Don't say not enough pilots, simply replacing old flankers and early J-10 will free up plenty of pilots.

Not sure that many heavy fighters (and outproducing upfront lighter, single engined F-35s) is a sustainable goal...
Given the known F-16 and even Mig-29 price ratios(relative to F-15 and Su-27) - J-20 output is probably already more expensive than a comparable(to F-35 numbers) Chinese "LFX" would be...

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Not sure that many heavy fighters (and outproducing upfront lighter, single engined F-35s) is a sustainable goal...

What do you think the size of the Chinese economy is and what is manufacturing's share of that economy?

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Not sure that many heavy fighters (and outproducing upfront lighter, single engined F-35s) is a sustainable goal...
Given the known F-16 and even Mig-29 price ratios(relative to F-15 and Su-27) - J-20 output is probably already more expensive than a comparable(to F-35 numbers) Chinese "LFX" would be...

That creates the question whether it makes sense to even have a high low mix when it comes to fighter planes in this modern context. We have strong air defense SAM dominance, high use of drones for air strikes, high use of missiles. Also the large distances involved in the pacific requires large fighters with really long range. So, what is the point of a small fighter with low range, much smaller radar and armament capability. You cannot use them over long distances, much cheaper and better to use missiles and drones for air strikes and CAS roles.

The only utility they have is cheapness which means better Air to ground cost, much higher number of units can be bought but maybe less useful when missiles and drones can take up the slack for ground attack role, even interceptor role for air defense is less useful when you have strong power air defense missiles like S-400 or HQ-9 B available.

Maybe that's why PLAAF has pretty much went all in with J-20 instead of also funding J-31 for a high-low mix. Maybe they want a high only mix.