J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

[kwaigonegin]

Jane's has missed so much and me too, I am disappointed but ... and in fact that was one of the reasons for me to quit since they have a very special own way of taking something for "confirmed". I remember back then when the WZ-7 was seen for the first time with a serial number and I wrote in my report that it is assigned to the 16th Air Division, 48th Air Regiment since it carries a 21x7x serial numbers.
They replied, I could not be sure even more since there is no 48th AR active according to their own data-base ... my reply, that's in fact the news about it since 21x7x confirms the 48th as re-established was again turned down since they could use only something as confirmed when it fits their database.


Anyway, I spoke to the Satellite imagery guy working for Jane's and he explained me that in contrast to me, who uses a combination of factors to calculate such numbers, they just take the highest number of aircraft spotted at a certain time on a certain base.

So in case for the 4th AB at Foshan, they maybe count only 6 since only 6 are visible, whereas I look the the serial numbers and see the highest one confirmed for the 4th AB is 61252 aka 22, so per my calculation, Foshan has already at least 22 J-20.

Jane's stopped becoming relevant in the early 2000s.. even the paid subscription is mediocre as well. I would take CSIS analysis over Jane's and CSIS is far from the gold standard either.

 

[Stealthflanker]

I believe that if PLAAF wants a fighter that serves as a missile truck via external pylons, they will continue to use existing platforms such as J-16, rather than replace them with J-20S.
It doesn't make much sense to make the "upgrade" to a stealth fighter if the stealth fighter's primary advantage (stealth) is completedly negated by the massive missiles you stick on the external pylons.

Well, i wonder what you think with F-35's "Beast mode" or Su-57 being tested with external weapons ?

One important thing is streamlining the fleet. The lesser amount of types of fighters you need to maintain, the better. Lesser maintenance costs, simpler logistics as you only need to procure or build parts for one or two kinds of fighter. If say J-10's engine can be unified to WS-15 you gain even simpler logistics as technician or engine mechanics from J-10 can easily handle J-20's engine without or need just a little additional training.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Is there any specific purpose left for the J-16 mission wise once the dual seater J-20S comes out? Other than keeping Shenyang alive that is.

J-20S is a bit of a demonstrator in the sense that AVIC gave the engineers free rein to do whatever the hell they wanted to with it. There is no hard deadline or anything like that, so there is no guarantee that it will enter service en mass at a specific period like other J-20 variants.

 

[Deino]

Are we still in the J-20 thread or is this why the PLAAF does not purchase any more J-10?

 

[Blitzo]

Various off topic posts over the last few days deleted.

Come on this isn't the J-10 thread or talking about single engine versus twin engine fighters.

 

[minime]

Anyway, I spoke to the Satellite imagery guy working for Jane's and he explained me that in contrast to me, who uses a combination of factors to calculate such numbers, they just take the highest number of aircraft spotted at a certain time on a certain base.

So in case for the 4th AB at Foshan, they maybe count only 6 since only 6 are visible, whereas I look the the serial numbers and see the highest one confirmed for the 4th AB is 61252 aka 22, so per my calculation, Foshan has already at least 22 J-20.

You can't blame them only trust their own source.
Or take Jane's for the bare minimum number.

 

[gelgoog]

Janes don't trust number counting because the numbers can just be painted over and over again on the same aircraft. Making it seem you have more than you actually do. Or the opposite. They might paint the same numbers on more than one aircraft.

 

[by78]

J-20A. No serials and not sure when this was taken.

 

[CMP]

Janes don't trust number counting because the numbers can just be painted over and over again on the same aircraft. Making it seem you have more than you actually do. Or the opposite. They might paint the same numbers on more than one aircraft.

Janes hasn't been accurate since the 90s.

 

[Deino]

J-16 is a dedicated missile truck. Until PLA brings out something that can haul lots of things of varying sizes to the battle, I think they will keep churning more of them out even if J-20S enters full production.

Everyone is having most of their 4th gen platforms become missile trucks staying further behind to launch missiles.

But an interesting concept, maybe in the future PLA acquires Su-57 (or license to produce a J- version) to replace the J-16.
Su-57 is not as stealthy so having it performing a missile truck role won't hurt its performance.

Once again: CAN WE STOP DISCUSSING THAT OPTION? Just a few days ago several pages of speculative BS needed to be deleted and anyone who still thinks, there might be the slightest chance of China procuring or even producing Su-57s as a J-XX might do some reality check!

Really?? We are not in the what if forum!