J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

[siegecrossbow]

Continued...

Into the 2020s


Going into the 2020s, J-20 production using interim engines (whether it be Al-31 variants or WS-10 variants as recently hinted) will likely be further expanded. The WS-15 is may be ready by the mid 2020s, at which point J-20 production will likely shift to using that powerplant. It is likely that a WS-15 powered J-20 may receive a new variant designation entirely (such as J-20B), but it is not known if such an aircraft will undergo any significant physical redesigns. It is also not known whether other physically different

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of the J-20 (such as a tandem seat variant) may be produced, despite some unsubstantiated rumors over the years.


The 2020s will also raise the question of just how many J-20s the PLA will eventually seek to acquire. Currently it is strongly indicated that the PLA Navy’s 5th generation carrier fighter will be derived from the FC-31, but it is not known if a future land based variant may also be produced to provide a medium weight 5th generation complement to the J-20. Therefore, the exact composition of the PLA’s overall 5th generation fighter fleet into the late 2020s cannot be predicted.


That said, given the projected numbers of F-35s that will enter service with the United States and various nations in the western Pacific region, it is likely that the PLA recognizes the need to keep up with its own 5th generation fleet. The J-20 will remain the only in production 5th generation fighter for the PLA going into the mid 2020s at least (whereby a carrier variant FC-31 might finish development and begin production), and it currently seems unlikely the PLA will cease J-20 production before the early 2030s.


During the late Cold War the U.S. Air Force

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to procure 750 Advanced Tactical Fighters (the program that gave birth to the F-22); however, post-Cold War threat assessments as well as the development of the F-35 gradually reduced 750 to the 187 F-22s ultimately produced for service. It is difficult to envision the PLA would be content with only about 200 J-20s given the threat profile they will face into the late 2020s and early 2030s. But it is also rather early to seriously suggest what kind of production run the J-20 may ultimately enjoy going into that time period, not least due to the difficulty of predicting what future geopolitical and economic trajectories China and the region may undergo in the intervening period. Therefore, it is very difficult to predict the final production run of J-20s at this stage despite what we know about the PLA’s likely 5th generation requirements going forwards.​

 

[SpicySichuan]

Continued...

200 J-20s would probably not be enough, but given China's economic slowdown (and U.S.-China Trade War and economic isolation starting to bite), I am not sure if the PLA could afford several hundred J-20s during the mid. 2020s.

 

[Pika]

Reading the Diplomat article provided by @siegecrossbow I feel caught up on J-20 developments. I stopped following its developments a couple years back.

 

[siegecrossbow]

200 J-20s would probably not be enough, but given China's economic slowdown (and U.S.-China Trade War and economic isolation starting to bite), I am not sure if the PLA could afford several hundred J-20s during the mid. 2020s.

They can if they cut down the number of 4.5th gens ordered.

 

[manqiangrexue]

200 J-20s would probably not be enough, but given China's economic slowdown (and U.S.-China Trade War and economic isolation starting to bite), I am not sure if the PLA could afford several hundred J-20s during the mid. 2020s.

The "slowdown" is successful transition from a low end high output manufacturing hub to a high end technology and innovation-driven economy. It is the ideal soft landing that critics said that China could not achieve. And what "isolation?" China's overall exports are growing every month and diversifying away from the US becoming larger and with more trade partners. The diminished importance of exports to America is not isolation by any stretch. I've no idea where you read your news from; even Trump and Kudlow aren't imaginative enough to make that up.

 

[manqiangrexue]

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You gotta indicate that this was written by Blitzo. I spent my entire time reading the article unable to concentrate on the subjects discussed because I was in awe at how devoid of bias and stupidity it was and how up-to-date it was on the engine situation. Usually, Western journalism on the Chinese military adamantly insist that the J-20 is an F-22 copy with the RCS of a barn house flying on WWII level engines/avionics and is only usable as a bomber/interceptor because it's 80 feet long and has a turn radius larger than most small countries. I had to open it in search of the author information to understand why it was so good.

 

[siegecrossbow]

You gotta indicate that this was written by Blitzo. I spent my entire time reading the article unable to concentrate on the subjects discussed because I was in awe at how devoid of bias and stupidity it was which are the norm for western journalism with analysis of the Chinese military. I had to open it in search of the author to understand why.

I thought everyone knew that Rick Joe was Bltizo? Either way I'm gonna edit my original thread to include the shout put.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

The "slowdown" is successful transition from a low end high output manufacturing hub to a high end technology and innovation-driven economy. It is the ideal soft landing that critics said that China could not achieve. And what "isolation?" China's overall exports are growing every month and diversifying away from the US becoming larger and with more trade partners. The diminished importance of exports to America is not isolation by any stretch. I've no idea where you read your news from; even Trump and Kudlow aren't imaginative enough to make that up.

The vast majority of people "commenting" on this topic - professionally or otherwise - are functionally innumerate. I would be surprised if any of them could answer the following basic arithmetic question and understand its significance to China's economic trajectory: which is the larger number, 6% of $30 trillion or 12% of $5 trillion?

Your time and mine would be better spent teaching what we're trying to teach to parrots, at least they're capable of regurgitating a correct statement if it's repeated often enough.

 

[Pika]

200 J-20s would probably not be enough, but given China's economic slowdown (and U.S.-China Trade War and economic isolation starting to bite), I am not sure if the PLA could afford several hundred J-20s during the mid. 2020s.

They will find a way to churn out several hundred J-20s. My estimates is 400+ jets at minimum; 150 J-20A (WS-10s and AL-31) and maybe 250+ J-20B (WS-15) by end of decade 2030.

In reality, looking at how South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and US are all arming up with the F-35 and F-16s, F-15s upgrades, PLAAF will need close to 1000 5th gen non-carrier born fighter jets to even things out; (700 J-20 variants and 300 some medium-weight fighter) + a 4.5 gen lightweight fighter but the J-10 fills this role fine.

 

[manqiangrexue]

They will find a way to churn out several hundred J-20s. My estimates is 400+ jets at minimum; 150 J-20A (WS-10s and AL-31) and maybe 250+ J-20B (WS-15) by end of decade 2030.

In reality, looking at how South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and US are all arming up with the F-35 and F-16s, F-15s upgrades, PLAAF will need close to 1000 5th gen non-carrier jets to even things out; (700 J-20 variants and 300 some medium-weight fighter) + a 4.5 gen lightweight fighter but the J-10 fills this role fine.

Well, the point of a 5th gen fighter is that you're not supposed to have to even out rival 4th gens on a 1 to 1 basis.

One huge obstacle to China churning out massive numbers is that Chinese tech improves so fast that before you can make too many of one thing (say J-20A), you get a stop order to change up your factory to upgrade for improvements (say J-20B) so the PLAAF tends to build in small batches with many pauses in between. The most recent example is the pause in J-20 manufacturing due to an engine upgrade from the AL-31 variant to the newer WS-10 variant, causing many people to think that perhaps they had run into serious problems. That's why the factories don't make nearly as many as they could if they just went on an uninterrupted marathon of building a locked design.