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of the J-20 was recently released as part of China’s recent defense
release titled “China’s Defense in a New Era.” Over the last few years, many photos of the J-20 5th generation fighter have been released, including photos of the J-20 in service with the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). However this J-20 bore a serial number indicating it belonged to a frontline combat unit, marking a major milestone for the aircraft. This piece will review the current status of the J-20, the number of aircraft that may exist, some recent developments observed with the J-20’s engine situation, and to project what may lie in the J-20’s future going into the 2020s.
Service Status
The J-20 was announced to have entered service by the PLAAF in late 2016, and then subsequently to have “been commissioned with combat troops” in February 2018. These announcements likely referred to the J-20 being activated in the Flight Test and Training Base in Dingxin and the Flight Training Base in Cangzhou, respectively.
These two units are sometimes referred to as 176th brigade and 172nd brigade respectively, but are more often referred to as simply “Dingxin” and “Cangzhou.” The unit in Dingxin has the role of developing and testing tactics, while Cangzhou serves the role of advanced training and as a combat reserve unit. Therefore, J-20s officially “entered PLAAF service” when Dingxin activated J-20s around late 2016, while J-20s entered service with “combat troops” in February 2018 when Cangzhou received their J-20s.
Rumors from late 2018 to early 2019 suggested the first regular frontline PLAAF unit to receive J-20s would be the 9th brigade located in Wuhu, under the Eastern Theater Command. A few video clips and pictures taken in early 2019 from the area suggested J-20s had indeed begun arriving at Wuhu, and satellite pictures taken of the 9th brigade in April demonstrated at least three J-20s were present at the unit. However, the picture released from the PLA of a J-20 with serial 62001 was the first clear evidence of a J-20 belonging to 9th brigade, fully confirming J-20’s status in a combat unit after almost a year of snowballing rumors, pictures and videos.
While this is a significant milestone, the exact current strength of J-20s in PLAAF service is not known, let alone the total number of production J-20s that have been constructed.
How many J-20s are there anyway?
Estimating the number of fighters in PLA service is difficult for most types, let alone one as new and significant as the J-20. Estimates are usually made by two major options:
- Option one: observing factory serial numbers from pictures taken of new airframes fresh from the production line.
- Option two: counting and extrapolating the number of confirmed in service serial numbers of an aircraft type.
Option one relies on having photographers on the ground located near a given aircraft factory who are not only willing to take pictures of aircraft and the factory but also willing to post pictures on the internet. Option one also relies on newly produced aircraft having obvious factory serial numbers applied to them, which is not a given. In the case of the J-20, the last three to four years has seen a significant drop of semi-regular, up to date pictures of the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC) compared to when the J-20 was in development between 2011 and 2016, where up to date pictures of new J-20 prototypes were relatively common. Since mid to late 2016, photos of CAC’s factory have been few and far between, and the pictures that are released often lack clear time indicators, making it near impossible to grasp the J-20’s production rate or pattern. This is further hindered by the lack of obvious production serials on the few J-20 pictures that are released.
Option two is similarly dependent on the release of photos of the J-20 in service bearing visible serial numbers. Such pictures can be revealed from official PLA sources (as in the case of 62001 from the 9th brigade), or it can be from photographers on the ground. However it is also common for enthusiast photographers to deliberately obscure serial numbers to avoid releasing potentially sensitive military information. The problem with option two is that airframes with visible serial numbers often may not represent the full strength of a unit’s aircraft. The 9th brigade is an excellent example — satellite
strongly suggest at least three J-20s were present as of April 2019, meaning the recent release of s/n 62001 almost certainly is only a small fraction of the actual strength in Wuhu.
Option two is useful for providing a “minimum floor” of confirmed J-20 airframes, with 13 unique serial numbers (including 62001) identified as of August 2019, distributed between Dingxin, Cangzhou, and Wuhu. However the actual number of J-20s in service and produced is likely to be much greater and the PLAAF is sensibly taking measures to avoid disclosing what the actual up to date quantity is.
