J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

[Biscuits]

200 J-20s would probably not be enough, but given China's economic slowdown (and U.S.-China Trade War and economic isolation starting to bite), I am not sure if the PLA could afford several hundred J-20s during the mid. 2020s.

China grew more this year than last year though... and grew more last year than it ever had done before. Looking at wage increases, employment rate etc shows that the economy is booming.

Several hundred J-20 (as in low hundreds) would easily be affordable, unless China cuts the PLA’s budget even further, but I don’t think they’ll do that. Any more budget cuts and China practically becomes a demilitarized country.

By 2025, US would likely maintain 400 F-35 (85 million $) and 200 F-22 (140 million $), using a budget 3 times the size of the Chinese one. However, the Chinese economy is 25% larger and by 2025, it could reasonably be 50% larger, which means US budget would only actually be 1.5 times as large in absolute numbers. PLAAF can easily maintain 300 J-20s at 120 million $ apiece.

 

[Deino]

Just a friendly reminder... no politics, no trade war discussion!

 

[Bhurki]

By 2025, US would likely maintain 400 F-35 (85 million $) and 200 F-22 (140 million $),

US already has taken delivery of close to 300 F-35 and is posed to procure over 100 units per year after FRP kicks in about a year. So by 2025, the total F-35 in service is likely to exceed 800 units and total of 1100 units for all partners.

 

[Air Force Brat]

US already has taken delivery of close to 300 F-35 and is posed to procure over 100 units per year after FRP kicks in about a year. So by 2025, the total F-35 in service is likely to exceed 800 units and total of 1100 units for all partners.

and sadly, we are down to 183 or so F-22 airframes, only 120 or so that are "combat coded... High end stealthy aircraft such as the F-22 and J-20 are extremely expensive, but if it was only money?? everybody would have 50 or 100??

With 13 known tail numbers of production standard aircraft, it would do well to remember that 5th Generation aircraft at the top end are very difficult to bring to fruition, and almost as difficult to maintain, its a little premature to assume that its all a "done deal" here on the front end of J-20 production.

Like those early F-35's that will likely never be fully combat coded and permanently assigned to test and eval, you move forward and do it as you are able, there's a valid reason we haven't seen J-20 production ramped up......

so far no one here has adequately explained it? it may simply be PLAAF priorities, or it could just be "real life" 5th Gen aircraft development/production issues??

or it could be as simple as the money? and China has lots of high end projects such as aircraft carriers that are taking up a similar amount of engineering, time, and money???

so we shall see???

 

[plawolf]

US already has taken delivery of close to 300 F-35 and is posed to procure over 100 units per year after FRP kicks in about a year. So by 2025, the total F-35 in service is likely to exceed 800 units and total of 1100 units for all partners.

And how many of them can the US deploy to the China theater? Even ignoring its global commitments and own homeland defence needs, just where would those 1k F35s operate from to be within strike range of China?

 

[Bhurki]

and sadly, we are down to 183 or so F-22 airframes, only 120 or so that are "combat coded... High end stealthy aircraft such as the F-22 and J-20 are extremely expensive, but if it was only money?? everybody would have 50 or 100??

As grinding and expensive as the task is to manufacture them, its even more difficult to service and maintain these warcrafts to their optimum capabilities. US learnt it the hard way with F-22, having a strenuous task at hand to ensure even 50% availability rates. Thats why, i think they are a step ahead when it comes to maintaining F-35 fleet. The main lessons were to achieve stealth to a degree that its helpful in operations while not being pain in the a*s to maintain. F-35 skin maintenenace is easier and lasts longer.
J-20 fleet maintainers are starting to grapple with that reality now, hence the low production numbers, as changes are periodically being made to stop it from becoming just a showcase tool with low numbers.

 

[Bhurki]

And how many of them can the US deploy to the China theater? Even ignoring its global commitments and own homeland defence needs, just where would those 1k F35s operate from to be within strike range of China?

There's an extensive RAND study on US offensive operations on mainland while using Japan amd Guam airbases as center of projection. It states there is room for some 8 fighter airwings for extended operations and more for surge.
I'd rather not clutter this thread with more information on hypothetical offense based in 2017, but the 1000+ F-35 will provide enough headroom to manage several theatres of conflict at the same time.(SCS, Taiwan)

 

[plawolf]

There's an extensive RAND study on US offensive operations on mainland while using Japan amd Guam airbases as center of projection. It states there is room for some 8 fighter airwings for extended operations and more for surge.
I'd rather not clutter this thread with more information on hypothetical offense based in 2017, but the 1000+ F-35 will provide enough headroom to manage several theatres of conflict at the same time.(SCS, Taiwan)

And that Rand study has been ripped to shreds.

F35 combat range: 770miles

Distance from Guam to Hong Kong: 2100miles

Using Guam as a base of operations is impossible without extensive tanker support. Good luck keeping those tankers alive with J20s roaming the skies.

Using Japanese bases is even more problematic in a Taiwan or SCS scenario.

And all of that does not even touch upon the long range missile strike capabilities of the PLA to reach out and touch said bases.

From an operational POV, the only F35s that would be relevant would be naval and STOVL F35B.

 

[Bhurki]

And that Rand study has been ripped to shreds.

F35 combat range: 770miles

Distance from Guam to Hong Kong: 2100miles

Using Guam as a base of operations is impossible without extensive tanker support. Good luck keeping those tankers alive with J20s roaming the skies.

Using Japanese bases is even more problematic in a Taiwan or SCS scenario.

And all of that does not even touch upon the long range missile strike capabilities of the PLA to reach out and touch said bases.

From an operational POV, the only F35s that would be relevant would be naval and STOVL F35B.

The entire scenario includes everything from bombers, fighters, recce etc planes.
Its quite exhaustive. It also includes 2 carrier based wings. Its kind of stupid to expect an offensive with just fighters, isn't it?. Though, i'd hoped you'd know better.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

The entire scenario includes everything from bombers, fighters, recce etc planes.
Its quite exhaustive. It also includes 2 carrier based wings. Its kind of stupid to expect an offensive with just fighters, isn't it?. Though, i'd hoped you'd know better.

And those carrier wing will have no home come to. They will ditch into the sea.
Come on bring the carrier