J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

[latenlazy]

Yes. But why would the PLAAF place such an order?

They should want the J-20 instead of a larger number of additional J-10s

you are absolutely right if PLAAF has no budget limit .... but unfortunately PLAAF do have budget limit

I am sure you are aware that J-20 is a very expensive, like ~2-3x of J-10B/C

I think you’re both missing that there are many situations where quantity is its own quality, especially in doctrines and strategies that emphasize network centric combat.

That said, I do think the PLAAF might end up procuring more stealth fighters than some of original low end estimates, but it may not be the J-20.

 

[DGBJCLAU]

I deliberately included the Q-5 as part of the example, in that the J-16 is exactly a contemporary comparable model as a strike fighter. The J-8 was in production as of the early 2000s (the H and F variants, and maybe more), plus J-7Es were produced until 2001 (and the J-7Gs for a few years more), so you are not correct there either.

J-10s entered service in 2006, it doesn't mean it was only produced since then.

Also yes you are right that SAC need contracts, while CAC has limited experience in striker fighters anyways.

Correction: regular production J-10s were delivered in 2003. I don't know why my edit is not shown.

I missed that part.

I suspect that the J-8 and J-7 were still produced for the interceptor role because they are cheap and and don't need to be highly manoeuvrable.
There's not a huge difference in performance in this role when compared to the J-10 and J-11, which are also non-stealthy.
So the J-7 and J-8 would complement the more expensive and higher performance J-10 and J-11.

But the primary J-10 mission is air superiority like the J-20. They're both produced at the same place, but the J-20 offers a much higher cost-effectiveness ratio than the J-10

Just some additional info just as supplement from the Chinese military aviation blog. Don't mind me, this is also for my own record:

The prototype of

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first flew in June 2002, following the end of J-7E's production in 2002. The introduction of J-7G suggested that the J-10 (even J-11) production has not been able to replace all J-7/8s completely. J-7G is serving alongside J-10 and J-11, in a "high-low" combination. The first batch of 16 were delivered to PLAAF in October 2004. Another 32 were delivered in 2006 (S/N

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,

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).

The aircraft first flew in 2000 and test-fired 4 rounds of PL-12 AAMs successfully in spring 2004. ... J-8F has been in service with PLAAF since 2003 (S/N

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,

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,

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).

The flight test of J-10 was completed by the end of 2003 and the serial production started earlier that year. ... The first 9 (?) were delivered to the PLAAF Flight Test & Training Base for evaluation starting from February 2003. After some delay due the problems of fire-control system, J-10 was finally certified by the end of 2003. The first

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regiment was established in 2004 ...

link:

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[Dizasta1]

I've read this debate about J-10 production and J-20. Guys, this isn't how this works. For even with F-35s çhurned out, the USA will still keep its F-15Es, not only that, there are reports of USAF intending to buy F-15X which is a derivative of the latest F-15s. The F-15X would replace the F-15Cs. Again, this is despite the F-35s production run of 1200 fighters to renew USAF fighter fleet.

J-20s are China's premier stealth jet, and it's production run would be according to China's strategic requirements. J-10Cs will be produced in large numbers. As they will not only replace the J-7s, A-5s but also the J-10As. The fighter is primed for air combat, it is a very potent jet and represents as the cornerstone in Chinese aviation industry's evolution.

If you stop J-10 production, then what will you replace all those J-7s, A-5s, J-8s and etc with? J-31s? Not quite, not yet anyways. And even with J-31s reaching serial production, J-10Cs would still be manufactured, not just for PLAAF, but for export orders as well, for quite some time to come.

You don't just invest in the development and evolution of a fighter jet, and stop production just because you have a Gen-5 Stealth Fighter. That would be an absurd decision to make. Continue production of J-10Cs, replace all those 1970s fighters in PLAAF inventory. And along with that, pick up several orders from foreign countries, for the J-10s. It's a win, win!

I foresee J-10s evolve further, with CFT or other alternatives, TVNs as standard, heck even a larger variant of it, like Boeing did with F/A-18C Hornets. J-10s already are badass fighters, they are destined to become even more awesome.

 

[ougoah]

Not sure if we can accurately guess at PLAAF's acquisition planning. One thing I didn't see mentioned is the utility of older generations (compared to J-20) in creating more noise in the environment and using these as potential targets. The internal missile space on a F-22 or F-35 is invaluable. Not all missile launches result in a hit and not all hits result in loss. Therefore fighters like J-10 and J-11 can serve as sponges soaking up missiles launched by F-22s and F-35s and either scooting away or dodging them where they can. I'm sure this was also the thinking behind keeping J-7 production back when J-11s and J-10s were also produced during their initial stages. Even today, J-7s and J-8s can serve the role of creating more targets and noise in the air. Every missile shot out of an F-22 is one less aimed at a J-20 or J-16 in its limited bay. Flying back to Okinawa or Pacific bases will take time.

J-10s and J-11s are most likely cheaper and quicker to build than J-20s. They can carry far more effective ordinance than J-20 and are not limited in the types of ordinance e.g. heavy bombs and long range missiles. Therefore they have almost as much importance to PLAAF as J-20 does. It's not all an air-superiority high end fight. Most missions can be BETTER done by fourth gens that can carry far more. Particularly if PLAAF is defending and PLA should have ground support.

Meteor and AIM-120D are missiles that have improved the kill probability so there's a chance scooting away and using different tactics in bleeding missile energy won't work in dodging them. Fighters have fuel advantage and at end of missile's kill ranges (non-duel motor types) the missile can be defeated by high speed tight turns where the evading fighter burns through a lot of fuel but should easily be able to dodge heavy medium and long range missiles. That's where stealth fighters for PLAAF is a must have. Not only to go up against USAF 5th gens but to be active in denying airspace to USAF upgraded 4th gens and all heavy supporting assets. PLAAF needs numbers and missiles in the air to support J-20 operations in the front line fights. Drones are another rich area for exploitation in this regard.

 

[latenlazy]

Not sure if we can accurately guess at PLAAF's acquisition planning. One thing I didn't see mentioned is the utility of older generations (compared to J-20) in creating more noise in the environment and using these as potential targets. The internal missile space on a F-22 or F-35 is invaluable. Not all missile launches result in a hit and not all hits result in loss. Therefore fighters like J-10 and J-11 can serve as sponges soaking up missiles launched by F-22s and F-35s and either scooting away or dodging them where they can. I'm sure this was also the thinking behind keeping J-7 production back when J-11s and J-10s were also produced during their initial stages. Even today, J-7s and J-8s can serve the role of creating more targets and noise in the air. Every missile shot out of an F-22 is one less aimed at a J-20 or J-16 in its limited bay. Flying back to Okinawa or Pacific bases will take time.

J-10s and J-11s are most likely cheaper and quicker to build than J-20s. They can carry far more effective ordinance than J-20 and are not limited in the types of ordinance e.g. heavy bombs and long range missiles. Therefore they have almost as much importance to PLAAF as J-20 does. It's not all an air-superiority high end fight. Most missions can be BETTER done by fourth gens that can carry far more. Particularly if PLAAF is defending and PLA should have ground support.

Meteor and AIM-120D are missiles that have improved the kill probability so there's a chance scooting away and using different tactics in bleeding missile energy won't work in dodging them. Fighters have fuel advantage and at end of missile's kill ranges (non-duel motor types) the missile can be defeated by high speed tight turns where the evading fighter burns through a lot of fuel but should easily be able to dodge heavy medium and long range missiles. That's where stealth fighters for PLAAF is a must have. Not only to go up against USAF 5th gens but to be active in denying airspace to USAF upgraded 4th gens and all heavy supporting assets. PLAAF needs numbers and missiles in the air to support J-20 operations in the front line fights. Drones are another rich area for exploitation in this regard.

Put it simply, stealth is an offensive attribute for strike missions, but a defensive attribute for A2A missions. That said, if the purpose of acquiring more stealth fighters is to help survivability against more advanced missiles, wouldn’t more powerful jammers be a better and more effective investment?

 

[ougoah]

Better to be actively developing and investing in both sides. Which I'm sure is what most are doing... if they can afford to.

It's like the common western argument that because China allegedly spies so much on the US in military technology, it mustn't be able to "invent" or innovate their own technology or do anything by themselves. While the US spied on other nations and even acquired their technologies through legal and illegal methods, like Project Constant Peg (and the other programs that are undisclosed and others I haven't listed), it is to investigate and assess enemy technology. Once China or any other nation does it, it is to copy and the conclusion is they cannot do it otherwise. China spies for many different reasons. None of them too different from why any other nation operates spy programs. Of course since China is relatively behind the US, if they find great things worth copying, they will, exactly like the Soviets and US did to others in the past.

So just because China is investing significantly into stealth technology and aircrafts, it does not mean it doesn't have excellent counters to them or that the counters don't work. They do. That doesn't stop a nation from actively developing newer aircraft technologies. It's all an ongoing development, partly aimed at forcing the others to counter and invest resources into developing counters. Whoever lasts the longest, wins.

 

[latenlazy]

Better to be actively developing and investing in both sides. Which I'm sure is what most are doing... if they can afford to.

It's like the common western argument that because China allegedly spies so much on the US in military technology, it mustn't be able to "invent" or innovate their own technology or do anything by themselves. While the US spied on other nations and even acquired their technologies through legal and illegal methods, like Project Constant Peg (and the other programs that are undisclosed and others I haven't listed), it is to investigate and assess enemy technology. Once China or any other nation does it, it is to copy and the conclusion is they cannot do it otherwise. China spies for many different reasons. None of them too different from why any other nation operates spy programs. Of course since China is relatively behind the US, if they find great things worth copying, they will, exactly like the Soviets and US did to others in the past.

So just because China is investing significantly into stealth technology and aircrafts, it does not mean it doesn't have excellent counters to them or that the counters don't work. They do. That doesn't stop a nation from actively developing newer aircraft technologies. It's all an ongoing development, partly aimed at forcing the others to counter and invest resources into developing counters. Whoever lasts the longest, wins.

Sure, but it’s one thing to invest in a technology, and yet another to procure it in a platform. The question here is what the mix of procurement is, not what the mix of investment is.

 

[gelgoog]

China continued J-8 production until the early 2000s for several reasons. But I think the main reason was that it remained (barely) competitive and was a fully indigenous design.
This meant it was not dependent on imports like the J-11 which used Russian engines. Even Japan, to this day, still has not fully retired the F-4 Phantom which is a design of a similar technological level as the J-8.

This is not the case with the J-16 since that uses indigenous engines. So I expect it to have a long and enduring production run. Especially because the airplanes it replaces (Q-5/JH-7) are themselves stop gaps with much lower technological finesse and capabilities. The J-16 is superior in all performance parameters of merit. The performance gap is huge.

However the twin engine J-20 is not cost effective as a replacement for something like the single engine J-10. I expect the J-20 to replace the twin engine J-8 and the J-11 as front line fighters but it is not cost effective as a single engine J-10/J-7 replacement or as a single engine F-35 competitor. Once the higher thrust engine for the J-20 becomes available I think the production rate for the J-20 will increase. There is no reason why it would have a lower production rate than the J-16 for example. Especially given it is crucial in order for China to retain its competitiveness as the F-35 becomes widely deployed in South Korea and Japan and they have no direct equivalent. This means manufacturing it in numbers to just compete with the F-22 will not be enough.

I do not think the Chinese need to replace their fleet with an all stealth fleet however. It is perfectly reasonable to equip the other non-stealth aircraft as bomb trucks. The J-20 would be the leading edge of the attack to eliminate the best enemy fighter aircraft while the non-stealth fighters would mop up the rest. The fact remains that a lot of the aircraft in the Chinese neighborhood for the next decades will not be stealth at all. Take India as an example. The best aircraft currently being purchased by them is the Rafale. It makes no sense to just dump aircraft which are still competitive. Especially when you still have so many hopelessly obsolete aircraft like the J-7, J-8, Q-5, JH-7 still in service.

 

[ougoah]

Exactly. It makes no sense to put all your eggs in the stealth basket. Newer and better technologies will come out. What then when you have hundreds and maybe even a thousand stealth fighters? Not as much funding for new platforms and counter stealth as one would have had with a more measured procurement plan. There is a delicate optimal balance that we are unable to assess. The fact that J-10 platform continues to be upgraded and new models continue to be produced at the same if not higher rate than before, along with the ever-increasing expansion of the flanker based platform in PLAAF, goes some way to prove that 5th gen frames (stealthiness not avionics) are NOT going to stay the ultimate game changer for all that long. Just like Type 052B and 052C were evaluated in small batches, and further improvements made before any sort of volume was ordered.

PLAAF needs stealth for now and to deal with periphery adversaries as well as serve as a platform to take PLAAF doctrines and strategies into the 21st century against superior and near peer adversaries. It is important for AVIC and all the engineers and researchers and manufacturers to learn develop and master new technologies and techniques. J-20 is not to be mass produced in their thousands to counter USAF + allied F-35s in some sort of end of world stalemate fight like some imagine (there are enough deterences for that already unless the US somehow can stop all Chinese ICBMs). It is a step in the journey of reaching eventual industrial and technological parity to the US.

 

[Hyperwarp]

May I ask you ... what other jet fighters in the world that better than J-10C or J-11B/D ? apart from F-22 and F-35 ? .. the answer is NONE right?

***

Huh?

Other than a few prototypes, J-11D doesn't exist. There are a number of aircraft in the world better than the J-11B. One-on-one, the Indian Air Force Su-30MKI has the upper hand in both WVR and BVR. If it were the J-16, then thing changes heavily. J-16 is in a league of its own be it avionics and/or air-to-air weapons carried (PL-15, PL-10).

J-10C is a much tougher opponent. But even then, you get the F-16 Block 60 which is probably the most advance single-engined fighter after the F-35. Beyond single-engined fighters, you also get the good old Rafale and Eurofighter (Especially the Rafale). The is also the USN F/A-18E/F.