J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

[DaTang cavalry]

More J20 will appear at the Zhuhai Air Show, which is for sure.
It's not difficult to have a static display, but I believe people can only watch it from a distance.

 

[Inst]

September 2, 2018: China has admitted that production of its first stealth fighter, the J20 is stalled and the manufacturer confirmed the reasons why. The details were explained on state run television, in part to help recruit the skilled workers needed to produce the J20. These is a shortage of labor in China, largely because of the decades of low birth rates mandated by the “one child” policy. The Chinese aircraft manufacturing industry, for both military and commercial aircraft, is booming and workers able to fabricate and assemble components are in short supply. Building the J20 requires a disproportionate number of skilled workers. Parts of the fuselage are made of alloys that are particularly time-consuming to mold and then fabricate into complex structures. Many of the components come from Chinese suppliers who are still developing and perfecting their production capabilities. The J20 requires a lot of exotic components and supplies are tight. China also revealed that development of the J20 has, so far cost $4.4 billion and that the construction cost doe each aircraft is $110 million. In addition to the manufacturing difficulties there are performance problems with the prototypes and six production models already turned over to the Chinese Air Force.

China declared that its J20 stealth fighter had officially entered service in September 2017 but even then it was obvious (via aerial photos of the factory and air bases) that production of the J20 was stalled. The manufacturer had planned to build three a month initially but since mid-2017 production turned out to have been zero. There are apparently a dozen in more in various stages of completion. In early 2018 it was already known that there were several potential problems with the J20 production but the main ones had to do with stealth (the delicate materials on the airframe that make radar detection less effective) and engines. The most obvious problem was the engines. The WS-10s currently installed are a stopgap and not efficient enough to support supercruise (go supersonic without using the afterburner). China has had persistent problems developing high-performance jet engines. China has been developing the more powerful (and supercruise ready) WS-15 engine since the 1990s for a larger aircraft like the J20 but has not been able to get the engine to work reliably enough for .a service (rather than a prototype) aircraft. Officials also confirmed rumors that a WS-15 exploded during a 2015 static (on the ground) test. That failure had been a secret but when an engine this big fails by blowing up the incident is difficult to hide. It turned out that the WS-15 problems were less difficult to fix than those encountered with other components and the skilled labor shortage.

Via strategy page. The important thing isn't strategypage, since we know it's a rather biased and low-reliability source, but rather that it claims to be sourcing Chinese state television. Anyone have a direct source on this?

 

[vincent]

Via strategy page. The important thing isn't strategypage, since we know it's a rather biased and low-reliability source, but rather that it claims to be sourcing Chinese state television. Anyone have a direct source on this?

Obviously strategy page talking out of their asses. Just take a look at the Y-20 page and see how many Y-20s, Y-9s and H-6k are being produced

 

[sferrin]

Me too ....

Any chance they'd ever fly one at Paris or Farnborough? (Or even a J-10?)

 

[Inst]

The points I like are:

The J-20 costs around 110 million, or 750 million RMB. This is a nice definite number, and puts it between the F-35 and F-22 in cost. Total development costs are quite low at about 44 million per production unit if we assume a tranche of 100, which should be quite low.

Second, confirmation of the WS-15 explosion. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, because SP is sourcing it to 2015, meaning that much time has passed and flight testing of WS-15 prototypes may already begin. Moreover, strategypage is implying that the WS-15 has been less problematic than others have expected (i.e, it's less difficult to fix).

The point is, when you look at a fanboy page, the most reliable facts are when they discuss the weaknesses of their fetish object. When you look at a basher page, the most reliable facts are when they discuss the strengths of their hate object.

But of course, this is ultimately Strategypage. It's just a site that deals with rumors, often manufactured. The important thing is getting a hold of the TV show that reported these "facts".

Obviously, the J-20 is not for export; the Pakistanis are going to pick up the J-31, first, second, the Pakistanis can barely afford J-10s, so why would they be able to / want to pick up a fighter that's twice the cost of a J-10B? Strategypage is obviously wrong in this regard, and from our observations, the cited wing area of the J-20 by strategypage is absurd by our own measurements (75 m^2 blended body, strategypage claims around 63 m^2).

 

[sferrin]

Obviously strategy page talking out of their asses. Just take a look at the Y-20 page and see how many Y-20s, Y-9s and H-6k are being produced

To be fair, those are much simpler aircraft.

 

[Deino]

Any chance they'd ever fly one at Paris or Farnborough? (Or even a J-10?)

IMO highly unlikely.

 

[Inst]

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FYI, stalled is also a variable meaning. Remember, the J-20 is not a finalized product, it needs the WS-15 engine to perform as expected, and as you bash me on, it has development potential into a stealthier fighter by dropping the tailfins and perhaps enlarging the canards. Producing the J-20 early, before the WS-15 is ready, is just going to put up a lot of prototype/LRIP airframes that need to be expensively upgraded once the WS-15 comes out. And a production rate of 24/year is stalled in comparison to the F-35, which is reaching 100/year production rates, but is not bad for China's needs.

 

[latenlazy]

Do we have primary sources for Strategy Page’s claims?

 

[gelgoog]

The J-20 had several changes from the early prototypes to the production versions. The most obvious are probably the stealth coatings. The engines, or at least the nozzles, also seem to have been fiddled with quite a bit.

It might simply be that, much like the Russians with the Su-57, they are going to use the LRIP fighters to get the kinks out of the design with some actual operational experience, while they wait for the definite engines. I think this is better than producing an expensive hangar queen, which is what has happened to the US with the B-2 and F-22, despite being remarkable aircraft they just spend too much time in maintenance to be really useful. Or like the F-35 where due to 'concurrency' the early versions they produced by the hundreds are severely limited in terms of kinematic and weapons delivery capabilities and cannot even be upgraded to later specs. Only recent versions of the F-35 are fit for combat duty and they still have not hit the design specs!

China does not need huge numbers of these J-20 aircraft because, simply put, the rate at which they are producing it is enough to keep at bay whatever the US and its allies can muster in that part of Asia for the near future. What is it? Two squadrons a year? That seems quite enough. I also think it is pointless to compare it vs F-35 numbers because this is a heavyweight twin-engine fighter airplane. China is sure to produce a stealth J-10 replacement sometime in the future and I think it is highly unlikely the PLAN will select the FC-31. Due to cost reasons a single-engine aircraft is much more likely. Which does not mean the FC-31 will not get adopted as a carrier aircraft by the PLANAF. Of course if the Chinese continue to have native engine reliability issues it might mean the FC-31 might get selected despite its higher production and maintenance costs. There already is native production of the basic engine and there is an upgrade path to improved engine versions.