8 in 4 months is 2 planes per month. Remember, this is still LRIP, the stage of production where they are testing and standardizing the manufacturing process for scale.
J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread V
- Thread starter Deino
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I don't really expect a mass production of J-20 similar to F-35 as it is a high-end, heavy fighter aircraft and thus, expensive plane. And I don't think they are going to introduce the type in large number until the WS-15 is ready. This is the expected engine for this aircraft and they won't take the risk of having an underpowered plane while facing F-22. This is not PLAAF bashing, but I think the PLAAF chiefs of staff are well aware of this issue and are awaiting the definitive version of J-20 to introduce it with a fleet comparable in size to US F-22's fleet.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Even underpowered it will still be a quantum leap in terms of what the PLAAF and potential non-US adversaries are flying, so I really do not see them slowing down production even without WS15s.
5th gens' greatest advantage are their stealth. So if you are engaging enemies in WVR with 5th gens, either you are sneaking up on their 6 for easy kills, or something has gone seriously wrong with your game plan.
F22s and WS15 J20s will certainly be able to more than hold their own against the best legacy fighters in WVR combat, but the main point is they shouldn't have to ever have to do that unless they themselves choose to do so (while enjoying overwhelming advantages and assuming minimal risk).
Also, tactically speaking, J20s shouldn't ever need to go head to head against F22s even in a direct conflict with the US.
That is because in a real shooting war, any US or US allied airbase within F22 range of mainland China will also be well sighing range of Chinese cruise and ballistic missiles. So basing F22s there will be exceptionally risky and dangerous for the US, with a high probability of those precious F22s getting slagged on the ground or returning from missions to find they have no useable runway to land on.
The most likely stealth adversary J20s might face in a real war are F35s, and I guess the PLAAF would feel even without WS15s, the J20 should still more than hold its own against the F35 in WVR.
The point is that by the aircraft spotted - and YES, even therefore unreliable and at best a confirmation on a certain bird - we know the 13th altogether J-20 flew in January, which eqals for the LRIP birds confirmed 1 aircraft per 2 months. So if this is indeed the 15th LRIP aircraft and the other one was indeed no. 5 LRIP, then these would be 8 in two months ... IMO a bit on the high side.
If it is however only the 15th J-20 altogether - and here I agree, why painting a 15 if it does not denote the LRIPO batch ? - it would fit to the so far estimated low production rate ...
Deino
Henri K say 10 delivered... in 2017 so 0.8/month seems reasonnable and he have yet say 40 2017 - 2019 and possible reason why J-10 production down, J-10 32 in 2016, 42 in 2015, 48 in 2014 ( Henri K numbers ) can be a linked a reason.
With this rate of Delivery the first J-20 Rgt is full end 2018, IOC when ?
In more Navy is privilegied for budget we see ... the total buget have increase 7 % but not enough for support an increase of all military branches, Ships are big weapons and expensive, Army for modernisation, new materials have decrease her size and same or about for AF especialy 7 Q-5 Rgts stand down and replaced only in part by new J-16 a proof there.
Strat. Rocket Forces have received several new Brigades.
After for J-16 production in relation with J-15 before 24 J-11B build up to 2014, 24 seems the good number for both types.
I think we need consider also others types and normaly... in general the production have decrease less
For JH-7A seems as J-10 production down some years ago about 24 by year ( up to 2004 - 2012 a Rgt/Year ) since 2012 a unique Rgt in 2016 and no JH-7B ...
Number under reserves ofc
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But as far as I know the original text translated it does not say there will be 10 new birds delivered but altogether the number will reach 10 in 2017.
via:
10, same figure as the F-22 Lot-1 (2001).
I have two challenges to that:
1: how much can we "confirm" that the 13th J-20 altogether flew in January? i.e. how do they know that it is 13th, and how do they know that it is 13 "altogether"?
2: if this new aircraft is 15th LRIP, and if we accept for the sake of discussion that the January aircraft is 13th overall (meaning 5th LRIP), then that is 10 aircraft in six months meaning less than two aircraft per month. I think that is reasonable.
Basically, a position that I am starting to believe is that since the beginning of 2016 we have basically lost any reliable count for how many LRIP J-20s have been built/flown because we do not have consistent photos of CAC's new J-20s (i.e.: either photos which are taken may be released with a delay, and/or that photos of new J-20s may lack their production serial numbers).
IMO then estimated number of J-20s that we have should be considered as a "minimum" rather than a "maximum" in our estimate range, and even then we should keep in mind that those estimates for past aircraft may not be reflective of how many were actually produced.
OTOH, with this latest photo of a J-20 with #15, it allows us to recalibrate our estimates a little bit with something that might reflect a firm LRIP/production number and gauge how many have been built in total over the last year and a half.
If we are able to continue and get a few photos of J-20 with numbers like that in the future, even if they are not sequential (like 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 23, 24) and instead are intermittent (like 17, 21, 24), it would still be a much better way to estimate the number of J-20s than what we have to work with now.
Hopefully they continue with this new numbering system for future new aircraft.
Hyperwarp
Captain
You gotta cut them some slack. It is early days for the J-20. It is a brand new design, the most complicated and most expensive fighter PRC has ever build. Add to the the J-20 is a twin-engined heavy fighter compared to the previous generations CAC has produced. Production rate will increase eventually but initially it is going to be slow.
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