J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread V

[Deino]

I have two challenges to that:

1: how much can we "confirm" that the 13th J-20 altogether flew in January? i.e. how do they know that it is 13th, and how do they know that it is 13 "altogether"?
2: if this new aircraft is 15th LRIP, and if we accept for the sake of discussion that the January aircraft is 13th overall (meaning 5th LRIP), then that is 10 aircraft in six months meaning less than two aircraft per month. I think that is reasonable.


Basically, a position that I am starting to believe is that since the beginning of 2016 we have basically lost any reliable count for how many LRIP J-20s have been built/flown because we do not have consistent photos of CAC's new J-20s (i.e.: either photos which are taken may be released with a delay, and/or that photos of new J-20s may lack their production serial numbers).

IMO then estimated number of J-20s that we have should be considered as a "minimum" rather than a "maximum" in our estimate range, and even then we should keep in mind that those estimates for past aircraft may not be reflective of how many were actually produced.


OTOH, with this latest photo of a J-20 with #15, it allows us to recalibrate our estimates a little bit with something that might reflect a firm LRIP/production number and gauge how many have been built in total over the last year and a half.
If we are able to continue and get a few photos of J-20 with numbers like that in the future, even if they are not sequential (like 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 23, 24) and instead are intermittent (like 17, 21, 24), it would still be a much better way to estimate the number of J-20s than what we have to work with now.

Hopefully they continue with this new numbering system for future new aircraft.

Agreed ! ... but the point is as You noted: "we have basically lost any reliable count for how many LRIP J-20s have been built/flown because we do not have consistent photos of CAC's new J-20s" and as such these rare spotter photos are for me one of the few straws in the ocean and even if You are correct they may not (most likely !) lead to the correct result, they are the only ones anyway.

 

[Blitzo]

Agreed ! ... but the point is as You noted: "we have basically lost any reliable count for how many LRIP J-20s have been built/flown because we do not have consistent photos of CAC's new J-20s" and as such these rare spotter photos are for me one of the few straws in the ocean and even if You are correct they may not (most likely !) lead to the correct result, they are the only ones anyway.

Yes... my suggestion/advice because of that, is that I think we should basically accept that all of our previous estimates of the number of J-20 LRIP birds may all be slightly invalid, and that if new photos emerge suggesting the production number is larger than what we once thought, that it should not engender too much skepticism.

The converse is of course also true, but given how few photos we get out, I think the tendency will be for us to underestimate how many J-20s have been produced rather than overestimate.

 

[Deino]

Yes... my suggestion/advice because of that, is that I think we should basically accept that all of our previous estimates of the number of J-20 LRIP birds may all be slightly invalid, and that if new photos emerge suggesting the production number is larger than what we once thought, that it should not engender too much skepticism.

The converse is of course also true, but given how few photos we get out, I think the tendency will be for us to underestimate how many J-20s have been produced rather than overestimate.

To admit it makes not only sense but fits even better to other reports we know.
I remember from October last year that very fine close-up-iamge showing a J-20 with it's - alleged - cn. under the canopy. Already then we discussed if this is not already the 11. LRIP bird and soon thereafter I remember images from CAC showing clearly two grey painted and at least 2 (maybe even up to 3 or 4) yellow unpainted birds. So reports about the 13th in January are not impossible ... and this one being the 15th then would also fit nicely.

 

[huitong]

The claim that this is the 15th LRIP J-20 is false, according to the photographer (TNT).

 

[Iron Man]

1 plane for every 2 months. That's awefully slow. They need to catch up to F35 production quick

The maximum build rate for the F-22 was 36 planes/year, or 3/month, so this is not far off even though the J-20 is only in LRIP. Apparently by 2020 the F-35 is expected to be produced at ~200/year (it's currently at ~50/year), but a significant portion of these will go to allies, and J-20 production will not need to match F-35 production 1 for 1 regardless for obvious geographical and possibly performance/tactical reasons.

 

[PiSigma]

The maximum build rate for the F-22 was 36 planes/year, or 3/month, so this is not far off even though the J-20 is only in LRIP. Apparently by 2020 the F-35 is expected to be produced at ~200/year (it's currently at ~50/year), but a significant portion of these will go to allies, and J-20 production will not need to match F-35 production 1 for 1 regardless for obvious geographical and possibly performance/tactical reasons.

I don't think f35 production will ever reach 200/year. Not a matter of production capability but of money. Not all the allies will buy the full amount they wished for, or at least not right away.

 

[davidau]

yellow bird, up, up and away...J 20 # 15...just rolled out of production line...J 20 is going to be mass produced..

once equipped with China engine emei WS-15, the bird can cruise in supersonic speed without use of the afterburner..

when attached with 4 auxiliary fuel tanks it can reach fighting half radius of 3 000 km and can cover US military base Guam and second island chain..it is more cost-effective than DF 26 missiles..

..it is estimated that one flying hour of J 20 costs 300 000 yuan (appx US $ 50 000), to Guam is 4-5 hours plus munitions, support & other costs would not exceed US $ 1.7 million.. whilst a battery of DF 26 missiles would cost hundreds of millions of yuan ie tens of millions of US dollars..

..the finishing product, you beauty...what a lovely bird.. stealthy and all...

 

[RickHunter]

 

[Deino]

View attachment 39456

Any info on where and when this was taken ?

 

[Deino]

yellow bird, up, up and away...J 20 # 15...just rolled out of production line...J 20 is going to be mass produced..

once equipped with China engine emei WS-15, the bird can cruise in supersonic speed without use of the afterburner..

when attached with 4 auxiliary fuel tanks it can reach fighting half radius of 3 000 km and can cover US military base Guam and second island chain..it is more cost-effective than DF 26 missiles..

..it is estimated that one flying hour of J 20 costs 300 000 yuan (appx US $ 50 000), to Guam is 4-5 hours plus munitions, support & other costs would not exceed US $ 1.7 million.. whilst a battery of DF 26 missiles would cost hundreds of millions of yuan ie tens of millions of US dollars..

..the finishing product, you beauty...what a lovely bird.. stealthy and all...

Maybe You've missed the recent discussion again just few posts above !?? ... seems to be not the 15th LRIP bird as stated by the photographer himself.

... and all Your other cost-calculations, hyping performances I would be more careful, even with Your last sentence I fully agree.