J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread V

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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
From Henri K blog. so they should have close to 1 regiment at the end of 2017

According to some sources, Chengdu is committed to delivering 10+ J-20 fighters in 2017. This is consistent with their capabilities.

DB4UVhTXcAApr_4.jpg
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
From Henri K blog. so they should have close to 1 regiment at the end of 2017

According to some sources, Chengdu is committed to delivering 10+ J-20 fighters in 2017. This is consistent with their capabilities.

DB4UVhTXcAApr_4.jpg

Thank you Hendrik, that is the answer I was looking for/expecting, I do imagine they have upgraded their production facilities in reference to Master Delfts observation.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
From Henri K blog. so they should have close to 1 regiment at the end of 2017

According to some sources, Chengdu is committed to delivering 10+ J-20 fighters in 2017. This is consistent with their capabilities.

DB4UVhTXcAApr_4.jpg

I don't know,,,, looks to me like maybe the "ALIENS" have choosen to share a little "Roswell" with the Chinese?? LOOKS LIKE IT! Hummm???
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
I don't know what is Henri K trying to say in this article He used very arcane logic here. I guess he try to figure out the production rate of J 20

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Since its introduction in series production, the news on the J-20 is beginning to become scarce. Chengdu city spotters, who usually remain very active around Factory 132 (CAC) where Chinese fighter jets are produced, seem to have lost interest in the plane.

Perhaps the security measures have been tightened - for example, the construction of a wall that now surrounds the production site, and the demolition of derelict buildings that have been served as an observation post by enthusiasts - or Then simply that the fashion effect is now past.

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The building usually used by spotters to photograph the site is being demolished.

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New wall under construction to protect the production site

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The enthusiasts, who always find a way to circumvent the measures (Photos: yuan18)

However, some local sources said yesterday that "the Factory has committed to deliver more than ten aircraft (D-20) in 2017," before it is rectified in "the total delivery quantity Exceeds ten copies ".

At first glance, these two versions may seem identical, but knowing that at least seven J-20 series aircraft were manufactured until February this year, 5 of which already made their first flight and of which two were delivered to the Chinese air force, interpretation can give totally different figures.

If 10 aircraft will be delivered by the end of the year, and taking into account that it takes about three to six months to complete the flight tests at the factory before delivery, this amounts to saying that in addition to the two aircraft J-20 aircraft already delivered and five that have gone out of the assembly line earlier, CAC is capable of producing at least five aircraft in the first half of 2017, a production rate of 10 aircraft per year from the second year of production in series.

If, on the other hand, ten units have been delivered from the beginning, ie from 2016, then the rate will fall to six per year (three in the first half of 2017).

So which of the two is most likely today?

Based on Chengdu's previous program of production, namely the J-10 single-jet fighter family , it can be seen that in 2003, the first year of series production, four Copies were delivered to the Chinese Air Force.

The figure doubled in 2004 to eight deliveries, twenty in 2005, and stabilized around thirty in the following years until the arrival of the J-10B variant in 2013.

Following the same logic and knowing that the first two J-20s of the series, registered 78271 and 78272 respectively, were produced in 2015, followed by the other five between 2016 and early 2017, it seems more reasonable to bet On the second scenario, that is to say that ten standard 10-20 J-20s delivered from the beginning by the end of 2017. In this case, the current annual production rate should be between six and eight aircraft, half that of our initial estimate (see The file "
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").

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78271, the first J-20 series that was delivered to the Chinese Air Force (Photo: 中保镖 保镖)

While waiting for new elements to establish a better statistic, two institutional information around the J-20 will fill a little the current low period.

The first concerns the cockpit of the aircraft, and more precisely the full-width MFD touchscreen. A local television station broadcast an interview with a subsidiary of the AVIC group, the parent company of Factory 132 Chengdu, in which it is reported that the J-20 instrument panel is manufactured by AVIC Changfeng, which produces the same type All-in-one cockpit for the J-16 , a new heavy-fighter-bomber that will ultimately replace the Su-30MKK and Su-30MK2 in the Air Force and the Chinese Navy.

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The touch screen one piece of the J-16 bomber fighter.


And the news is (indirectly) confirmed by the visit of an official delegation from the city of Suzhou to AVIC Changfeng, during which the deputy mayor was given a J-20 model.

The other information concerns the maintenance of J-20. According to
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, a newspaper published by the AVIC group, it is learned that the man-machine interface of the Portable Maintenance Assistant (PMA ) for systems of " The 4th generation aircraft "has been completely redesigned and optimized, so that it is more user-friendly for control and maintenance technicians.

The term "4th generation aircraft" is usually used for the J-20, as the generation classification of combat aircraft is different from that of the United States and Russian.

All these elements show that the J-20 program is still only at the beginning of its phase of ramp-up and the maturation of industrial processes, and we will not fail to return to these topics in the near future.

To be continued.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
I don't know what is Henri K trying to say in this article He used very arcane logic here. I guess he try to figure out the production rate of J 20

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Since its introduction in series production, the news on the J-20 is beginning to become scarce. Chengdu city spotters, who usually remain very active around Factory 132 (CAC) where Chinese fighter jets are produced, seem to have lost interest in the plane.

Perhaps the security measures have been tightened - for example, the construction of a wall that now surrounds the production site, and the demolition of derelict buildings that have been served as an observation post by enthusiasts - or Then simply that the fashion effect is now past.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The building usually used by spotters to photograph the site is being demolished.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

New wall under construction to protect the production site

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The enthusiasts, who always find a way to circumvent the measures (Photos: yuan18)

However, some local sources said yesterday that "the Factory has committed to deliver more than ten aircraft (D-20) in 2017," before it is rectified in "the total delivery quantity Exceeds ten copies ".

At first glance, these two versions may seem identical, but knowing that at least seven J-20 series aircraft were manufactured until February this year, 5 of which already made their first flight and of which two were delivered to the Chinese air force, interpretation can give totally different figures.

If 10 aircraft will be delivered by the end of the year, and taking into account that it takes about three to six months to complete the flight tests at the factory before delivery, this amounts to saying that in addition to the two aircraft J-20 aircraft already delivered and five that have gone out of the assembly line earlier, CAC is capable of producing at least five aircraft in the first half of 2017, a production rate of 10 aircraft per year from the second year of production in series.

If, on the other hand, ten units have been delivered from the beginning, ie from 2016, then the rate will fall to six per year (three in the first half of 2017).

So which of the two is most likely today?

Based on Chengdu's previous program of production, namely the J-10 single-jet fighter family , it can be seen that in 2003, the first year of series production, four Copies were delivered to the Chinese Air Force.

The figure doubled in 2004 to eight deliveries, twenty in 2005, and stabilized around thirty in the following years until the arrival of the J-10B variant in 2013.

Following the same logic and knowing that the first two J-20s of the series, registered 78271 and 78272 respectively, were produced in 2015, followed by the other five between 2016 and early 2017, it seems more reasonable to bet On the second scenario, that is to say that ten standard 10-20 J-20s delivered from the beginning by the end of 2017. In this case, the current annual production rate should be between six and eight aircraft, half that of our initial estimate (see The file "
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
").

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

78271, the first J-20 series that was delivered to the Chinese Air Force (Photo: 中保镖 保镖)

While waiting for new elements to establish a better statistic, two institutional information around the J-20 will fill a little the current low period.

The first concerns the cockpit of the aircraft, and more precisely the full-width MFD touchscreen. A local television station broadcast an interview with a subsidiary of the AVIC group, the parent company of Factory 132 Chengdu, in which it is reported that the J-20 instrument panel is manufactured by AVIC Changfeng, which produces the same type All-in-one cockpit for the J-16 , a new heavy-fighter-bomber that will ultimately replace the Su-30MKK and Su-30MK2 in the Air Force and the Chinese Navy.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The touch screen one piece of the J-16 bomber fighter.


And the news is (indirectly) confirmed by the visit of an official delegation from the city of Suzhou to AVIC Changfeng, during which the deputy mayor was given a J-20 model.

The other information concerns the maintenance of J-20. According to
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, a newspaper published by the AVIC group, it is learned that the man-machine interface of the Portable Maintenance Assistant (PMA ) for systems of " The 4th generation aircraft "has been completely redesigned and optimized, so that it is more user-friendly for control and maintenance technicians.

The term "4th generation aircraft" is usually used for the J-20, as the generation classification of combat aircraft is different from that of the United States and Russian.

All these elements show that the J-20 program is still only at the beginning of its phase of ramp-up and the maturation of industrial processes, and we will not fail to return to these topics in the near future.

To be continued.

Very informative post Hendrik, and I'm giving you the Sino Defense "post of the month" award for critical thinking and just outright honesty,,,, like you I am kind of expecting a "production ramp up", and 10 aircraft a year seems ambitious but, should be "do-able". I'm wondering why we are not seeing more initial flight ops of at least the next batch of 4 J-20's, or just some evidence, rumour, that it has been occurring??
 
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