J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread V

[Blackstone]

I do doubt his ability to obtain facts on the J-20 though... Did the USAF hack into China's DoD network, something the US government denies?

The American public is told repeatedly we have the best intelligence services in the world. If that's mostly true, then I have no problem believing General Goldfein isn't just flapping his gums.

 

[Air Force Brat]

Hillary Clinton is also a US government official. We all know how much she lies...

We all know the expression that politicians have two faces. All politicians lie, no matter what political system and nationality.

Every government has reasons to tell lies. Officials in a democratic government is less likely to lie about domestic matters because there are many folds of checks and balances to ensure that information can always get out.

On international matters, virtually all governments are the same because there is no checks and balances on the international stage. No foreign personnel can vote for American politicians. No matter how open and free any nation can be within the country, democracy stops at the border. As such, officials from every government have the same tendency to lie about another country as the next.

 

[vesicles]

What a curious thing to say, and you base your claims on what evidence?

You claim that a USAF general has detailed knowledge of a top secret weapon system from a highly secretive country. I believe that you should be the one responsible for showing the evidence.

The American public is told repeatedly we have the best intelligence services in the world. If that's mostly true, then I have no problem believing General Goldfein isn't just flapping his gums.

Isn't that handwringing?

And those of us living in the US have been fed with so much message lately on how much our own government is lying to us... It's confusing that now you believe every single word...

 

[Blitzo]

What a curious thing to say, and you base your claims on what evidence?

On the contrary, on this case I think the more doubtful claim would be to suggest that the General had all the access to all the facts about J-20 to make any sort of comparison with any fighter in his own Air Force.

An equivalently unlikely notion would be to suggest the Chinese Air Force knows everything about F-22 and F-35 to be able to make an accurate and factual assessment on all of their capabilities.

That sort of intelligence is jealously guarded by both sides, and the default stance should be that no military force has the full spectrum of knowledge of either side's capabilities... and in the J-20's case it is only in the late stages of its development so the fact that the General is willing to venture out such a statement is premature given the full operational range of J-20's capabilities wouldn't even have yet been determined by its native air force!

Of course you're entitled to your opinions, but I find General Goldfein believable with regards to the J-20 being no match for the F-35.

Is that because that the General had said those words, or is it because you believed that was the case before he said it, or both?
Of course, I find all three of those options to be logically flawed.

I consider the General's statement to be empty posturing from a position of either accidental or deliberate ignorance.
I consider the actual capability of J-20 compared to F-35, F-22 or PAK FA or whatever to be essentially unknown at this point because we have insufficient information.

 

[manqiangrexue]

What a curious thing to say, and you base your claims on what evidence?


Of course you're entitled to your opinions, but I find General Goldfein believable with regards to the J-20 being no match for the F-35.

What evidence do we have that he doesn't know the J-20's abilities? What evidence did he give for us to assume he knows?? He tells you he has the best intelligence in the world? LOL Where's the evidence for that? Where's the comparison country-to-country? No evidence for either except that you assume both to the true cus you assumed the other is true? That's called circular logic, ie. God exists because the bible says so and the bible is true cus god wrote it. LOL Spiderman is real because it's written in Marvel Comics, and Marvel Comics is non-fiction because it details the life and achievements of Spiderman. LOL

 

[Blackstone]

I would argue that the circumstances have changed dramatically since then in terms of the overall balance of airpower and overall military power that the US is used to vs that time.
Not only is the US much more used to having a much greater technological superiority to almost everyone else due to experiences in the recent past, but their overall military doctrine now is so much more dependent on various synonyms of the phrase, "full spectrum dominance".

So yes, I do consider his statements quite dismissible.

You might have convinced me before the global financial crash, but since then the world has changed. Everyone acknowledge that. Everyone.

Not many years ago, PLA was looked down upon as the world's largest active military museum, but that too has changed, and the drum beat is now 180 degrees opposite. Given that, it's not hard to believe US policy makers and strategy setters would take Zhongnanhai and the PLA very seriously indeed.

So yes, I consider General Goldfein's statement believable.

 

[Blitzo]

You might have convinced me before the global financial crash, but since then the world has changed. Everyone acknowledge that. Bar none.

Not many years ago, PLA was looked down upon as the world's largest active military museum, but that too has changed, and the drum beat is now 180 degrees opposite. Given that, it's not hard to believe US policy makers and strategy setters would take Zhongnanhai and the PLA very seriously indeed.

So yes, I consider General Goldfein's statement believable.

I think the way that we Chinese military watchers have been able to perceive the advances in Chinese military development and the overall state of the Chinese economy and industry, and technology, is quite different to how the majority of the old hands in Washington and Pentagon perceive China.

Reading many of the recent US govt contracted reports on China's defence and military capabilities, many of them read like something from early 2010 rather than 2016.



That isn't to say the US military isn't taking China seriously, but I don't think they're taking China seriously for the right reason.

 

[Blackstone]

On the contrary, on this case I think the more doubtful claim would be to suggest that the General had all the access to all the facts about J-20 to make any sort of comparison with any fighter in his own Air Force.

An equivalently unlikely notion would be to suggest the Chinese Air Force knows everything about F-22 and F-35 to be able to make an accurate and factual assessment on all of their capabilities.

That sort of intelligence is jealously guarded by both sides, and the default stance should be that no military force has the full spectrum of knowledge of either side's capabilities... and in the J-20's case it is only in the late stages of its development so the fact that the General is willing to venture out such a statement is premature given the full operational range of J-20's capabilities wouldn't even have yet been determined by its native air force!

Okay, you make sense. So, let's carry on that train of thought and say a high-ranking officer with some knowledge, either operationally or personal expertise, consider the J-20 inferior to the F-35. Can we at agree with that?

Is that because that the General had said those words, or is it because you believed that was the case before he said it, or both?
Of course, I find all three of those options to be logically flawed.

Not sure how to answer your message, but for whatever it's worth, had General Goldfein said the J-20 was superior to the F-35, I'd believe him. I take him as an expert source, with information unavailable to the public. Of course, it's possible he's playing the China threat for bigger budgets, but be that as it may, I'd still want an improved F-35/F-22/F-XX that is clearly better than the J-20.

I consider the General's statement to be empty posturing from a position of either accidental or deliberate ignorance.
I consider the actual capability of J-20 compared to F-35, F-22 or PAK FA or whatever to be essentially unknown at this point because we have insufficient information.

That's your guess, based on confidential sources. So, you will forgive me if I don't take it seriously.

 

[Blackstone]

I think the way that we Chinese military watchers have been able to perceive the advances in Chinese military development and the overall state of the Chinese economy and industry, and technology, is quite different to how the majority of the old hands in Washington and Pentagon perceive China.

Reading many of the recent US govt contracted reports on China's defence and military capabilities, many of them read like something from early 2010 rather than 2016.

I can agree with this, because there are plenty of evidence to support what you say.

That isn't to say the US military isn't taking China seriously, but I don't think they're taking China seriously for the right reason.

That's an opinion, and you're entitled to them.

 

[Blitzo]

Okay, you make sense. So, let's carry on that train of thought and say a high-ranking officer with some knowledge, either operationally or personal expertise, consider the J-20 inferior to the F-35. Can we at agree with that?

That would depend on we expect those individuals of authority to have access to the relevant information on the two aircraft to make any sort of a comparative statement of any substance.

And in this case, I consider the General to almost definitely lack the access to facts as to J-20's capabilities in the same degree that he knows about F-35.


Who knows, maybe J-20 is inferior to F-35. But neither we nor him should have the information available to us to be able to tell. His position as Chief of Staff of the US Air Force gives him expertise in many domains of his trade, and especially much expertise for his own Air Force. But it does not mean his judgement of under development aircraft of foreign adversarial air forces should be taken seriously.

Not sure how to answer your message, but for whatever it's worth, had General Goldfein said the J-20 was superior to the F-35, I'd believe him. I take him as an expert source, with information unavailable to the public. Of course, it's possible he's playing the China threat for bigger budgets, but be that as it may, I'd still want an improved F-35/F-22/F-XX that is clearly better than the J-20.

I wouldn't trust any of these high ranking officers further than I can throw them when it comes to comparative fighter aircraft especially for fighters that haven't even been deployed.

That's your guess, based on confidential sources. So, you will forgive me if I don't take it seriously.

I'm not guessing based on "confidential sources". I'm not pulling out facts, rather I'm saying that we have an absence of facts and are unable to make a judgement from that.