It doesn't look like a distorted "2016", especially that supposedly optical distortions from the heat of the J-10 nozzle, should be wavy and may extend further out to "20". Instead, it looks like the second "0" is blocked by a verticle object, i.e. the J-20 there is a "200x", not a "201x".
I'm quite confident the J-20 we are talking about is 2016 or at least it is a 201X.
We can see that its canopy has the reinforcing frame, and we can also see the chin mounted EOIRST. Those are both things only present on the 201X prototypes.
And the "20" of "2016" is also distorted, however it is distorted
less than the "1" of "2016" partly because it is "further" from the hot exhaust of the J-10's engine (whereas the "1" and the "6" are "closer" to the source of the exhaust and thus distortion is more significant from the point of view of the camera), but also partly because the "2" and "0" are both much more distinct and visible than the "1" and the "6".
edit: this is a quick and dirty comparison of the nose of 2016 in the picture and a different picture of 2016 from a similar angle, with the "6" cut off. There is also a bit of distortion in the different picture of 2016 due to resizing -- one can quite easily see how a bit of extra distortion from a hot exhaust of a jet engine obscuring the camera's sight line could potentially make the "1" appear like the half of a "0".
More importantly, this comparison also shows the key similarities between the 2016/201X in the picture, which are not present on the 200X prototypes. (the slight difference in paint darkness is explained due to different lighting between when the two pictures were shot -- the key point is that key structural markers between the two pictures are identical in position and geometry)
compare that with the nose of 2001 and 2002 -- not only does 2001 and 2002 lack the canopy reinforcement frame, as well as the chin EOIRST (both of which are very clear), but the position of their electro-optic aperture on the side of the nose are also different as well!
Therefore, it is my position that it is indisputable that the picture we are talking about is a 201X prototype, and based on the rest of the photographer's photos, it is most likely 2016. Any doubts as to the J-20's status seems to only be due to the "1" and the "6" looking a bit indistinct due to the distortion of the engine exhaust, but such distortion could quite reasonably alter the shape of the numbers to such a degree, especially seeing as the "6" is partially obscured by the J-10's nozzle and the "1" is also closer to the engine exhaust's heat compared to the "2" and the "0".