Is this Your estimation or a list found somewhere else ?? As far as I know we have the prototypes numbered 551, 552, 553, 554, 555, 556 ... and most likely these are complemented by at least 1-2 static test airframes. Anyway I don't think that these 6 aircraft were all manufactured in 2011/12 and thereafter so many pre-serials and serials were build. IMO the number is much lower and serial started only in earnest in 2013.
What do the others think ???
I agree Deino.
We actually know of 551, 552, 553, 554, 555 and 556 prototypes because we have seen all of them. That's six aircraft.
We also know of at least one two-seat J-15 derivitive we have seen.
I have to believe at least three static and other test air frames...so that would be a total of ten prototypes we can be pretty sure of, seven of them absolutely sure of because we have seen them all.
Now, we have also seen aircraft numbered in a production configuration of 100, 101, 102, 103, and 104. But that is all I have seen to date. That's another five.
We know of these. See
Could there be more? Yes, of course there could.
But if there are many more, particularly production aircraft with their numbers assigned, then we would surely see them as as they themselves go through their initial qualifications, and then as new pilots are trained on them. But we haven't.
So, right now, we know of twelve flying aircraft for sure, and perhaps a good idea that up to three other test aircraft. That's 15 that I am willing to be almost certain of. The rest are all conjecture. But, again, if they are producing production aircraft now in numbers...they would be seen. I am waiting to see the others.
When we see 6-8 production aircraft operating off of the Liaoning...or even at the shore-based training center...we will know for sure.
I hope to see at least four of the new J-15s operating off of the Liaoning next year. More would be nice.