China's officials didn't help them understand J-10 much. When asked if J-20 (or J-XX at the time) was an answer to the Raptor, they said that it only aimed to get China a Typhoon/Rafale-like aircraft. So of course people thought J-10 was early F-16 level if that.
Most people (many within SFD included) thought the J-10 was approximately F-16 level even up to the mid 2010s. I honestly don't think armchair people ever thought of the J-10 as anything that was in the Rafale and Typhoon league until J-10CE was exported to Pakistan where it participated in exercises with Typhoon and Rafale. Then of course having J-10C shoot down multiple Rafales in May 2025.
Prior to that we only knew the J-10A was more than a match BVR and WVR against the J-11A which was confirmed with exercises within the PLAAF itself and also with Thai airforce where J-11A lost to Gripen C in BVR but won in WVR and J-10A or J-10B defeated Gripen C in both WVR and BVR. None of this suggested it was better than F-16 and in the league of Rafale and Typhoon.
Then J-10C became mainstay lightweight fighter in PLAAF, exceeding J-10 and J-10A combined numbers. At this point in the late 2010s we had plenty of PLAAF exercises and exercises with the Russians where official hints on J-10C performance was that it exceeded J-11B and Russian modernised Flankers bar the Su-35. In all honesty, J-10C would likely wipe the floor against Su-35 even with R-37M. Detection range against a relatively low RCS J-10C is no easy task. More PLAAF Golden Helmet exercises established plenty of J-10C winners in a pool populated by better fighters like J-16.
So this whole idea of the J-10C being so capable is actually relatively recent consensus, even on SDF and circles that understand Chinese capabilities. Yes, China downplays its capability much more often than admit to it, mostly in fear of triggering too much worry in Washington and triggering arms race or heavier US investment into its MIC. Keeping them complacent is much better for China. The J-20 was officially claimed to be merely Typhoon and Rafale level just so China can avoid the wrong attention but we can confirm even the J-10C is better than the most modern Typhoon and Rafale by virtue of the electronic equipment they carry (or missing in Typhoon's case). This may not have been the case with the J-10 and J-10A back in the 2000s era where it probably was block 50 F-16 level but CAC kept improving the J-10 while the Europeans sat still.
Nope, I like Chinese stuff too, but you’re clearly projecting. What you described never happened. No one was distraught, especially not people who aren’t armchair analysts like us and actually work on fighter jets.
I believed the stories before the CCTV report, ever since people at the PDF with connections first disclosed them, but we still don’t know the ROE. Additionally, none of these reports inherently doom the Typhoon anyway. It’s still got the best non-Flanker/Eagle 4th generation airframe around, and it’ll be able to rival J-16/F-15EX in BVR once ECRS Mk.2 becomes operational. And air warfare is never about 1:1 aircraft performance, but about overall system performance.
In fact, this happened because the Eurofighter partner nations never wanted to pay for further development (CFTs, ESM/ECM, new radar, etc.) unless they absolutely had to.
Besting the most modernised Typhoon in multiple exercises and killing the Rafale in combat shows the J-10C may be one of the best 4.5 gen fighters on the planet. Yes, it's weapons, operator, tactics, network etc dependent but that goes both ways and the frequency of this confirmation, with none showing the opposite, proves this to be the case under most circumstances. The F-15EX, J-16 are another league and while the Su-35 and Typhoon may be more kinematically blessed, they simply are not in the same technology level as F-15EX and the latest J-16.
It doesn't matter quite as much about having the best airframe (Typhoon) which honestly I think is every bit as good as if not better than the Flanker and Eagle airframes. The Mig-29, as legendary an airframe and design it is, has been reduced to a speed bump in modern air combat when facing against even 4.5 gens.
While the Typhoon is promising as a 4.5 gen, it's simply too expensive to produce and upgrade. This ensures it will continue suffering from lack of investment in a world where 5th generation is proliferating at a rate several times that of the Typhoon + Rafale production rate and China is working on
completing two manned 6th gen fighters simultaneously. Not to mention future emphasis on CCAs and heavy weight unmanned fighters like the many UADFs currently being test flown at Malan. There is no more sense in investing that much in Typhoon when its gap is already great. F-15, J-16, J-10, Rafale investments make more sense as they have continuous export orders and/or been kept up to date so that every new iteration isn't an enormous and expensive leap as is required for the Typhoon to step up to its full potential.
The French had enormous foresight or happily lucked out when they decided to pull out from the Eurofighter Consortium and forge their own 4.5 gen fighter. Rafale is proving to be a much more successful export project than the Typhoon and will be the best European contender until European 5th gens appear (they're referring to them as 5.5 gens but whatever). Gripen and Typhoon roadways are limited not because of their airframes but the bureaucracy embedded. Gripen has its own niche though.
