Please … do a bit of research and use common sense. Even more, Bulgarian-BS.com is an even less credible site than Minnie Chan and the SCMP
J-10 Thread IV
- Thread starter Jeff Head
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Please … do a bit of research and use common sense. Even more, Bulgarian-BS.com is an even less credible site than Minnie Chan and the SCMP
They have AESA upgrades for F-16 and TFX coming online next decade. If they want to complicate logistics and invite more sanctions then be my guest.
The capability gap that will exist between now and when the MMU becomes available is going to be filled with UCAVs as much as possible. They cannot engage in air to air or interception missions by themselves yet but the plan is to use them as deep strike and missile truck platforms.
The problem is that Turkey is surrounded by a dozen potential conflict zones and it also has a small neighbour that is arming itself to the teeth for an (imaginary) quick preemptive strike against Turkey.
There were serious negotiations with the UK regarding a procurement of +/- 24-48 Eurofighters and some second hand C-130Js and although that plan and the additional F-16V procurement were running independent from each other; (most likely) they wont materialise anymore due to the destruction of infrastructure caused by the earthquake.
There's another source now on Turkey's interest on J-10C:
The article quotes a member of the Turkish Presidency’s Security and Foreign Policies Council, Cagri Erhan as saying:
“Now we have other options like the Chinese jet, which was sold to Pakistan, Russian jets and also Eurofighter jet."
I'm of the opinion that even if the quote is true its much more likely to be a negotiation tactics to pressure the Americans rather than a serious thing.
The article quotes a member of the Turkish Presidency’s Security and Foreign Policies Council, Cagri Erhan as saying:
“Now we have other options like the Chinese jet, which was sold to Pakistan, Russian jets and also Eurofighter jet."
I'm of the opinion that even if the quote is true its much more likely to be a negotiation tactics to pressure the Americans rather than a serious thing.
UCAVs as of 2020s (i.e., we're still talking near, but future) can complement and/or do parallel tasks to manned a/c.
They don't and can't fill any temporary capability gaps, only permanent ones (i.e. their own niches - some of which actually replace/complement manned a/c).
p.s. they actually can do intercepts. One of the most straightforward missions for automatization.
What I meant was they can technically do it but it isn't preferred yet due to doctrinal and ethical reasons. Also Baykar's Kızılelma won't be able to get in air to air engagements up until like 2025-26 or so and TAI's Anka-3 is designed as a flying wing deep striker.
I already mentioned that they can't fill the gap of a manned air superiority fighter but they are going to be used as support assets for other aircraft, i.e as a forward sensor or as a missile truck. In land attack scenarios their main role is going to be taking over bombings of terrorist camps in Iraq and Syria from the F-16s.
Well, the J-10C is available for export so there are no reasons it couldn't be bought if needed. But the problem is Americans tend to get butthurt when one of their allies use their sovereign right to buy non-allied jets. To sum up I think, the Tur AF will face obsolescence in the coming decade.
1- Any fighter or modernization kit from the USA is a low possibility. So no F-35, or even F-16V kits.
2- MMU is promising but its relevance is a decade away. Even more if Americans decide to embargo the engines.
3- Rafale is impossible because of our relations with France
4- Gripen is mostly an American aircraft, Turkish-Swedish relations are bad and the aircraft is too light for what Turkey does.
5- Russian aircraft is a total no-go for both technical reasons (maintenance nightmare plus almost obsolete sensors and weapons) and political reasons.
These leave the J-10C, JF-17 and Eurofighter. I think these are unlikely too.
1- J-10C is politically a bit hot too. Also buying weapons from China would come with a lot of unknowns to Turkey.
2- JF-17 is less politically hot because of Pakistani involvement but the same unknowns regarding China exist here too.
3- Eurofighter is the best choice but I don't know if it will go forward. It is expensive and first deliveries would be years away.
Might be smoke and mirrors but J-10C procurement could force the Americans to do something. Use it as a leverage probably to score some F16V kits. With AWACS, S-400 and F16V, Turkey should do fine in the region.
It isn't exactly doctrinal(ethically drones are in fact preferred - losing pilots over enemy ground always was less than ideal, especially when the opponent doesn't exactly play by international humanitarian law playbook).
The problems always were (1)complex independence/decision making(or lack of thereof for complex missions), (2)technical level to make it work for sure.
For example, it was normal for US, Soviet(and Swedish) interceptors to do their intercepts almost fully automatically(SAGE environment), pilot was there basically as a landing driver/insurance if complex electronics will fail; any SAM is a single use, unmanned interceptor - just one which suicides against the target instead of releasing some sort of secondary payload. Thus, strictly speaking, even fully unmanned fighters were considered as early as late 1950s (i.e. arming Bomarc with a2a missiles) - just considered not worth it(couldn't land it properly back then anyways).
The same will be true for Kızılelma - it is perfectly capable of executing intercept/combat search/strike under external command/order.
I.e. everything, which is perfectly doable under simple algorithms w/o much unnecessary independence (and subsystem/operational independence is already achieved by modern UAVs/UCAVs).
Basically, imagine any strike or recon mission, which can be done by modern cruise/sam missiles, and replace suicide with normal engagement&RTB. Then add the ability to call/control/recall such missions mid-flight, and stream back the data in real-time.
This one, for example, is actually much harder to achieve - both are loyal wingman roles, requiring significant cooperation and real-time interflow of information with fighters in the air; both these missions are spatially-dispersed aircraft concept.
This, at least for now, is well beyond Kızılelma and all the similar types from other producers(XQ-58, for example). On the other hand - precisely because we drop out those complex requirements, we can talk about deploying them ~tomorrow.
In a way, Kızılelma, Anka-3(or Akinci), etc - all are built on a roughly similar level of AI (low level, frankly speaking). They simply mix different sets of flight characteristics, sensors/mission payloads, and, concurrently - mission profiles. Much like manned aircraft do.
But those 3 are already autonomous enough to not be remote-piloted anymore - only commanded.
Yes and no. They can't do what F-16 does with routinely loitering, looking for targets/calls and solving all the different parts of complex engagement - that needs a pilot.
However, when the pilot already determines the way this target shall be engaged - he indeed can request Kızılelma strike (preferably on something simple/clearly distinguishable - like, ground location/building, ship or plane). Or drone can simply execute simple 'go there bomb that' strikes, without need to bother pilots for a largely mechanical(and/or risky) missions.
But this is not the same as "flying missile truck". Not yet.
p.s. offtop in j-10 topic, but it's still impressive how it's possible to explain the whole system in already flying Turkish drones. GJ Baykar/TAI.
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Well it didn't work the first time with the S-400s so idk about that...
The problem is, during the Cold War whenever Turkey had problems with either the US or Europe, it would balance the situation with improving relations with the other. But the post-CW political thinking in Western capitals is that that they supposedly don't need Turkey by their side anymore and Turkey doesn't have many ways to respond to that.
They want TR to basically be a puppet and pursue only their geopolitical interests.