J-10 Thread IV

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Totoro

Major
VIP Professional
*may* build a production line is different from *will* build a production line.
Also, even "will build a production line" doesn't mean the production line is already churning out planes. It'd take a few years to prep everything, and then few more years to test run the new production line so the quality is assured.

We've not seeing those J-10 for Pakistan being produced slowly, but fairly quickly.

All that makes me believe it's still CAC that's making them. That may or may not be true.
BUT if it IS true, then what does that mean for 7th batch of J10C for PLAAF? How quickly is that being delivered? And what are the odds that the Pakistani batch is causing the PLAAF bound planes to be delivered slower, so PLAAF may in fact receive fewer J10C this year than it did the years before?
 
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stannislas

Junior Member
Registered Member
Totoro said:
*may* build a production line is different from *will* build a production line.
Also, even "will build a production line" doesn't mean the production line is already churning out planes. It'd take a few years to prep everything, and then few more years to test run the new production line so the quality is assured.

We've not seeing those J-10 for Pakistan being produced slowly, but fairly quickly.

All that makes me believe it's still CAC that's making them. That may or may not be true.
BUT if it IS true, then what does that mean for 7th batch of J10C for PLAAF? How quickly is that being delivered? And what are the odds that the Pakistani batch is causing the PLAAF bound planes to be delivered slower, so PLAAF may in fact receive fewer J10C this year than it did the years before?
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if this become true, it shouldn't have significant impact to delivery in total number, but only incease.
ealier this year or later last year we saw the picure of 24xJ-10 + 8xJ-20 in CAC factory, which later suggest most of those J-10 was to pakistan, so of course, the PLA receive of J-10 would be impacted, but since the 2nd factory of CAC started to deliver J-20, the total number of fighters delivered to PLA should be similar

my guess over this is like, current CAC has 4 x J-10 production line, which gives them ~ 50 J-10 annually.
GAC will then build 1 production first, then CAC will start to move 1 production line a time to GAC to maintain the production rate
at the end, there should be 4 x J-10 production line in GAC and 1 in CAC, total 60+ every year. like what they did with J-7 production.
 
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Totoro

Major
VIP Professional
Not sure why would CAC even want to keep any J10 lines, if most are handed over to GAC.

After all, if the end goal is to free up CAC to produce even more J-20, that may come at procurement/use costs for PLAAF, to such an extent, that PLAAF may simply choose not to procure any more J-10 whatsoever for themselves. Especially if J-31 for PLAAF is indeed around the corner.
 
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stannislas

Junior Member
Registered Member
Totoro said:
Not sure why would CAC even want to keep any J10 lines, if most are handed over to GAC.

After all, if the end goal is to free up CAC to produce even more J-20, that may come at procurement/use costs for PLAAF, to such an extent, that PLAAF may simply choose not to procure any more J-10 whatsoever for themselves. Especially if J-31 for PLAAF is indeed around the corner.
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modification and upgrade in my opinion, CAC has a much stronger RnD ability than GAC, and Chengdu is x100 times better city to attract talents than Guizhou

I will leave the FC-31/J-31/J-35 out of the table at the moment, PLA always has a mindset of 'a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush', so until it become real, J-10 is a certain
 
tphuang

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
stannislas said:
if this become true, it shouldn't have significant impact to delivery in total number, but only incease.
ealier this year or later last year we saw the picure of 24xJ-10 + 8xJ-20 in CAC factory, which later suggest most of those J-10 was to pakistan, so of course, the PLA receive of J-10 would be impacted, but since the 2nd factory of CAC started to deliver J-20, the total number of fighters delivered to PLA should be similar

my guess over this is like, current CAC has 4 x J-10 production line, which gives them ~ 50 J-10 annually.
GAC will then build 1 production first, then CAC will start to move 1 production line a time to GAC to maintain the production rate
at the end, there should be 4 x J-10 production line in GAC and 1 in CAC, total 60+ every year. like what they did with J-7 production.
Click to expand...
Have we seen any proof that cac is still producing j10s for plaaf? I have only seen par j10 photos from cac this year. To me, cac has already shifted almost all of its production to j20.
 
BoeingEngineer

BoeingEngineer

Junior Member
Registered Member
Totoro said:
They probably could easily afford a dozen or so. Their military budget is 3.6+ billion USD a year. The have no real navy to spend on. Their army is largely conscript based and the overall personnel costs are fairly low, given that the purchasing power parity factor is 6 to 7 (cost of living and salaries are really low)

Sudanese air force is not that small on paper, they have dozens of Soviet era planes. But likely only some are truly operational. Whatever the real number, those are old and do need fairly urgent replacements.

In theory they could buy even more j10 planes but if dozens would be involved then it's plausible Saudis would be partially behind such a buy, as a way of saying thanks for support in Yemen war.
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When African countries buy weapons, specially east African. They always buys from country that can protect them !

China's J-10C is almost perfect for Sudan in this case.
 
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