Rafale has a minimum RCS of -20 dBSM, compared to the J-10C which has a minimum RCS around -8 or -10 dBsm. The J-10, however, has a 650-700mm class radar, while the Rafale has a 600mm class radar. This means the J-10's AESA, all other factors being equal, should be superior to that on the Rafale.
With RCS, however, 4.5th generation planes with externally-loaded missiles tend to ruin the RCS so the advantage of Rafale is less pronounced and the J-10C, with a larger radar aperture, can compete with the Rafale, although the Rafale will have an EW advantage.
The thing I'm more concerned with is a fight between J-10 and Rafale in WVR. The Rafale has a superior wing loading due to its design and can arguably have superior T/W to the J-10 depending on the engine employed and its specifications. Moreover, the Rafale has a J-20-like planeform, whereas the J-10 is relatively primitive (its only "juicy" parts are the anhedral-dihedral canard-wing loadout, which is also seen on Gripen).
It is questionable as to whether the J-10 can achieve an overwhelming superiority to the Rafale without TVC. But once you add TVC and WS-10X (i.e, 142-155kn) engines, the J-10 has no marked inferiority to the Rafale in any sphere, and it costs half as much as the Rafale to boot.
Game, set, match, goes to PakAF.
I'll also point out that if people are still in the market for F-16-likes, the J-10CE currently does not beat F-16V-types because the F-16V is strongly reengined. However, if you reengine the J-10CE for WS-10X with TVC, voila, the J-10CE is now superior to the F-16V.
What I really want to see is an upgraded J-10CE that can beat both the Rafale and F-16V BVR and WVR. I guess it's a bit of the fanboy in me, and perhaps the J-10CE is an obsolete platform, but the J-10CE deserves this upgrade.