The question is not affordability, but production capacity and on what it is based. And IMO to base such an estimation only on cost is too simple.
But anyway, back to the J-10.
J-10 Thread IV
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
The question is not affordability, but production capacity and on what it is based. And IMO to base such an estimation only on cost is too simple.
But anyway, back to the J-10.
First prototype made its first flight just a couple of months ago. Let it successfully go through the testing first.
Relatively new is a very stretchable term.
+there is a question of how much of your ORBAT shall be stealthy in the first place - and to what degree can PLAAF absorb decreased number of airframes and flight/combat hours. Especially in its current position.
Even nation with best ability to get engine power in the world struggles to get to the point where they can just say "screw it" and make everything sneaky. Even for the decade(s?) to come, attempts to drown the problem in limitless cash only makes the problem worse.
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plawolf
Lieutenant General
I think your underlying assumption is that the PLAAF will follow the trend set by western air forces and reduce numbers as it moves up generations. But I don’t think that will necessarily hold true.
The western air forces cut numbers because they had built up an excessive number of fighters during the Cold War which were not needed anymore after the collapse of the USSR.
China doesn’t have such a historical dividend to draw upon, and more critically, is being actively targeted and engaged by the US for a new Cold War.
Under that kind of threat, it would not be unreasonable for China to want to increase its fighter regiment numbers rather than decrease them. Just look at what is happening with PLAN numbers. Not suggesting the PLAAF will see anything like as dramatic an increase in numbers, but think the odds of an overall increase in PLAAF operational units and aircrafts is much higher than us seeing any reductions in the foreseeable future.
Yes, it will be more efficient in peacetime. But sadly I don’t think China can now afford to assume that they will continue to live in peacetime going forwards. At least not unless and until it has reached such military and economic might that the US is forced to permanently take the military options off the table.
So why not both? Indeed, I see moving the J10 production lines as preparation for precisely this, that CAC will now be able to focus on massively increase J20 production while Guizhou maintains J10C production.
If anything, I see J16 production ending way sooner than J10C, as SAC also ramps up production of J31/35s and keep the flanker production skills alive with J15 deliveries.
China currently has around 700~800 (my estimate) modern fighters, excluding J-20 and early J11s/J-10A/JH7/J7/J8
Japan has ~200 including future 123 F35s, Taiwan has 200~300 4th gens. Not to mention the USAF, which can probably transfer ~500 fighters to Japan and USN which has ~500 carrier fighters. And India from the backdoor with ~300 modern fighters
700~800 fighters may sound like a lot but in comparison to what China is facing its still not enough. Realistically I could see China even doubling it's J-10 and J-16 fleet by 2030 and ramping up to 70-80 J-20 a year. Only then will it finally tip the balance in China's favour where Japan and the US decide it's not worth to get involved in any Taiwan scenario.
Japan has ~200 including future 123 F35s, Taiwan has 200~300 4th gens. Not to mention the USAF, which can probably transfer ~500 fighters to Japan and USN which has ~500 carrier fighters. And India from the backdoor with ~300 modern fighters
700~800 fighters may sound like a lot but in comparison to what China is facing its still not enough. Realistically I could see China even doubling it's J-10 and J-16 fleet by 2030 and ramping up to 70-80 J-20 a year. Only then will it finally tip the balance in China's favour where Japan and the US decide it's not worth to get involved in any Taiwan scenario.
And, I think most here are going on the assumption that production capacity will be increasing, drastically, in the near future.
China has never, before, had the economic or industrial capacity to commit to a production run like the US and USSR did, in the ‘60s and ‘70s, with the F-4 and MiG-23, respectively. Not that numbers comparable to those runs are either necessary, or even achievable, contemporarily, but a run comparable to that of the F-35 for a Chinese 5th gen platform (J-35/31), I think, will be absolutely essential in order to maintain competitive equity going forth.
I love how this forum always goes off topic and deino has to repeatedly tell us to stay on topic
How useful are additional J-10C these days when it has to face the F-22 or F35?
My view is not very useful at all, particularly if you have access to 5th gen stealth fighters AND already have a large number of 4th gen fighters.
J-10C is basically F-15EX level in terms of tech.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Not everything that flies are F35s or F22s. Besides you are making an useless comparison pitching J10Cs against F35s when in reality it’s going to be J20+J35+J10C vs F35s and F22s and F18s etc.
Stealth fighters have limited internal carriage. J10C with missiles eats F35 without missiles for lunch any day of the week. Even more so when fighting WVR. And with J20s and J35s in the picture, will F35s want to take pot shots at J10Cs and risk exposing themselves to retaliation by Chinese stealths?