The problem with J-10 is that it's not multi-role enough. Using something like J-10 to do ground attack is a complete waste. That's why you never see it flying with more than 2 SRAAM + 4 MRAAM. All the other pylons can only hold ground attack munitions. Doesn't make a lot of sense for PLAAF to use those pylons since it makes J-10 less effective in the A2A roles.
As great at J-10 is in the A2A role, it is completely outclassed by J-20. The gap between stealth and non-stealth aircraft is just huge. The return on investment from trying to develop a new variant of J-10 is not very high. On the other hand, J-16 is basically all PLAAF ever wanted in a 4th generation aircraft. We still J-16s spearheading most of the incursions next to Taiwan, because they have the legs to do it. As PLAAF continues to improve its long range capability, we will see them making longer incursions to Japanese islands or maybe even Okinawa. J-10Cs just don't have the range to do that. They also don't have J-16s growth potential into something like Su-34 or F-15EX. Could we see SAC developing a version of J-16 with conformal fuel tanks that can do long range strikes and conduct jam opposing air defenses with its large radar? Sure. J-10C does not have the potential to do it. There will probably be 600 to 700 J-10s in service by the time they stop procuring it domestically. That seems like enough aircraft to handle all the non F-35 threat. Beyond that, what's the purpose for more J-10s once all the J-7s are withdrawn from active units? If we look at possible future conflicts for China, I don't see too many places where J-10s are that relevant. Now, J-10Cs would not have the same issue in Pakistan, since its range/payload covers all the possible Indian scenarios they have. From now on, you might see more export orders of J-10s than domestic orders.
Again, J-10 has a special place in my heart because we were all scouring the Chinese bbs back in 2004 to 2006 for any real photos of J-10. The entire project trained an entire generation of engineers at CAC and all of the supply chain. Now, it will do wonders to elevating the production/assembly capabilities at Guizhou. J-10B/C also served as a great test ground for the new avionics architecture they eventually implemented on J-20s. The J-10B TVC prototype has been a great testing ground for eventually putting having TVC on J-20s. Moving its production to Guizhou is a sign that they are not planning major changes to this platform anymore. Now, CAC can concentrate on ramping up J-20 production as much as possible. I think new versions to J-10 will be driven by export customers. This will be the best fighter jet China can offer in the export market for the next 5 to 8 years.
