J-10 Thread IV

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
jobjed said:
That's the FMS cost, at $88 million. The actual flyaway cost which the USAF pays is far lower, possibly even lower than the estimated cost of the J-10C. For instance, the F-18 Super Hornet's flyaway cost was ~$60 million but its FMS cost is double that at $120 million. Unlike with the shipbuilding industry, China has no significant, if any, cost advantage over the US in the aviation department.
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The USAF hasn't bought a F-16 in years.

Plus the quotes I've seen indicate the latest F-16 are $70M-$80M flyaway cost.
 
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Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
We've already seen China drastically shrink the size of the air force, with thousands of obsolete planes not replaced over the past 25 years. So it's not unrealistic to see some further reductions, although nothing to the extent we saw before.

And on the contrary, the J-7 and J-8 are perfectly adequate against the lesser opponents right next to China's borders, once China's existing modern fighters have achieved air superiority .
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Correct. There will be SOME reduction in numbers, but wholesale retiring of legacy fighters without significant replacement is not going to happen. And that's why a cheap fighter is being produced, the J-10.

The J-7 and J-8 are not adequate against the lesser opponents because if you are trying to make some kind of argument against the J-10's short legs then you cannot even remotely make this current argument. In any case these planes are meant to defend China's airspace against incursions, not to invade another country's airspace once "air superiority" has been achieved. Put it another way, a country that can invade China's airspace is a country that can swat J-7s and J-8s out of the sky.

AndrewS said:
Plus I don't think the J-10C is 3x cheaper than a J-20. Look at the cost differential between the F-16/F-35/F-22.

The F-35 has seen a dramatic cost decrease, and is now approaching the cost of the latest new-build single-engine F-16s.
And the current F-35 cost ($90M) is two-thirds of the last F-22s that were built ($139M).

And in a few years time, China will start mass-producing J-20, which will drive down costs significantly.

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Personally I think J-10 production will wind down to 10-20 per year.

That keeps the production line open for low-cost spares/maintenance for the large fleet of existing airplanes and does help with replacing some of the old obsolete airplanes
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It is 3x cheaper, at least from the open source numbers we have at the moment. It comes down to waiting to see what CAC does. Right now, the default is certainly continued J-10C production at a fast pace and a J-10C-mediated replacement of the legacy fighters.
 
FORBIN

FORBIN

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
Very possibly, depending on the avionics.
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No simple important qty ordered in more a variant of the F-18 so not completely new and the EA-18G with EW system is also cheaper
It is a price for 28 - 42 birds by year ! F-16 production almost finished last years 1/month...
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Iron Man said:
Correct. There will be SOME reduction in numbers, but wholesale retiring of legacy fighters without significant replacement is not going to happen. And that's why a cheap fighter is being produced, the J-10.

The J-7 and J-8 are not adequate against the lesser opponents because if you are trying to make some kind of argument against the J-10's short legs then you cannot even remotely make this current argument. In any case these planes are meant to defend China's airspace against incursions, not to invade another country's airspace once "air superiority" has been achieved. Put it another way, a country that can invade China's airspace is a country that can swat J-7s and J-8s out of the sky.


It is 3x cheaper, at least from the open source numbers we have at the moment. It comes down to waiting to see what CAC does. Right now, the default is certainly continued J-10C production at a fast pace and a J-10C-mediated replacement of the legacy fighters.
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And now one week later, Janes is reporting that J-20 production will increase to up to 36 per year, with a total of 100 to be delivered by the end of 2020.

If that is confirmed, then it is likely that China's legacy fighters will mainly be replaced by the J-20, and that J-10C production will dwindle.

I guess the announcement was just waiting for last week's Congress to finish.

The Congress was basically about a 30 year plan for a prosperous, hi-tech, clean China with a world class military that is a global power.

We all knew that was always the plan, but now it is official.
 
Deino

Deino

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
And now one week later, Janes is reporting that J-20 production will increase to up to 36 per year, with a total of 100 to be delivered by the end of 2020.

If that is confirmed, then it is likely that China's legacy fighters will mainly be replaced by the J-20, and that J-10C production will dwindle.

I guess the announcement was just waiting for last week's Congress to finish.

The Congress was basically about a 30 year plan for a prosperous, hi-tech, clean China with a world class military that is a global power.

We all knew that was always the plan, but now it is official.
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Ähhhm ... another option: What about Jane's being wrong ?!
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
I wouldn't be surprised if most resources were focused on J-20. Provided it's actually a competent 5th gen fighter, there's good reason to completely scale back other fighters and focus on J-20 to help get that price down. Even with interim engines since they're good enough and having J-20s is better than squadrons of J-10s.
 
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