J-10 Thread III (Closed to posting)

[manqiangrexue]

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I'm sorry Admiral Zhang, starting this year, Taiwan's F-16 fleet will be upgraded with the APG-83 SABR AESA radars, so the J-10B would only be of equal match to Taiwan's F-16 fleet.

I'm assuming the Admiral is talking about the current situation, not that the J-10B's, as they are, are guaranteed superiority over the ROC air force forever into the future. Supposedly, Lockheed will start to make a radar assembly line in 2016 and complete the upgrades by November 2021, and that's just the planned schedule assuming no delays or overruns so this isn't exactly a cooked duck. What kinda radar will J-10B/C be using in 2021? What about J-20?

 

[SpicySichuan]

I'm assuming the Admiral is talking about the current situation, not that the J-10B's, as they are, are guaranteed superiority over the ROC air force forever into the future. Supposedly, Lockheed will start to make a radar assembly line in 2016 and complete the upgrades by November 2021, and that's just the planned schedule assuming no delays or overruns so this isn't exactly a cooked duck. What kinda radar will J-10B/C be using in 2021? What about J-20?

Well...according to Northrop Grumman, the company has already. delivered the first set of AESA radars to Taiwan in Jan. 2015. Therefore I assume that a significant number of Taiwan's 144 F-16s will be equipped with AESA by mid. 2016.

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Ultimately if an air war break out over the Taiwan straight (say DPP government declares de jure independence after winning the 2016 election), the ROCAF will lose most of its planes. However, AESA-armed F-16s could buy more time for U.S. forces to come to Taipei's aid and inflict more costs on PLAAF (quality of quantity here). Also, I doubted that the PLAAF will have more than 100 AESA-armed J-10B/J-16 in battle-ready condition by mid. 2016. If Beijing's current investment in the PLA modernization does not slow down, the most ideal time for invading Taiwan would be waiting until the PLAAF possesses 2-3 batches of J-20 (equipped with WS-15 engines) and around 200-300 AESA-armed J-10B/C operating along-side J-11s, J-16s, and AWACS. Finally the PLAN needs at least two fully operation carrier battle groups if it were to neutralize Taiwanese forces in Eastern Taiwan before U.S. assistance arrives. Basically if Beijing were to militarily neutralize Taiwan's defense, it needs to have its own Air-Sea battle concept. 2016 (and even 2020) would be too early. Also, who knows if the next U.S. President (maybe a Neocon hawk) will sell the F-35s to Taiwan.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Well...according to Northrop Grumman, the company has already. delivered the first set of AESA radars to Taiwan in Jan. 2015. Therefore I assume that a significant number of Taiwan's 144 F-16s will be equipped with AESA by mid. 2016.

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Ultimately if an air war break out over the Taiwan straight (say DPP government declares de jure independence after winning the 2016 election), the ROCAF will lose most of its planes. However, AESA-armed F-16s could buy more time for U.S. forces to come to Taipei's aid and inflict more costs on PLAAF (quality of quantity here). Also, I doubted that the PLAAF will have more than 100 AESA-armed J-10B/J-16 in battle-ready condition by mid. 2016. If Beijing's current investment in the PLA modernization does not slow down, the most ideal time for invading Taiwan would be waiting until the PLAAF possesses 2-3 batches of J-20 (equipped with WS-15 engines) and around 200-300 AESA-armed J-10B/C operating along-side J-11s, J-16s, and AWACS. Finally the PLAN needs at least two fully operation carrier battle groups if it were to neutralize Taiwanese forces in Eastern Taiwan before U.S. assistance arrives. Basically if Beijing were to militarily neutralize Taiwan's defense, it needs to have its own Air-Sea battle concept. 2016 (and even 2020) would be too early. Also, who knows if the next U.S. President (maybe a Neocon hawk) will sell the F-35s to Taiwan.

I believe your sources have indicated that the first radar was delivered to Lockheed Martin in Jan. 2015. Delivery to ROC as an operational unit installed on an F-16 is far away, with completion scheduled in 2021 November.

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Neutralizing ROC's forces would not be done by a massive fleet of aircraft, nor would any aircraft carriers be needed; it would probably be done via missile barrage, F-35s or no F-35s. Aircraft will then be dispatched to maintain air superiority and cover while troops are landed in the chaos after the missile strike. In any case, we're getting way off topic.

 

[SpicySichuan]

I believe your sources have indicated that the first radar was delivered to Lockheed Martin in Jan. 2015. Delivery to ROC as an operational unit installed on an F-16 is far away, with completion scheduled in 2021 November.

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Neutralizing ROC's forces would not be done by a massive fleet of aircraft, nor would any aircraft carriers be needed; it would probably be done via missile barrage, F-35s or no F-35s. Aircraft will then be dispatched to maintain air superiority and cover while troops are landed in the chaos after the missile strike. In any case, we're getting way off topic.

Thank you for the info! Another thing I am wondering is that lots of Taiwan's F-16s and IDFs are in caves, so can J-10A/B/C carry bunker-busting bombs. Because most precision-guided bunker-busting bombs in the USAF are too heavy to be delivered by F-16s.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Thank you for the info! Another thing I am wondering is that lots of Taiwan's F-16s and IDFs are in caves, so can J-10A/B/C carry bunker-busting bombs. Because most precision-guided bunker-busting bombs in the USAF are too heavy to be delivered by F-16s.

Bigger bombs and bunker busters may be carried by J-11 and JH-7 or even H-6 if the skies are cleared. J-10B is probably for air cover since it's the nimblest. Doesn't make too much sense to me to use a light, nimble, short-legged fighter as a bomber, hobbling its maneuverability advantage and further lowering its range. Plus, I don't think any aircraft can carry a missile that's more apt at bunker-busting than a large, land-launched missile.

 

[kwaigonegin]

Thank you for the info! Another thing I am wondering is that lots of Taiwan's F-16s and IDFs are in caves, so can J-10A/B/C carry bunker-busting bombs. Because most precision-guided bunker-busting bombs in the USAF are too heavy to be delivered by F-16s.

The answer to that question is depends on how deep the facility is. Until such info is known it's futile to discuss the effectiveness of the bunker busters or how much a fighter/bomber can carry. Once that info is known than a specific type penetrator can be retorfitted to things like JDAMs and Paveways.

 

[rhino123]

Thank you for the info! Another thing I am wondering is that lots of Taiwan's F-16s and IDFs are in caves, so can J-10A/B/C carry bunker-busting bombs. Because most precision-guided bunker-busting bombs in the USAF are too heavy to be delivered by F-16s.

I know it is OT, so I will keep it brief. You don't go to war with just 1 type of aircraft, you enter war with an entire military systems, which include everything from missiles (land launched, submarine launched, ship launched, etc) to ships to different type of aircraft, all coordinated together.

So it is really not relevant whether J-10A/B/C can carry bunker busting bombs or what.

 

[vesicles]

Thank you for the info! Another thing I am wondering is that lots of Taiwan's F-16s and IDFs are in caves, so can J-10A/B/C carry bunker-busting bombs. Because most precision-guided bunker-busting bombs in the USAF are too heavy to be delivered by F-16s.

No need to hit the caves at all. Once the PLA gains air superiority and most likely the island, those few F-16's hidden in caves can't do anything. By that time, there would be little fuel, munition, spare parts and even food left (only what was originally hidden in caves). With little supply left, those few F-16's can't do much.

 

[tphuang]

let's cut out this Taiwanese F-16 discussion. Completely off topic.

 

[Pampa]

Hi all
A recent press information anticipated that there is an offer for a batch of about 18 J-10B for the Argentina Air Force.
An Argentine military delegation would travel to China next month to know capabilities on the plane and move forward into the details of the offer.
The proposal would have emerged during the last visit of the Chinese delegation who recently meet the Argentine Minister of Defense and apparently aircraft would be "ready for delivery" ( I guess if "maybe" could be the Batch 01 of which 14 aircraft were in the CAC factory in Dic2014 ready to be received by the PLAAF).
Any comments from there will be welcome.
Thanks in advance and best regards