I am actually more convinced now that Israel will not do a full ground invasion of Gaza. The complicating factors are too much compared to the easy way out, which is to not do the ground invasion and do somekind of face saving air assault or limited ground raids.
1. Potential Iranian or proxies of Iranian backed militia's like Hezbollah intervening
2. Huge backlash from Arab world. They might be forced to act with some kind of economic or military backlash if there are too much casualties or attempts to force gazans to flee Gaza.
3. A big war in Israel with missiles raining in would make Israel extremely risky for its citizens who are mostly settlers from places like Europe. They can think its too risky to stay in Israel and do migration to Europe or US. This will be a big blow to the Zionism.
4. US getting bogged down trying to fight a new war in the middle east will be a death knell for Ukraine who needs more weapons to survive.
5. US getting bogged in Middle East will mean China gets a free hand in the Pacific. A crisis in the South China Sea with the Phippines will not seem all that bad for China if US is not in the picture fully. Then there is the fear of Taiwan invasion or a flare up in North Korea.
Too many risks and not much reward for Either Israel or US other than revenge.
The easier way out is to do more bombing. Build up a bigger and stronger fence. More guards to prevent Hamas raids. I think they will take the easier way out. Especially with US pressure. Minds are sobering up every day.
