Hamas gone yolo because of circumstances. USA has anything to loose if a Nimitz aka US territory get attacked by a non state. This is so meta lol
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)
- Thread starter phrozenflame
- Start date
I listened to two other podcast with Szewko.
First - an interview - didn't have any new information beyond historical and political background in Israel which is relevant for decision-making. It was difficult to structure like the previous podcast so I put together some dates and numbers and tried my best.
1.
The conflict over Palestinian land is about territory itself but what is different is purpose and (social focus) by movement and [party]
The question of land is mostly centered around West Bank and East Jerusalem b/c:
2.
This is population of all illegal Israeli settlements over time with dates of elections and political option in power (red - left, blue - right).
East Jerusalem stabilized at 150k in 1993, has 230k today. Gaza had 7,8k until 2005.
3.
Palestinian territory in West Bank is divided by roads connecting them which are under Israeli military administration effectively leading to this:
In 1993 Oslo Accords Palestine accepted 1949 armistice lines. Israelis rejected it and continued expanding the settlements.
Both in 1993 and 2000 the government was Labour but acting under pressure from Likud and reular physical threats from the right.
Labour PM Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated in 1995 for signing the Oslo accords by a nationalist.
4.
Political stability in Israel:
Knesset has one electoral district with low thresholds and is highly fragmented politically. 61/120 seats are necessary for majority and as long as main party has sufficiently high support those coalitions are stable and largely follow main party policies.
While support for religious parties is stable at 15-25%. Shift in number of seats that major parties gain makes all the difference. With falling support for main parties smaller parties dictate term.
5.
Ethnic cleansing of Palestinians
Non-religious coalition is only possible between Likud and centrist parties like the "national unity" government in 2020 which then can exclude Arab and leftist parties. The main problem here was the role of Netanyahu as a strongman and other personal politics. Every other coalition mathematically must include religious parties.
There will be no change of policy without lasting realignment of the political system in Israel.
6.
In 2006 Hamas won 15/24 (62%) seats in Gaza and 30/42 (71%) seats in WB. Votes: Hamas 44,45% vs Fatah 41,43%. No elections since then.
----
Second - on Szewko's YT channel - was in response to the previous which had very high viewership so repeated many facts and focused on commentary of current events:
Sorry for terse language. 10k limit.
First - an interview - didn't have any new information beyond historical and political background in Israel which is relevant for decision-making. It was difficult to structure like the previous podcast so I put together some dates and numbers and tried my best.
1.
The conflict over Palestinian land is about territory itself but what is different is purpose and (social focus) by movement and [party]
- labour zionism needs land so that a working class for the Jewish people can be established (middle and lower-class)
- liberal zionism [centre, switches allegiance] needs land for prosperity and security (middle-class)
- revisionist zionism [right, centre-right] needs land so that a Jewish state can be established modeled on European nationalisms (middle and upper-class)
- religious zionism [religious parties] needs land so that the temple can be rebuilt and messiah can arrive (religious fundamentalists)
The question of land is mostly centered around West Bank and East Jerusalem b/c:
- security buffer
- access to water
- 5655km2 of area that is more livable (unlike Negev - half of Israel's area ~10k km2)
2.
This is population of all illegal Israeli settlements over time with dates of elections and political option in power (red - left, blue - right).
- Jump 1981-84, likely consequence of instability in second Begin govt. which included radical elements.
- Growth during negotiation of Oslo accords was deliberate strategy to sabotage any peace with Palestine (see: recording of Netanyahu with settlers)
- 1967-76 (Labour) - 24
- 1977-84 (Likud) - 84!
- 1985-91 (Labour) - 18
- 1996-99 (Likud) - 6
- 2012-13 (Likud) - 2
- 1983 - 22,8k
- 1993 - 111,6k (+400%)
- 2004 - 234k (+100%)
- 2014 - 400k (+70%)
- 2023 - 500k (+25%)
East Jerusalem stabilized at 150k in 1993, has 230k today. Gaza had 7,8k until 2005.
3.
Palestinian territory in West Bank is divided by roads connecting them which are under Israeli military administration effectively leading to this:
In 1993 Oslo Accords Palestine accepted 1949 armistice lines. Israelis rejected it and continued expanding the settlements.
- In 2000 Barak offered to form a Palestinian state initially on 73% of the West Bank growing to 92% in 25 yrs. and 100% of Gaza Strip.
- Only large settlements in WB retained. Kiryat Arba/Hebron as an Israeli enclave linked to Israel by a bypass road
- WB split in the middle by Israeli road from Jerusalem to the Dead Sea
- WB and Gaza linked by elevated highway, Israeli-controlled.
- Palestinian airspace controlled by Israel.
- No Right to Return for Palestinian refugees, only compensation.
Both in 1993 and 2000 the government was Labour but acting under pressure from Likud and reular physical threats from the right.
Labour PM Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated in 1995 for signing the Oslo accords by a nationalist.
4.
Political stability in Israel:
- 1949-1977 only left wing coalition govt.
- 1977-1996 left (Alignment) and right (Likud) have support 35-45% stabilising the country.
- In 1996 the fracture begins with minor parties gaining more votes and Likud begins to very aggressively pander to right-wing voters but struggles to maintain consistent support over 30%.
Knesset has one electoral district with low thresholds and is highly fragmented politically. 61/120 seats are necessary for majority and as long as main party has sufficiently high support those coalitions are stable and largely follow main party policies.
- 1949 -1973 the left had consistently over 50-60 seats
- 1977-1996 no party wins more than 50 seats (Likud: 48 in 1981)
- 1996-2023 no party wins more than 40 seats (Likud; 38 in 2003).
While support for religious parties is stable at 15-25%. Shift in number of seats that major parties gain makes all the difference. With falling support for main parties smaller parties dictate term.
- 2021 right wing gained 24,15% and 29/120 seats to Likud's 24,2% and 30/120
- 2022 - 24,95% and 32/120 seats to Likud's 23,4% and 32/120
5.
Ethnic cleansing of Palestinians
- is not the policy of labour zionist/left parties
- is an explicit policy of religious parties.
- is a de facto policy of revisionist zionists who accept status quo but must cater to religious right to maintain power
- is not the explicit policy of state of Israel but is de facto
Non-religious coalition is only possible between Likud and centrist parties like the "national unity" government in 2020 which then can exclude Arab and leftist parties. The main problem here was the role of Netanyahu as a strongman and other personal politics. Every other coalition mathematically must include religious parties.
There will be no change of policy without lasting realignment of the political system in Israel.
6.
In 2006 Hamas won 15/24 (62%) seats in Gaza and 30/42 (71%) seats in WB. Votes: Hamas 44,45% vs Fatah 41,43%. No elections since then.
- Hamas had comparable support to Fatah but gained majority
- Hamas had lower support in Gaza than in WB, Gaza had more independent candidates.
- Hamas needs to maintain support to remain nominally in power for any political settlement esp. international
----
Second - on Szewko's YT channel - was in response to the previous which had very high viewership so repeated many facts and focused on commentary of current events:
- Most Jihadist organisations (AlQ, ISIS etc) don't acknowledge Hamas as a legitimate jihadist and Islamic movement. Hamas uses attacks on Israel as legitimisation i.e. ISIS never attacked Israel.
- Suspicious coincidences of Hamas always attacking when Israel needs it. Mossad links still active? Why Isreal doesn't kill Hamas leadership? Etc.
- IDF focuses on the north. Arab Al-Aramshe outpost attacked by Hezbollah. IRGC informed of H's attempt to infiltrate Maayan Baruch kibbutz. Escalation seems inevitable.
- Hysterical propaganda (Biden w. fake news - beheaded children, holocaust comments ) is justification for prolonged bombardment of Gaza before any ground incursion and perhaps explusions of population.
- The amount of fake news from Israel is astounding. It's likely staging for ethnic cleansing.
- Israel wants Gaza to evacuate to Sinai. Egypt fears radical population staging attacks from its territory. Sisi in talks w. UAE on funds for refugees.
- Details on how Israel breaks intl. law and commits war crimes
- Erdogan is changing its position and criticises the US and Israel, spoke with Russia and UN. Turkey and Qatar have close relationship and supported Hamas.
- Hamas has many recruits in Yemen. Houthi declared support if US intervenes. Wants to expel Israel from UN for violating Charter.
Sorry for terse language. 10k limit.
Last edited:
I don't know how credible this YouTube channel, WION, is but they're pushing the narrative that a guy named Mohammed Deif is responsible for planning the attack. According to WION, Deif started planning back in May 2021 after Israel launched an attack on a mosque. I guess this war isn't going to end anytime soon now. Waiting for the narrative to change blaming Iran like Iraq was blamed back in 2003 for Sept 11 attacks on NYC.
They're citing unnamed Israeli sources. Let's see if this narrative takes hold in other MSM outlets. The funny thing about this narrative, is this Deif guy is paralyzed (according to WION) and in hiding somewhere in Gaza. I just can't help but think of OBL.
A united Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey is a nightmare for the US/Israel/West.
Can't China spare an old "Silkworm" or two???Actually the biggest casualty is Israel's aura of invincibilty and especially in that region that signals weakness and vulnerability and invites trouble.I am a "softy" and hate seeing kids -Jewish or Arab hurt or killed-it was a world they never made.
Hamas is impossible. Hezbollah(and Syria) are the dangerous variables here.
They and a real possibility of friendly Russian OtH targeting data - just as a return courtesy for the Black Sea.