Video of another abandoned military base in Syria. The video shows Syrian military equipment, Soviet and Russian production. Abandoned tanks T-90A, T-72, T-55. Also visible in the frame is the ZSU-23-4 Shilka air defense system, infantry fighting vehicles and other military equipment of the Syrian army.
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)
- Thread starter phrozenflame
- Start date
It looks like the IDF encountered the real life version of "12 years olds massacred us in paintball"
Humiliation of Lebanon continues. They made a good account of themselves against Israel in the 1990s and in 2006, but this time Israel beat them into submission.
Another big win for Israel/US is the increasing political marginalization of Hezbollah. New President of Lebanon Joseph Aoun is a Maronite educated at Lebanese American University who also underwent counter-terrorism training in the United States in 2008 (basically US asset). And new PM of Lebanon was appointed despite opposition from Hezbollah. Hezbollah was essentially circumvented.
Now look at this Cradle report from Oct 29, 2024:
Plans that Americans have set for Lebanon have been put into action.
Another big win for Israel/US is the increasing political marginalization of Hezbollah. New President of Lebanon Joseph Aoun is a Maronite educated at Lebanese American University who also underwent counter-terrorism training in the United States in 2008 (basically US asset). And new PM of Lebanon was appointed despite opposition from Hezbollah. Hezbollah was essentially circumvented.
Now look at this Cradle report from Oct 29, 2024:
Plans that Americans have set for Lebanon have been put into action.
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Very heavy coping there given that Israel throughout the war has advanced less total than Russia usually does in a day. And defeated less and much less armed enemies in a year than Russia does in a month.
This puts into perspective just how far from finished the middle Eastern conflict is. Granted the anti Israel forces are mostly not advancing either and had some of their gains in Lebanon/North Israel rolled back.
Absolutely not. It's delusional to think this was anything other than comprehensive Israeli victory. Israel completed its main strategic objective by dissociating Gaza front from Lebanese one. Just two months before he was killed, Hassan Nasrallah stated there would no separation of Gaza from Lebanon. Three months later, Hezbollah completely reversed its stance. Additionally, Israel forced Hezbollah to conclude a humiliating ceasefire agreement which essentially allowed Israel to completely ravage the South of Lebanon for entire two months (Lebanese gov even granted them some extra time), while Hezbollah was forced to sit on the sidelines and watch. During the ceasefire period, Israelis even managed to advance to places they were unable to reach when the fighting was taking place. Clearly, Hezbollah leadership concluded their defenses were about to crack or that military and civilians casualties Israel was inflicting on them were unacceptable. Otherwise, they would never agree to such humiliating terms.
Now that the deadline for Israeli withdrawal has expired, Israelis have decided they will remain in 5 locations in South Lebanon. And Lebanese President is like "the Lebanese response will be through a unified, comprehensive national position" LOL. As I have said, Lebanon was beat into submission.
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After 1.5 years, in land, lives and likely money, Palestine & allies has only lost about as much as Ukraine lost in Bakhmut... You can add as many random adjectives like humiliating or comprehensive as you want, a "comprehensive" victory over 20km2 is not a war winning situation.
Especially not for a country in full conscription mode that's taking about as much casualties as the enemy.
It could be the start of a more general retreat and weakening of the defenders, but there would likely be years until the stalemate is over.
Anybody who is rational will obviously agree that this are facts.
However you make it sound like Hezbollah is at fault here. What do you expect them to do? Declare another war on Israel? This will only make things worse for them than they are already. Even more so With Trump back in power and ful unconditional backing of Israel against any war to be fought against Hezbollah. So not a good thing at all for Hezbollah.
Moreover, I actually made a similar remark/prediction on this thread when this war was still unfolding middle of last year. I said Hezbollah made a mistake getting involved in the Israel/Hamas war since this will weaken Hezbollah militarily(not just in casualties of death and wounded) but even more so politically in the country as their internal political opponents will try and use the vacuum left by them(coupled with public opinion of those in public against the war due to damage and casualties they suffer) to take advantage of them politically in the country(which is normal as politicians around the world act the same). This is something they should have factor in their decision making which I think they neglect.
What I didn't expect was that Israel not only inflicted severe damage to Hezbollah and the country but they even took out most of Hezbollah leadership hence giving opportunity for political opponents in the country to make use of this vacuum which seems to be paying out now. This also had the unintended consequence of weakening the group and quickening the fall of their biggest ally and backer Assad in Syria who was the land bridge which Hezbollah could use to retreat and supply themselves as a land corridor which stretched all the way to Tehran. Now they are cut off from that and boxed in between 2 hostile countries now. The only way Iran can suplly them now is through which is more dangerous and complex as Israel can easily keep tabs or control it than before. An example just recently
Indeed Hezbollah is not in a good position. Things will be hard for them this coming years. Not as optimistic as they were before they decided to join the war unfortunately.
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The deadline for Hezbollah to act was after the IDF advanced into Gaza. They could have done a lot of damage in that time, because they would still have had their stockpiles of rockets and missiles to use against Israel. This would have invited Israel to fight on two fronts at once, which was never a possibility for them. This would have further weakened the IDF and Israel as a state for economic and social reasons. But the inevitable happened. As soon as the Gaza war became milder and more controlled, the IDF focused on Hezbollah, decapitated its leadership and destroyed its stockpiles of rockets and missiles.
Hezbollah's mistake in not acting sooner doomed the entire resistance, which was afraid of an open war with Israel. They are now in a weaker position than before, with the Axis of Resistance now being called the Axis of Defeat.
Hezbollah now ends up being more of a burden to Iran than a strategic asset to be used when it is most needed, which would be an attack on its nuclear facilities, which is closer than ever before.
Israel won.