Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

Sinnavuuty said:

The only problem with this theory is that the SAA is now weaker than before, the rebels seem to be more motivated and better armed, while the Russians are bogged down in Ukraine, the Iranians are stuck against Israel as well as Hezbollah, so everything favors the rebels to try to have greater chances of capitulating successes in these offensives.

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The rebels are Israel/US pawns, not an independent entity.

I always suspected that the Ukraine issue was orchestrated to divert Russian attention and resources away from the middleast so that these Israeli pawns can make their move.

Intensification of war in Syria may also draw a larger US/UK presence into the country which Israel would love because it could also slip directly into Gaza and Hezbollah's Lebanon.

This is the blueprint of Greater Israel.

Tootensky said:

Erdogan over the past few years seems to have been trying to really play a regional mastermind, play all the sides. Talk to the Americans, Russians, Chinese, to Israel... Cozy up to one side, then offend them and cozy up to another, assuming that in the end he'll end up in the middle, neutral to everyone. But he seems to have forgotten that if you befriend someone and then backstab them, you don't end up "at 0". He spent the past 2 years trying to play peacemaker in the Ukraine. Now that he supports an attack on Syria, where Putin invested quite a bit of political power supporting Assad, he pretty much took himself off the table. His bizzare version of "neutrality" has closed more doors than it opened. Who will want to deal with someone as unreliable and fickle as that?

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Makes one wonder if the recent F-35 deal with Turkey was carrot dangling.

quim said:

There are many Western and Israeli weapons killing Syrians, Russians, Lebanese and Iranians but no Chinese weapons killing Westerners. It's hoping for magic to think that the Global South will get rid of Western bullying without direct help to balance the forces. So as long as China does not change its doctrine, we cannot expect results other than these. And apparently China is not yet ready to challenge the West in every military adventures around the world.

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Haven't you seen the resistance' sniper footage in Gaza? 90% of them use the Chinese M-99 anti-material rifle.
Chinese ATGM were also seen in Gaza.

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I wonder what the Kurds are upto. They are usually well aligned with Israel and keep good ties.

obj 705A said:

the loss of large parts of Aleppo should not be described as just another instance of regular Arab militaries being incompetent. armies losing large parts within days is nothing new. remember Russia lost Kharkov within a very short while because they were outnumbered and determined that keeping Kharkov is unsustainable without huge losses.

if the SAA was massively outnumbered in that particular area then it makes sense why they withdrew like that.

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It's one thing to lose large areas of recently conquered land and quite a different thing to lose your second city. It's shocking that they didn't have enough troops to at least defend Aleppo. But of course it is a very poor country suffering from a long civil war.

Armies that don't believe in their mission will crumble and flee, just like the Ukrainians in 2014. In west Asia, the only countries and groups with regional power are those motivated by strong nationalism or religion, like Turkey and Iran or all the jihadi groups. Nobody wants to die for a king/lifetime president. That's why Arab armies are such a joke. I'd actually expect most of western europe to flee in the face of serious force as well. The ideology is too weak. We can be glad that China has a very strong ideology.

People only sacrifice their lives if they believe it's for something bigger than themselves. Why would you sacrifice for Assad? But they definitely would make sacrifices for Islam, whether it's Shia or Sunni

One thing, I feel, both Russia and Syria should have handled long ago is that US base at at-Tanf by the Iraqi border. That base is literally a cancer waiting to spread.

3d ago
No shit

Middle East Spectator has now published a video of summary executions of Syrian army captives being carried out by the US backed terrorists in Aleppo. See their channel on Telegram.

obj 705A said:

Israel is a far much more dangerous enemy to Hezbolah, I'm pretty sure Hezbolah won't move a single soldier against HTS and will keep them in Lebanon when the ceasefire in Lebanon inevitably collapses. the SAA has enough soldiers for their own needs and whatever gains the HTS achieved will likely be reveresed once the SAA regroups and brings in reinforcements from other regions of Syria. with this offensive the HTS has basically signed their own death warrant. the truce resulted in 5 years of relative peace in north western Syria and Assad was fine with that arrangement. by breaking the truce HTS has basically told Damascus that as long as HTS is alive then they will fight. this means there can only be peace if HTS is dead.

HTS will be crushed. unfortunately it's gonna take quite alot of time, several years probably. and this will distract from the genocide in Gaza. and that is probably the main goal of Turkey/Mossad/CIA unleashing these AlQaeda dogs at this particular time.

by the way HTS is classified as a terrorist organization by the UN and should be dealt with accordingly and they are subject to UN sanctions as a criminal organization so this is not a case of "one man's terrorists are another man's freedom fighters".

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any one who supports HTS supports terrorism.

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If it weren't for the Americans, non of these terrorist groups would even exist. If it weren't for the veto power, the US would have been designated a terrorist state since they dropped nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki or at least since they slaughtered millions of innocent people with Agent Orange in Vietnam.

Randomuser said:

Like what the hell happened?

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Whenever they catch a break, they get invaded and bombed by the Americans and dissected into smaller states. Whenever they get a good leader, the leader is promptly assassinated and the government overthrown by the Americans. A country needs time and money to rebuild and neither conditions are ever met in the modern history of Arab states unless they accept American supremacy in the region, AKA Israel. Any country that resists and doesn't recognize that shit hole is considered a threat and is bombed into the stone age.

Randomuser said:

North Korea is basically half a peninsula and yet they have managed to develop nukes and cause more seething to the west despite being poor and sanctioned over entire continents.

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You say that like it's a bad thing. Being surrounded by water and China is this ultimate gift and a recipe for growth. Being surrounded by American friends means you will never grow unless you join their club.

quim said:

What did you expect Assad to do in just a decade after having his country destroyed and isolated by sanctions that everyone still fears? magic?

Only Russia is helping Syria to a limited extent, while the US, Europe and Israel continue to arm radical Islamic terrorists with a mindset more backward than any medieval sultan to keep the Middle East in a state of constant war and penury.

Assad is a secular and rational leader, he is doing everything he can under the circumstances. Those who promote religious extremism are the West, arming fundamentalist tribes to weaken rational leaders.

It is also not appropriate to compare China's situation and its role in the Global South with the case of the Syrian war, since China does not participate in any military intervention in the world. China's role is still just commercial and avoiding sanctions and confrontations as much as possible, it has nothing to do with military actions.

There are many Western and Israeli weapons killing Syrians, Russians, Lebanese and Iranians but no Chinese weapons killing Westerners. It's hoping for magic to think that the Global South will get rid of Western bullying without direct help to balance the forces. So as long as China does not change its doctrine, we cannot expect results other than these. And apparently China is not yet ready to challenge the West in every military adventures around the world.

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Agree. I think this is a point many members here miss or choose to conveniently ignore.

I don't want to jump to conclusions but it might very well be over for Assad and his loyalists. His 'army' is being routed as we speak while he and his family are in Russia and other places abroad.

What is going to happen next? Syria carved up into 3 parts? Sunnistan, Alawistan and Kurdistan? Although the last one will be under severe pressure from Turkiye.

Edit: As they are starting the withdrawal from Homs (forget about Hama, that one is done), the loyal west-coast can be blockaded easily while the remnants can go to Damascus? Will they reorganize in Damascus?

sequ said:

I don't want to jump to conclusions but it might very well be over for Assad and his cronies. His 'army' is being routed as we speak while he and his family are in Russia and other places abroad.

What is going to happen next? Syria carved up into 3 parts? Sunnistan, Alawistan and Kurdistan? Although the last one will be under severe pressure from Turkiye.

Edit: As they are starting the withdrawal from Homs (forget about Hama, that one is done), the loyal west-coast can be blockaded easily while the remnants can go to Damascus? Will they reorganize in Damascus?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1862900940262543560

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1862901651159355584

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Turkish premature wet dreams.

coolgod said:

Turkish premature wet dreams.

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Well, it might be more over for Assad than his 'army' though:


Perhaps his brother will take over.

Statement by Scott Ritter:

"The offensive against Aleppo initiated by Turkish-allied Islamists from Hayat Tahir Al-Sham (a re-branded Al Qaeda that has made common cause with ISIS) and the US-allied Syrian National Army is the consequence of a strategic plan between the Israelis and Turks, backed by the US, to cut off the supply route from Iran to Lebanon for Hezbollah, and threaten to destabilize/topple the Assad government, forcing Russia to divert resources from Ukraine to salvage their position in Syria. Ukraine has provided advisors to the anti-Assad militants on drone warfare. Israel has apparently extended its explosive pager/radio scheme into Syria as well, disrupting Syrian tactical command and control at a critical moment in the fighting.

Syria had largely demobilized, and Hezbollah had mostly returned to Lebanon. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are ill prepared to contain this assault.

It is highly likely Aleppo will fall to the pro-Turkish Islamist forces. There will most likely be a concerted effort, led by Russia and Iran, to salvage the situation in Syria.

This will take time.
This offensive may threaten the ceasefire in Lebanon.
The biggest loser in all of this is Turkey and its President, Recep Erdogan.

This offensive could not have been carried out without close cooperation and coordination with Israel and the US.

Erdogan’s critical words against Israel have been exposed as empty rhetoric.

Erdogan has once again betrayed Russia.
And his support for Palestine has beed exposed as fraudulent in every way.

Russia and Iran will stabilize Syria.
This will take months.

Syria and its allies will destroy the Islamist stronghold in Idlib.
This will take years.

The Iran-Hezbollah supply line will be restored/maintained.
Israel will be defeated.
And the US will withdraw from Syria, probably in mid-2025.
And Turkey will continue to betray everyone it does business with, because Erdogan stands only for Turkey."

This describes exactly about the situation in Syria and that snake Erdogan.

Sardaukar20 said:

Syria and its allies will destroy the Islamist stronghold in Idlib.
This will take years.

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Last time they tried they got destroyed within a week.