Can anyone answer why Israel’s rivals tend to prefer low-to-medium intensity longer-range conflict?
Israel seems to excel at that. Its assassinations, bombings, and missile defence are top notch.
On the other hand, in higher intensity Ukraine-style war, numbers matter far more, and in that respect Israel is outmatched more than ten to one.
From Ukraine, we’ve seen that airforces can be fairly effectively suppressed with air defence.
Wouldn’t it be better for Israel’s rivals to escalate to a full land war?
Because in a full land war, the outcome won’t be decided on the battlefield. Even if the Arab armies wins overwhelming total victory against the IDF and wipes it out, all that would achieve is trigger Israeli nuclear attacks to delete said Arab armies and then threaten their capitals with a similar fate if they won’t back down.
Even if the Arabs manages to endure and/or neutralise the Israeli nuclear card, all that would achieve is trigger the direct entry of America into the war.
The Arabs recognise Israel as an American appendage in the ME, thus there can be no total victory against Israel without first being able to defeat or deter America, and that is frankly beyond all their combined might. So why even bother?
This is why Iran isn’t as desperate for nuclear breakout as one would have thought they would be. Since having nukes would paradoxically make them much more vulnerable, as that nuclear card would give the rest of the ME hope that total victory against Israel is finally attainable. That will very likely trigger them to push for such a war, which would be incredibly easy to do with the way Israel behaves. Then the entire ME’s hopes and dreams rests on Iran basically doing nuclear MAD with Israel, putting Iran in a no-win scenario of either being more hated than Israel by the rest of the ME and internal strife and possible revolution if it bottles it; or it goes out in a nuclear blaze of glory to rid the ME of Israel.
Instead, a much more survivable plan for Iran is to wait for America to attack China, at that point, win or loose, America will no longer have the power to intervene. Then, if Iran announces nuclear breakout, it can have a much greater chance of being able to deter nuclear attack by Israel and/or America, and make a conventional victory possible.