How could Iran be this bad in their intelligence department?
It's an elementary question with a very simple answer.
Khomeini was very much like Lenin. He was an ideological figure who radicalised the popular masses protesting against the Pahlavi regime and when the Shah fled under popular pressure he used the chaos to impose his own version of ideological authoritarianism, which went contrary to the more democratic and popular nature of the early revolution. Much like Lenin, Khomeini did not lead the popular revolution - he provided inspiration then surfed on its waves to power singing the praises of the mass movement and then ended the revolution with an authoritarian coup. But very much like Lenin he was charismatic and skillfully enough to disguise that plan in effective rhetoric.
The military did not react because they were largely demoralised during the revolution and didn't want to be seen as taking side of the unpopular Shah when it became obvious that the deposition of monarchy was inevitable. They also participated in violence earlier which made it difficult to react with force against the new "popular" authorities. When Khomeini began to impose more authoritarian rule the military resisted passively, by refusing to fully cooperate and hoping that this new political reality would fail over time.
And then suddenly they had to fight a war.
- Revolution began in January 1978.
- Pahlavi fled in January 1979.
- Khomeini returned from exile in February 1979.
- Khomeini became supreme leader in December 1979.
- Saddam invaded in September of 1980.
- The war ended in August 1988.
There was merely a
year between Khomeini claiming title of Supreme Leader and Saddam's invading Iran. Then there was the invasion and the following
eight years of warfare which Khomeini was quick to use against the military accusing them of anything short of overt rebellion and to build up his own loyalist formation - the Islamic Revolution Guard.
When the war ended the regime was already too established for the military to challenge it and there was no political faction that could be used to spearhead the revolution. The country was also tired of fighting and the military found itself under constant pressure from the regime. Then for over a decade they had to constantly monitor the outcome of US intervention in Iraq and then the US invaded and Iran became involved directly, although through proxies.
From 1979 until today Iran was not at war for perhaps 3 years out of 35.
At the same time the elections in Iran were retained as a perfunctory process that gives the masses an illusion of choice. Iranian regime functions very much like the communist governments in East Germany, Poland or Czechoslovakia where there were nominally multiple parties but where none of the results mattered because the "leading role" of the "vanguard party" was beyond democratic influence. Such system creates apathy as well as resentment and I can very well understand the mindset of the Iranian people because their current situation mirrors the situation in Poland in the 1980s.
This means that anyone seeking to recruit collaborators from
within state structure has two potential vectors of attack:
- military personnel - seeking to weaken the Pasdaran
- secular politicians - seeking to weaken the conservative political faction run by clerics
Note that for these two vectors to become valid
the collaborator does not need to want to overthrow the Islamic Republic! They only need to remove its authoritarian elements - the military one and the political one. That means that almost a nyone who isn't emotionally involved with the current regime - which includes disgruntled regime officers - is a potential candidate.
Also due to the un-democratic and un-meritocratic nature of the Iranian regime it is a viable solution for political rivals to use Israeli agents to remove their political opponents to open way for promotion or policy change. And Israel mindful of the value of such access will allow you to catch the assassin so as to protect yourself.
And that is sufficient for Israeli efforts because Israel doesn't seek to destroy Iran. They only need to ensure that the Iranian boogeyman isn't a threat they can't manage. And the collaborators also understand that Israel can't harm Iran so they are not acting against the interest of their country.
After all was Lenin a German agent and a Russian traitor or a cunning political operative and a Russian patriot?
That's the reality that Israeli collaborators in Iran are facing. And that's the reality that is invisible to anyone who believes the propaganda manufactured by the Shia regime.
And one more thing. This is the graph of Iran's population change from 1956 to 2016 dividing between rural and urban population.
At the bottom I marked two large urban population growth periods. The growth during the early Islamic Revolution and Iran-Iraq war (blue) indicates
rural population moving to the cities. The growth that follows (yellow) is a mix of rural migration and natural urban growth with the latter becoming the norm after 2000s. Currently 75% of Iran's population is culturally "urban" which is in contrast to the 70s when 75% of the population was culturally "rural".
Rural populations are more religious cross-culturally because religion is a binding element that is necessary for social cohesion. Urban populations are more secular cross-culturally because the density is already providing social cohesion that is often seen as excessive or unwanted.When the clerics rose to power they rose on the backs of "their"people. Currently they rule over people who do not identify with them and view the regime as an obstacle.
This sociological process is irreversible as the generations influence subsequent generations. In 2012 half of Iran's population was under the age of 35 which means that they have always known the regime. To such people the Islamic regime embodies all of the social, economic and political problems. Since then 10 million more were born. This process will only continue to weaken and erode the authority of the clerics. The collapse of a regime is inevitable. What form it takes - that remains to be seen. But the reason that Israel is capable of exploiting Iran's weaknesses so well is the consequence of the slow agony of the Iranian state in its current form.
If only we were on a Chinese-themed forum where the process of stagnation, ossification, corruption and hubris leading to political collapse would be readily understood based on similarities to Chinese history. Alas, we're not in one such place. We're somewhere much sillier.
