As expected. The last person who dared to compromise with Israel at such a time was Sadat, and then he died.
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)
- Thread starter phrozenflame
- Start date
Presumably Hezbollah has large numbers of Iranian U(C)AV as well.
The key question now is which way Hezbollah will jump. I expect a lot of their troops and commanders are thinking "If not now, when? If not now, what are we for?" I expect them to enter the war once IDF enters Gaza and gets bogged down in street fighting.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
I think the big question now is if Israel is angry and stupid enough to rush into Gaza quickly, or if they will just sit back and bomb them from afar while also starving them of basically everything but air.
The smart play from the Israelis would be to sit back and let logistics do the heavy lifting. It will create a humanitarian catastrophe, but without power and communications, the Israelis can effectively defer much of the world’s outrange until after its all over if it can keep videos from coming out of Gaza while the population die off en mass from thirst, starvation and disease.
The fear of such a move is probably why Hamas has taken so many Israeli hostages, to try to force Israel’s hand in moving in on the ground sooner rather than later.
Hamas is hoping that the need to free the hostages, and the daily rain of missiles that Iron Dome cannot fully deal with, will force Israeli into going in on the ground. In this, they seem to have the most unexpected allies, because Israeli politicians and even military commanders seem to have fully drank the Kool Aid on the myth of Israeli military invincibility and seem to want to send in the tanks ASAP to win back some of the face they lost earlier.
But if the Israelis do go in on the ground in a rush, they will seriously risk suffering an even more humiliating humbling by Hamas. Not only would Hamas still be near to full strength, the Israelis might learn to their cost that their called up reservists are little better than the Russian mobliks they love to mock despite their mandatory military service, when pulled from civilian life with little to no refresher training after years or even decades since they did their mandatory service, and with poor equipment and depleted logistics due to support for Ukraine.
The smart play from the Israelis would be to sit back and let logistics do the heavy lifting. It will create a humanitarian catastrophe, but without power and communications, the Israelis can effectively defer much of the world’s outrange until after its all over if it can keep videos from coming out of Gaza while the population die off en mass from thirst, starvation and disease.
The fear of such a move is probably why Hamas has taken so many Israeli hostages, to try to force Israel’s hand in moving in on the ground sooner rather than later.
Hamas is hoping that the need to free the hostages, and the daily rain of missiles that Iron Dome cannot fully deal with, will force Israeli into going in on the ground. In this, they seem to have the most unexpected allies, because Israeli politicians and even military commanders seem to have fully drank the Kool Aid on the myth of Israeli military invincibility and seem to want to send in the tanks ASAP to win back some of the face they lost earlier.
But if the Israelis do go in on the ground in a rush, they will seriously risk suffering an even more humiliating humbling by Hamas. Not only would Hamas still be near to full strength, the Israelis might learn to their cost that their called up reservists are little better than the Russian mobliks they love to mock despite their mandatory military service, when pulled from civilian life with little to no refresher training after years or even decades since they did their mandatory service, and with poor equipment and depleted logistics due to support for Ukraine.
My expectation is that, after the world sat back and, silently, observed the ethnic-cleansing of Armenians by Azerbaijan, we will, in this conflict, in fact, witness a genocidal campaign against Palestinians that will be met with like silence.
I remember when some Taiwanese milbloggers arguing that the current Taiwanese conscription system is flawed and they should emulate the Israeli system, I wonder what is he thinking right now after seeing this clusterfuck.
the problem is that american foreign policy is trapped in a fallacy. every time it tries to pivot towards China, away from other regions, those regions blow up, resulting in the need to commit even more resources to quell them.
That ignores the fact that Israel doesn't completely surround Gaza, there's a border with Egypt. Although the Egyptian government is pretty friendly with Israel, there are limits to what it'll tolerate. It won't accept a flood of Gazan refugees trying to force their way through the border.