Israel desperately needs a regional war and they need others to do the fighting and dying for them. This is something the US is trying to avoid. Iran is more comfortable using proxies than direct involvement simply because they don't have the resources for a direct confrontation. I'm expecting Iran to hold back or be convinced by the US via back channels to do so again. Look at the Iranian response after Israel bombed their Syrian embassy. A deal was made between Washington and Tehran.
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)
- Thread starter phrozenflame
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Israel desperately needs a regional war and they need others to do the fighting and dying for them. This is something the US is trying to avoid. Iran is more comfortable using proxies than direct involvement simply because they don't have the resources for a direct confrontation. I'm expecting Iran to hold back or be convinced by the US via back channels to do so again. Look at the Iranian response after Israel bombed their Syrian embassy. A deal was made between Washington and Tehran.
We don't know what the deal was. It could be a one event deal. Either someone in Iran got their hands greased or Iran was given something such as a temporary suspension (or lifting) of Western sanctions. IIRC, Iran had gold/money in Western banks which was withheld because of the '79 revolution. Maybe they got some back. I remember there was some noise made when President Obama released money back to Iran. I don't know if it was all of it or just part of it.
Yeah, any deal with the west tends to do that, hopefully Iran overwhelms the so called Israel Iron dome and actually bomb something important for once, Israel has declared all out war on Iran, really it’s long over due that the kid gives are taken off and every single US base in the region is set on fire
There has been a lot of wishful thinking about how Israeli society is on the brink, how Israel is near collapse, this and that on this thread. Yea nobody likes to see mass child murderers win, but some stuff here is borderline fantasy.
The strike reminds just how far ahead Israel is in terms of conventional warfare and have complete immunity from international rules and laws.
Iran needs to realize, that against a superior foe, only Nuclear weapons are a true defense. That, or they will eventually end up like Libya and Syria.
This isn't the first time this happened, last time they knocked out AD near Nuclear site after Iran did that whole TikTok missile strike after broadcasting it for 1 month.
Iran does not have any cutting edge sensors or network and F-35 can run circles around it. US has full airspace control over Jordan and Iraq, so not sure why people are surprised. F-35 gets sort of flak for the management of the program and naturally the element of bias, but it is a damn good plane as it is and compared to Iran, it's more than an overkill. But we still don't know tho, if it was F-35 or not.
The strike reminds just how far ahead Israel is in terms of conventional warfare and have complete immunity from international rules and laws.
Iran needs to realize, that against a superior foe, only Nuclear weapons are a true defense. That, or they will eventually end up like Libya and Syria.
This isn't the first time this happened, last time they knocked out AD near Nuclear site after Iran did that whole TikTok missile strike after broadcasting it for 1 month.
Iran does not have any cutting edge sensors or network and F-35 can run circles around it. US has full airspace control over Jordan and Iraq, so not sure why people are surprised. F-35 gets sort of flak for the management of the program and naturally the element of bias, but it is a damn good plane as it is and compared to Iran, it's more than an overkill. But we still don't know tho, if it was F-35 or not.
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Rather curious that 3 Iranian officials and 2 IRGC would be talking to the western media. One of three options. Iran deliberately told them, they have tons of moles everywhere, or this is made up. Number 1 is most likely. Not like it is the first time they did that.
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I did have initial suspicions that the Lebanon government was trying to downplay it by lying in hopes that Hezbollah doesn’t response. In any case, it hardly matters anymore since the ball was thrown over to Iran.
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If we do not know if the strike was with missiles or air, then it's open to supposition. But to underemphasize how pathetic the IDF is in its gaza campaign and its clashes in the north against hezbollah, how its ground forces are in high pressure, how many damaged machinery it had, and how the gaza campaign is a failure that turned into an occupation stalemate with an fully structured and organized HAMAS fighting with full readiness is a lot like denying the objective reality in front of us. Not in a coincidence, many here were convinced it would be a quick campaign and HAMAS would be destroyed. Not the case but a shame from IDF that it now clearly uses the attack on their leader with the added goal to save face their ridiculous campaign against an irregular force that is unseen since indochina.
Israel appears to want to escalate to a greater war. Hezbollah and Iran are going to retaliate and this time it’s not going to be limited like the April strike. Iran was humiliated and it was a strike on Iranian soil. It will drag the US as the political,financial and military elites all support Israel. They will not allow it to fail. Ultimately a full scale regional war will lead to the US getting kicked out of the region. The US military is no shape for a war like this. Not to mention the economic ramifications of this. If the US navy struggled with Yemen in the Red Sea blockade they’ll fail to against Iran if they close the straits of Hormuz with their more advanced weapons. We are literally staring at the abyss because of a madman in Netanyahu. This is fucking ridiculous .
No we didn’t. The expectations was that HAMAS would commit to guerrilla fighting. We already know how long and drawn out urban fighting can get. Even the Biden Admin told senators to prepare their constituents for a long war in Gaza. 2 days after October 7th.
It is not as if Iran is completely powerless. Iran has few partners and even fewer loyal and reliable allies. In addition, Iran faces internal, regional and global adversaries, rivalries such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and hostile enemies such as Israel and the United States. To make matters worse, Iran’s military capabilities, despite the efforts and resources expended, are limited in several areas; its economy is hampered by severe sanctions, which do not realistically allow for much higher defense spending than it already does; in the area of science and technology, the Iranians suffer several restrictions on access to sensitive technologies.
However, over the years, Iran has built considerable capabilities based on a strategic approach that allows it to be a relevant player in the regional and even international environment, despite its disadvantages, weaknesses and limitations. Based on the ability to counterattack with its ballistic missiles at great distances. Tehran has adopted an asymmetric approach to its defense: alliances with regional non-state actors, a focus on developing innovative military tactics, and making the most of its geographical location. Despite restrictions on access to technology and economic constraints, Tehran has developed capabilities in several areas: beyond ballistic missiles, such as drones, portable missiles, electronic warfare, and cyber.
In addition to the technological gap, intense rivalry and competition for spheres of influence, resources, equipment, and missions between the Armed Forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the lack of coordination between the two military services is a chronic problem.
Given Iran’s existing military strengths and weaknesses and the geopolitical environment in which it finds itself, it is likely that in the coming years Tehran will continue to invest in and align its military with the asymmetric strategy it has adopted to date. This likely trajectory is informed both by the lack of a realistic alternative and by the relative success of the strategy to date. The continued pressure of sanctions and low energy prices are likely to continue for many years to come, largely negating any potential opening for Tehran to find sufficient resources to invest in a conventional military to match that of its adversaries.
Meanwhile, the deterrent potential of Iran’s offensive capabilities in terms of missiles, non-state actor groups, cyber, and other aspects of its asymmetric forces is highlighted by the fact that all of Iran’s adversaries have refrained from a serious attack on its territory – even direct attacks by Iran on US bases and Saudi energy facilities have not led to an immediate counterattack on Iran’s territory.