Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

Michaelsinodef said:

Israel don't have that ability lol.

They could do it on Gaza because it is an incredibly little place, but the whole of Lebanon not only is far, far bigger with way more cities and buildings.

Hezbollah also very much has the ability to strike back at Israeli mitary bases, including airbases.

Also, it is doubtful that Israel even has enough munitions to even do a repeat of Gaza bombing in the shorter time frame (a yearish).

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Israel more than enough has the ability, we're not talking Gaza level, Gaza was just flattened. They cant flatten Lebanon, but they sure can knock out key infrastructure several times over and just send their economy back a few decades, rinse repeat and Lebanon would always be 'catching up'.

And after last night's debate we saw that Biden is NOT in control, he probably has little momentary clue on what's going on but his cabinet is, which is all staunchly pro-Israel, so US support is guaranteed.

Michaelsinodef said:

It is very likely that IDF will go into Lebanon.

If they don't, well, Hezbollah will continue attacking northern Israel with drones and missiles.

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Very high likelihood with the official post from Netanyahu and also Western countries are putting evacuation plans in place

Michaelsinodef said:

It is very likely that IDF will go into Lebanon.

If they don't, well, Hezbollah will continue attacking northern Israel with drones and missiles.

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We keep forgetting that Hezbollah is the one 'responding' to Israel. Israel very much wants this but they also need to give material and content to all the AIPAC vassals to work with. We've already seen this in play with the narrative in western media that Hezbollah is the one seeking conflict.

It's natural tendency for humans to sympathize with the little guy and the good guy, but unfortunately, cards are heavily stacked against Lebanon and their resistance forces.

phrozenflame said:

Israel more than enough has the ability, we're not talking Gaza level, Gaza was just flattened. They cant flatten Lebanon, but they sure can knock out key infrastructure several times over and just send their economy back a few decades, rinse repeat and Lebanon would always be 'catching up'.

And after last night's debate we saw that Biden is NOT in control, he probably has little momentary clue on what's going on but his cabinet is, which is all staunchly pro-Israel, so US support is guaranteed.

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Your original post very much sounded like Israel could repeat what they did to Gaza on Lebanon.

As for 'knock out key infrastructure to send Lebanon decades back'?

Eh, maybe a decade at most.

You also have to remember that Hezbollah (with 10k+ some even 100k+ estimates of Missiles and drones), can very much also do that Israel lol.

So no, unlikely that they would choose to do so.

sheogorath said:

Gotta hand it to Netanyahu, he would rather decimate Israel's global standing and diplomacy, drag the US with them, and weaken the country to the point it could eventually go the way of Rhodesia, all to avoid going to jail. I guess running away to another country with no extradition treaties is passe.

Can't go to jail if the country that wants to jail you doesn't exist anymore.

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Gotta hand it to the US for convincing the entire world that Israel is a real independent tiny state that controls America, and not an invented proxy like Ukraine and Taiwan are. Truly masters of their trade.

Michaelsinodef said:

Your original post very much sounded like Israel could repeat what they did to Gaza on Lebanon.

As for 'knock out key infrastructure to send Lebanon decades back'?

Eh, maybe a decade at most.

You also have to remember that Hezbollah (with 10k+ some even 100k+ estimates of Missiles and drones), can very much also do that Israel lol.

So no, unlikely that they would choose to do so.

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Except when dust settles US taxpayers will be paying for Israel's rebuild while Lebanon is left to lick wounds permanently, Israel is a necessary tool for West to avoid another Ottoman empire in the region they don't have a choice but to support it, However if Israel's performance is poor Saudi royal family will decide to make amends with Iran led shia axis and might even publicly kickstart nuclear program while accelerating GCC's move away from dollar that scenario would truly be a problem for Israel, With US unable to print money and export inflation Israel will become an unsustainable project for Transatlantic, It's interesting how many century defining geopolitical events are happening right now and have the potential to happen in near future, Xi couldn't be more right when he said changes not seen in 100 years are happening to Putin.

phrozenflame said:

Israel more than enough has the ability, we're not talking Gaza level, Gaza was just flattened. They cant flatten Lebanon, but they sure can knock out key infrastructure several times over and just send their economy back a few decades, rinse repeat and Lebanon would always be 'catching up'.

And after last night's debate we saw that Biden is NOT in control, he probably has little momentary clue on what's going on but his cabinet is, which is all staunchly pro-Israel, so US support is guaranteed.

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They still haven't achieved anywhere close to the defeat of Gaza's defenders...

Lebanon itself is garbage. A puppet led by a garbage shit eating collaborator king. Israel can probably destroy those guys. But Lebanon's real fighting force is Hezbollah, and that's who the people will rally with once the war gets going.

Civilian economic activity is irrelevant to Hezbollah. In return they will also set back Israeli economy by decades by knocking out their key infrastructure. Both die together, except Hezbollah was always just a military formation of Iran, it was made to take casualties and trade blows with Israel, while Israel was made as a colonial project of America, meaning it was expected to generate economic activity and provide military support.

Index said:

They still haven't achieved anywhere close to the defeat of Gaza's defenders...

Lebanon itself is garbage. A puppet led by a garbage shit eating collaborator king. Israel can probably destroy those guys. But Lebanon's real fighting force is Hezbollah, and that's who the people will rally with once the war gets going.

Civilian economic activity is irrelevant to Hezbollah. In return they will also set back Israeli economy by decades by knocking out their key infrastructure. Both die together, except Hezbollah was always just a military formation of Iran, it was made to take casualties and trade blows with Israel, while Israel was made as a colonial project of America, meaning it was expected to generate economic activity and provide military support.

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And also those Hezbollah have NO SAFE haven to go so they will fight to the end while the Israelis settlers hold dual passport so they have NO incentive to stay.

phrozenflame said:

Israel more than enough has the ability, we're not talking Gaza level, Gaza was just flattened. They cant flatten Lebanon, but they sure can knock out key infrastructure several times over and just send their economy back a few decades, rinse repeat and Lebanon would always be 'catching up'.

And after last night's debate we saw that Biden is NOT in control, he probably has little momentary clue on what's going on but his cabinet is, which is all staunchly pro-Israel, so US support is guaranteed.

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It won't hurt HBL that much because we know HBL's main source of armament and funding lies outside of Lebanon, and Lebanon's economy is in the low place already, hurting it further will only create more recruit for HBL.

Also, HBL has the abilities to respond in kind and strike Israel's infrastructure, a rich guy and a poor guy tries to burn each other's house, let's see who cries first

jiajia99 said:

Mostly likely, Israel will act first but if they do go first instead of Hezbollah, they are not going to get much worldwide sympathy when they get struck back and given how most of the region knows just how weak their air defenses are based on their performance in fending off the Iranian strike a few months ago, I wonder how many days the Israel air defense will last given the limited stockpiles of cash, weapons and manpower. The iron dome can only do so much and weapons have only advanced from the time that the Iron dome is the end all and be all in the region

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There was war games that stated with Hezbollah’s massive rocket and missile arsenal they could deplete Israel’s air defense in 72 hours. However this was before we seen how effective their atgms and drones are at directly attacking Iron Dome missile batteries. It’s safe to say in day one of an all out war Israel’s air defense will be depleted and destroyed. Once that happens You’ll see all of Israel be hit with rocket,missiles and drones from not only Southern Lebanon but the entire axis of resistance minus Iran. Once that happens people will flee because most Israelis are used to western living standards and aren’t used to be heavily bombarded. And then the economy will be in total free fall.