Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

kwaigonegin

Colonel
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Most Americans are sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. Palestine is not Ukraine. There is a significant portion of people in the U.S., Europe and Arab world that has long supported Palestine, two state solution, ending of occupation, etc….
That would be categorically incorrect. Most by definition means >%50, maybe even 75%+
I can guarantee you significantly less than 50% of Americans are siding with Palestinians.
Frankly, most Americans are indifferent to either side however a significant portion of the conservative voting bloc are most definitely on the side of Israel.
Politically it's obvious given that the Jewish lobbyists and donors are very significant in DC on both sides of the aisle.
 

Helius

Senior Member
Registered Member
There's at least 1700km between Yemen and Israel. Just what cruise missiles do the Houthis (i.e. Iran) have that can boast kind of range, let alone the drones?

If the Houthis did launch them they're not trying to hit Israel but quite likely SA, which then leads to the question of "Why now?" and this convenience of a USN DDG which just happened to have parked in the right place at the right time to intercept, what, all 11 of those targets, drones included which were shot down using the SM-2s of all things to boot?

Lest we forget what the Americans and the Saudis were talking to each other about before Hamas vs Israel, and what the Saudis had specifically asked of the US. I don't know about you, but my dinner is ready, looks like we're having fish tonight.
 

H2O

Junior Member
Registered Member
It amazing me that some here really believe ( or fantasize) that Egypt, Jordan, Syria(a war torn divided country), Iran will join the war to fight Israel becauseof Palestine. Seriously, I don't even know what to say to that anymore.

I see it more as hope. Hope that someone out there will stop the pain and bring about justice.
 

kwaigonegin

Colonel
A forensic research agency studied the images from the hospital and concluded it likely wasn't JDAM what hit the lot but an artillery round but the pattern and direction of the shrapnel shows it came from Israel.

I'm no blast forensic expert but this conclusion is the most plausible thus far for me.
As I'd mentioned in my post couple days ago, the blast pattern and damaged to the cars etc. is incongruent to an air dropped bomb like a jdam for ex.
 

Dragon of War

Junior Member
Registered Member
Israel doesn't have the capability to escalate against Russia. They are already getting whacked by fighting at 1/100 the intensity. They make laughable mistakes like parking tanks in the open in a nice flat lot surrounded by conscripts. Even Palestinians with 0.01% the capability of Russia are taking out Merkavas with drones. Israel has less artillery than what Ukraine loses in a month.

What are they gonna do?

Never underestimate the will of man, Hamas militants have tunnels going deep, splintering all over the country plus multiple other countries. Steel doors, DShk machine guns electrically wired to other sections of tunnel with a militant watching a cctv system operating the trigger remotely, food storage for years, ammunition stock piled and being manufactured in the tunnels, literally a whole city operating underground. All Israel is doing is creating more enemies for themselves by targeting the innocent. Apparently Hama's attack on Israel was inspired by a recent defense pact Israel was going to form with Saudi Arabia. Saudi has promptly pulled out for this for now so the attack must've worked in Hamas favor. If the deal were to go through it would be a huge lethal blow to Hamas as suddenly Israel would have a significant player in the Muslim world backing them.
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
A forensic research agency studied the images from the hospital and concluded it likely wasn't JDAM what hit the lot but an artillery round but the pattern and direction of the shrapnel shows it came from Israel.

This is super preliminary, high conjecture. They haven't given any suggestion what kind of weapon this might have been, other than some kind of "artillery shell". The crater appears small for a 155mm shell. Yet they say the weapon was likely more powerful than a Hellfire missile.

Without knowing the angle of the impact, it is difficult to judge the direction of the weapon. A high impact angle would produce a roughly oval shape crater with pronounced fragments pointing towards the "gun", therefore opposite of their conjecture and consistent with IDF claim. That's assuming a standard HE frag warhead. In this video is a simulation of a 122mm Grad rocket:

My impression is that their assessment appears more consistent with a low angle of impact:
Fig004.jpg


FA image analysis:
F85jXb0W0AATfnw



Disclaimer: I am no forensic expert. I base my opinion on a short amount of "research".

An example direction analysis based on a mortar crater:
 
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birdlikefood

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think the information we currently have is still a certain distance away from completely confirming the truth. Rough conclusions need to be made based on some reasonable assumptions and speculations on site. Detailed conclusions need to be combined with various types of ammunition, attack configuration modes, fuze triggering mechanisms, triggering times, types of charges, and failure modes of rockets. The structure, materials and layout of the building, the shape, strength, stiffness, flammability and layout of the surrounding appendages, the possible distribution of personnel, the structural damage and other damage results of the vehicle, the judgment of the impact point, the judgment of the crater morphology, shrapnel Judgment, the authenticity of the video image at the time of attack, the optical characteristics and timing in the video image, the orientation and angle of the light source, sound characteristics, etc.

Even if a system with defined boundary conditions is used to conduct numerical calculations of multi-physics coupling with large computing power, completely opposite results will occur due to different initial conditions. Therefore, we need to find some decisive factors and combine them to form a reasonable logical closed loop.

Attached are some photos of spontaneous combustion cars found on the Internet. As well as photos of cars at the hospital explosion site, the roof deformation in these photos is obviously different, which may provide us with more intelligence.

1697845400723.png1697845408061.png

Photos of self-igniting vehicles on the web (the tops are usually pretty flat)

1697845508729.png

Photos of vehicles at the explosion site (different deformation patterns at the top)

Of course, this is just one of the limited pieces of information.

In addition, just from one party’s inaccurate description of some information or even purposeful concealment cannot infer that the other party has attacked. It is best to just use it as a reference.
 

kwaigonegin

Colonel
Never underestimate the will of man, Hamas militants have tunnels going deep, splintering all over the country plus multiple other countries. Steel doors, DShk machine guns electrically wired to other sections of tunnel with a militant watching a cctv system operating the trigger remotely, food storage for years, ammunition stock piled and being manufactured in the tunnels, literally a whole city operating underground. All Israel is doing is creating more enemies for themselves by targeting the innocent. Apparently Hama's attack on Israel was inspired by a recent defense pact Israel was going to form with Saudi Arabia. Saudi has promptly pulled out for this for now so the attack must've worked in Hamas favor. If the deal were to go through it would be a huge lethal blow to Hamas as suddenly Israel would have a significant player in the Muslim world backing them.
Anti Israel sentiment is very strong in Gaza strip even before all these. Yes, civilian casualties will always energized recruitment and revenge but I honestly don't think it will necessarily create more. Hamas nvr had any issue from the standpoint of recruitment.
Also this operation is extremely sophisticated especially for a grp like hamas with limited resources and almost zero SIGINT capabilities. 99.99% of all electronic communications are tracked and deciphered in, out and within Gaza.
This operation was almost certainly planned for many many months, most likely years.
It would've predated any Saudi Israel pact etc.
 

azn_cyniq

Junior Member
Registered Member
That would be categorically incorrect. Most by definition means >%50, maybe even 75%+
I can guarantee you significantly less than 50% of Americans are siding with Palestinians.
Frankly, most Americans are indifferent to either side however a significant portion of the conservative voting bloc are most definitely on the side of Israel.
Politically it's obvious given that the Jewish lobbyists and donors are very significant in DC on both sides of the aisle.
What makes you say that? Granted, I go to a university where most students and faculty are left-leaning, but most of the people I know are openly pro-Palestine. I also find it hard to believe that most conservatives in the United States support Israel. I was in Texas a while back and I heard many white Texans say antisemitic things in public.
 
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