Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Helius said:
There's at least 1700km between Yemen and Israel. Just what cruise missiles do the Houthis (i.e. Iran) have that can boast kind of range, let alone the drones?

If the Houthis did launch them they're not trying to hit Israel but quite likely SA, which then leads to the question of "Why now?" and this convenience of a USN DDG which just happened to have parked in the right place at the right time to intercept, what, all 11 of those targets, drones included which were shot down using the SM-2s of all things to boot?
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The Iranians have no cruise missiles with that range. They have clones of the Soviet Kh-55. But since they ground launch them, unlike the Soviets which used the Tu-95 as a carrier platform, their range is severely curtailed. The range is basically cut in half.

It is way more likely at a) the Houtis fired the missile at some other target or even the ship itself b) the US Navy is just plain lying. It wouldn't be the first time either. Gulf of Tonkin anyone?
 
H

H2O

Junior Member
Registered Member
azn_cyniq said:
What makes you say that? Granted, I go to a university where most students and faculty are left-leaning, but most of the people I know are openly pro-Palestine. I also find it hard to believe that most conservatives in the United States support Israel. I was in Texas a while back and I heard many white Texans say antisemitic things in public.
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It depends on where he lives. If he's surrounded by Evangelicals then support for Israel would be very high.
 
kwaigonegin

kwaigonegin

Colonel
azn_cyniq said:
What makes you say that? Granted, I go to a university where most students and faculty are left-leaning, but most of the people I know are openly pro-Palestine. I also find it hard to believe that most conservatives in the United States support Israel. I was in Texas a while back and I heard many white Texans say antisemitic things in public.
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May I asked what college you go to? Regardless a typical college student in the US hardly represents the average American.
This is even truer if said college has a relatively high intl. students.
And yes, im 100% sure majority of conservatives do support Israel over Palestine and most certainly over hamas. Not sure what's so hard to believe.
As to antisemitism, yes unfortunately there are some Americans who are racist folks however those who are antisemitic are even more racists towards Muslims or just Arabs in general.
People like these will use such events to further cultivate their xenophobic and racists attitudes towards Middle Eastern eastern and Muslims even more.
 
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birdlikefood

birdlikefood

Junior Member
Registered Member
birdlikefood said:
我认为我们目前掌握的信息距离完全确认真相还有一定距离。粗略的结论需要根据现场的一些合理假设和推测做出。详细结论需要结合火箭弹的各类弹药、攻击配置方式、引信触发机制、触发时间、装药类型、失效模式等。建筑物的结构、材料和布局，周围附属物的形状、强度、刚度、可燃性和布局，人员的可能分布，车辆的结构损坏和其他损坏结果，弹着点的判断，火山口形态的判断，弹片判断，攻击时视频图像的真实性， 视频图像中的光学特性和时序、光源的方向和角度、声音特性等。

即使使用具有定义边界条件的系统进行具有大计算能力的多物理场耦合的数值计算，由于初始条件的不同，也会出现完全相反的结果。因此，我们需要找到一些决定性因素，并将它们结合起来，形成一个合理的逻辑闭环。
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Timing of some optical features

1697861816847.png

1697861844341.png

1697861850304.png

1697861856173.png1697861864243.png
 
H

H2O

Junior Member
Registered Member
birdlikefood said:
我认为我们目前掌握的信息距离完全确认真相还有一定距离。粗略的结论需要根据现场的一些合理假设和推测做出。详细结论需要结合火箭弹的各类弹药、攻击配置方式、引信触发机制、触发时间、装药类型、失效模式等。建筑物的结构、材料和布局，周围附属物的形状、强度、刚度、可燃性和布局，人员的可能分布，车辆的结构损坏和其他损坏结果，弹着点的判断，火山口形态的判断，弹片判断，攻击时视频图像的真实性， 视频图像中的光学特性和时序、光源的方向和角度、声音特性等。

即使使用具有定义边界条件的系统进行具有大计算能力的多物理场耦合的数值计算，由于初始条件的不同，也会出现完全相反的结果。因此，我们需要找到一些决定性因素，并将它们结合起来，形成一个合理的逻辑闭环。

Timing of some optical features
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You need to translate the Chinese part to English. I don't even know what those pictures are suppose to represent.
 
Helius

Helius

Senior Member
Registered Member
H2O said:
You need to translate the Chinese part to English. I don't even know what those pictures are suppose to represent.
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They're from one of the early vids that popped up debunking failed Hamas rockets hitting the hospital.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1714646537555337529

At the timestamp of when the hospital was hit Hamas did launch rockets but at opposite direction. Flares in the sky were captured at the same time presumably from an F-16 or F-15 with a flight path plotted moving away from the hospital and moments later explosions occurred, suggesting bombs were dropped by the overflying jet.
 
S

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
Zichan said:
The crater appears small for a 155mm shell. Yet they say the weapon was likely more powerful than a Hellfire missile
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In another tweet they compared it with the crater of a 152/155 round from Ukraine and looked similar to the one in the hospital.

Also crater size for an artillery round Will depend a lot on surface material and its hardness
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715422509875564802

Zichan said:
pronounced fragments pointing towards the "gun",
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It's the other way around for howitzer shells, given the usual "shallower" angle they tend to fire at. Pattern points away from the gun.
Zichan said:
An example direction analysis based on a mortar crater:
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Mortal craters can't be compared as they use far higher elevations than howitzers and tend to fall almost vertical
 
A

azn_cyniq

Junior Member
Registered Member
kwaigonegin said:
May I asked what college you go to? Regardless a typical college student in the US hardly represents the average American.
This is even truer if said college has a relatively high intl. students.
And yes, im 100% sure majority of conservatives do support Israel over Palestine and most certainly over hamas. Not sure what's so hard to believe.
As to antisemitism, yes unfortunately there are some Americans who are racist folks however those who are antisemitic are even more racists towards Muslims or just Arabs in general.
People like these will use such events to further cultivate their xenophobic and racists attitudes towards Middle Eastern eastern and Muslims even more.
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I'm not sure if I'm allowed to mention my university's name, since the last time I did that my post got deleted. I'll just say that I go to a university founded by Benjamin Franklin in the city of Philadelphia.

I agree that most conservatives support Israel over Palestine, but I would be surprised if most conservatives feel strongly about the issue. My impression of conservatives is that they're both antisemitic and Islamophobic, but slightly more Islamophobic.
 
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