ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

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US, Turkey on Opposing Sides at Volatile Syrian Front Line

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A Syrian Kurdish militia announced Tuesday it was pulling out of a key northern Syrian town, a move that could ease a serious rift between NATO allies United States and Turkey.

The two countries have been at odds over the future of north Syria since the U.S. began supporting a Kurdish militia known as the YPG to fight back against the rapidly expanding Islamic State group in 2014. Turkey considers the YPG a terror group tied to a Kurdish insurgency within its own borders.

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The YPG's announcement that it would pull its military advisers out of Manbij, a small but strategic town in central-north Syria, paved the way for a rebalancing of forces along the Syrian-Turkish frontier. The retreat could allow Turkey to control most of its border west of the Euphrates River, a longstanding demand it has tied to its national security.

The YPG — Kurdish initials for "People's Protection Units" — said in a statement that its advisers had completed their mission to train the local forces, the Manbij Military Council, to defend the multi-ethnic town.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Tuesday the Kurdish fighters leaving Manbij would have to give up their weapons as part of a deal reached with the United States. There was no immediate comment from the YPG on whether they would agree.

Turkey has been pushing the U.S. to cast the YPG out of Manbij since the

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from the Islamic State group in 2016. After Turkey seized another town Afrin from the YPG, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to expand operations to Manbij, but U.S. troops stationed in Manbij have served as a deterrent.

Since 2016, Turkish and Turkish-backed Syrian forces and U.S.-backed Kurdish and other Syrian forces have been exchanging gunfire at a tense front around Manbij.

Meanwhile, tensions erupted elsewhere, including when Turkey bombed positions held by U.S.-backed fighters in other parts of the autonomous Kurdish area in 2017.

The YPG retreat will ease the standoff between the YPG and Turkish-backed Syrian fighters, which has become a major sore point between NATO allies and a distraction for the U.S.-led coalition seeking to defeat IS in Syria.

On Monday, the U.S. and Turkey issued a joint statement saying they had "endorsed a roadmap" that aims to "ensure the security and stability of Manbij," in a sign that the Trump and Erdogan administrations were seeking common ground over their visions for north Syria.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Cavusoglu also said that Turkish and U.S. officials would begin working on a plan for Manbij within the next 10 days and the Syrian Kurdish militia's withdrawal would be complete within six months.

A Turkish official says the withdrawal will be according to a U.S. plan, to be completed next week, and then Turkey will review the withdrawal before a new council to administer the town is set up. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to reporters.

The State Department did not confirm Cavusoglu's remarks.

The U.S. is estimated to keep 2,000 forces stationed in north Syria, and it operates airstrips and outposts in the Kurdish-administered territory that stretches across Syria's north and east of the Euphrates River. Manbij lies west of the river.

It was not immediately clear what will happen to the U.S.-supported Manbij Military Council that currently administers the town.

Shervan Darwish, a member of the council, said residents were "anxious" about the news. He estimated one million people live in Manbij and the surrounding countryside, many of them displaced from fighting elsewhere in the country.

What seems certain is that Manbij will remain beyond the reach of Syrian President Bashar Assad's government in Damascus, which has been forced to surrender much of its authority in northern Syria to Turkey and the U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish militia as it fights rebels elsewhere.

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Jura said:

Mar 31, 2018
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US, Turkey Deal to See Kurdish Militia Leave Key Syria Town

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The Syrian Kurds in northern Syria seem to be more willing to negotiate with Damascus after President Bashar al-Assad's remarks of opening door for negotiations.

The willingness also came after the United States reached a deal with Turkey about jointly administering the Manbij city, which is under the control of Kurdish-allied local forces in the northern countryside of Aleppo province in northern Syria.

The Manbij Military Council (MMC), a local force partner with the U.S.-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), has rejected the U.S.-Turkish deal for settling the situation in Manbij, as Turkey longed to enter the area along with its allied Syrian rebels to oust the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), which is allied with the Turkish-banned Kurdish Workers Party (PKK).

Dislodging the YPG and allied forces from Manbij was the next Turkish plan to eliminate the Kurdish threat in northern Syria near the Turkish border after the Turkish troops and Syrian rebels overran the predominantly-Kurdish district of Afrin in March.

Both Manbij and Afrin are located on the Syrian-Turkish border, but unlike Afrin, U.S. forces are present in Manbij, which apparently pushed Washington and Ankara to reach the agreement.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights recently said that U.S.-Turkish agreement includes the withdrawal of the YPG from Manbij to the eastern bank of the Euphrates River, where the SDF and the United States have a heavy presence. It added that the Manbij Military Council will remain in the Manbij.

A watchdog group said that the U.S. and Turkish forces will deploy on the frontline between Manbij and its countryside, where Turkish-backed Syrian rebels are in position.

However, the MMC was cited by the pro-government al-Watan newspaper on Thursday as saying that it will not accept Turkish military presence in Manbij, and the YPG military advisors will leave Manbij in the coming days.

The Syrian Kurds in northern Syria wanted to negotiate with Damascus without preconditions, said the newspaper.

Mays Kreidi, spokeswoman of the National Democratic Front, Syrian opposition group, said the atmosphere is positive in the predominantly Kurdish areas in northern Syria about the negotiation with Damascus, citing Kurdish figures.

Kreidi said that a delegation of her group met with the Elham Ahmad, a co-chairman of the Syrian Democratic Council, which is the political wing of the SDF, in the northern city of Qamishli. She added that the council agreed to send a delegation to negotiate with Damascus without preconditions.

Assad has stressed Syrian army's determination to capture all Syria areas and said that the United States must withdraw from Syria.

It is worth noting that the SDF has spearheaded the war on the Islamic State (IS) in the northern province of Raqqa, which was the de facto capital of the terror-designated group.

Riad Darar, another co-chairman of the Syrian Democratic Council, stressed that the negotiation with the Syrian state is the best way to reach results that serve Syria, according to the al-Watan newspaper.

He said that the SDF has prepared itself to fight IS, and the SDF is ready to be a part of the Syrian army after a settlement, adding that the SDF alliance with the foreign forces was to get rid of terrorism.

Observers believe that the positive interaction comes apparently after Kurdish political groups in predominantly-Kurdish areas in northern Syria sensed the risk of keeping on reliance on the United States.

Syria's Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem said that "neither Turkey nor the United States has the right to negotiate regarding the Syrian cities," stressing that the Syrian forces will liberate every inch of the Syrian territory.

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U.S.

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, attached to

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forces in Syria, often found themselves in direct-fire gunfights with

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fighters earlier this year, according to the commander of the Special-Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force-Crisis Response for Central Command.

The unit, designed with capability to launch combat forces within six hours anywhere in the CENTCOM theater, sent two rifle companies to support Special Operations Command units operating in Northern Syria between January and April, Marine Col. Christopher Gideons, commander of the task force, said Friday at the Potomac Institute.

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"When Marines deploy, they want to get involved," he said. "When there is a gunfight out there ... they want to find that opportunity to feel like they are making a meaningful contribution. We did exactly that."

Gideons initially

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a platoon-size element that linked up with

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Operational Detachment Alpha (ODA) teams.

"They were integrated with [special operations forces], absolutely integrated. We were providing Marine infantry, we were providing indirect fires, and we were providing anti-tank fires," he said.

The SOF elements would push forward, advising Syrian Democratic Forces, "the ones that were primarily engaged in the direct firefights with ISIS," Gideons said.

"You would have Marines integrated with those ODAs ... providing fires down at that lower tactical level," he said.

During its 243-day

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, the unit had to conduct several "rapid planning processes" to deploy forces on short notice, he added.

Over time, more support was needed in Syria, so Gideons deployed more Marines to grow the platoon-size element to "two infantry [companies minus]" that were located in two separate locations in Northern Syria.

"We anticipated that that requirement would grow with a need for

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capabilities, and it did," he said.

Soon the fighting intensified.

"On a number of different occasions, there would be various engagements, some direct, some indirect," Gideons said. "As the SDF would close in sometimes, they would outstretch particularly what our mortar fires could provide.

"We would displace out of our small [forward operating bases] we were operating out of, move closer in behind the SDF and then provide fires -- a lot of times mortar fire ... and of course as you were getting into an engagement, there is the potential for stuff to come back at you," he said.

Marines operated in both mounted and dismounted roles.

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coming out of Bahrain provided close-air support when needed, Gideons said.

Despite the action Marines saw, there were no casualties.

"I am very happy and proud to say that we brought everybody home," Gideons said.

He described the deployment as "dynamic."

"What was unique on our watch is over our 243 days in theater ... from our perspective, we were more distributed than any other SPMAGTF up until that point," he said. "We had Marines operating in 10 different countries and 24 separate locations. I had Marines from Egypt to Afghanistan.

"I didn't own missions in Iraq or Syria, but I had capabilities that could augment and support that mission's successful accomplishment."

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In recent weeks coalition forces have more than tripled the number of

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they made against ISIS elements in Iraq and Syria. But more ground

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in pockets of those countries are needed to

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out the remaining fighters, officials said.

Since the May 1 start of “Operation Roundup,” Syrian Democratic Forces resumed offensive combat operations in the Middle Euphrates River Valley, according to the Pentagon.

In May the coalition conducted 225 strikes with 280 engagements. That was triple the number of strikes that took place in March, which was 74. And higher than the 183 strikes in April.

Defense Secretary James Mattis told reporters this week that “it’s still a fight.” Partner forces kicked off an attack in one of the “last enclaves” of ISIS.

That fighting continues even after the Iraqi city of Mosul was retaken last July and Raqqa, Syria was retaken late last year.

Though airstrikes have increased, one expert says that might not be the best measure for sweeping out the terrorist organization from the region.

“The strikes alone won’t eliminate residual ISIS presence,” said Jennifer Cafarella, director of intelligence planning for the Institute for the Study of War.

She said the ground advance is key, in part because ISIS fighters have been using tunnels and other subterranean structures to blunt the effectiveness of airstrikes.

A June 1 engagement that involved four strikes in Syria near Abu Kamal destroyed an ISIS-held building and tunnel. Shortly afterward a June 9 strike by coalition forces near Mosul, Iraq destroyed five such tunnels, according to the release.

Leaders are talking more about the ground offensive, as Mattis mentioned to media.

“At some point, we will continue to move against the other enclaves down in, what we call the MERV or the Middle Euphrates River Valley,” Mattis said.

Another factor complicating the situation, specifically in Syria, has been that the factions supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime are present along the Iraq-Syria border, Cafarella said.

Officials included commentary on battlefield actions by some ISIS fighters and leaders.

“Daesh (ISIS) morale is sinking on the frontlines as privileged Daesh leaders increasingly abandon their own fighters on the battlefield, taking resources with them as they flee,” according to the release.

But there might be more to understand with some of those actions and it may be harder to measure the strength of the remaining terrorist forces in the area.

“ISIS chose to cede terrain to opposing forces in strongholds like Hawija, (Iraq) in order to preserve capabilities while buying time and space to regroup,” Cafarella said. “The scale of those residual capabilities is difficult to tell, but they’re there.”

Reports indicate that ISIS forces have survived numerous attempted clearings in areas near Kirkuk, Iraq, she said. Similar intelligence shows warning signs similar to the rise of the organization beginning in 2011 of local population extortion and fake security checkpoints.

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Jura said:

Mar 31, 2018
and
US, Turkey Deal to See Kurdish Militia Leave Key Syria Town

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The Turkey-U.S. deal on resolving the dispute on the Syrian city of Manbij could lead to further territorial division in Syria, analysts said.

Based on the deal concluded earlier this month, Turkish troops started Monday patrols on the outskirts of the previously Kurdish militia-controlled Manbij in northern Syria.

"Manbij is a model. The Manbij model is also important for Syria's future," Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Tuesday.

"The Manbij area will be handed over to its real owners after being cleared (of terrorists)," he added.

Turkey's top diplomat's remarks indicated that Manbij would later be handed over to local people rather than the Syrian government which Ankara sees as illegitimate.

Hasan Koni, a professor of international law at Istanbul Kultur University, told Xinhua that the Turkey-U.S. move in Manbij would prepare the ground for the creation of an area to be controlled by moderate Sunni groups, leading to further territorial division within the war-torn Syria.

Turkey and the U.S., which has some troops stationed in the Kurdish-held areas, would act as patrons of Sunni Manbij under the U.S. leadership, he remarked.

The U.S. recently made clear it would not allow the Syrian army to recapture areas previously under Kurdish control.

Ankara argues Manbij is an Arab town and the Kurdish militia, the People's Protection Units (YPG) which Ankara sees as a terror group, must leave it.

The U.S. will, under the deal, have the YPG leave Manbij after disarming it, and a local council, which will be composed of mainly Arabs, will be established.

Cavusoglu said Turkish and U.S. troops would jointly maintain security in the Manbij area after YPG's departure.

Turkey, highly disturbed about Washington's military support to the Kurdish militia, has declared any YPG presence on the western bank of the Euphrates as a red line for its national security.

The Turkish army currently controls over 4,000 square km of territory in northwestern Syria along its border.

The military took control of the area, which borders Manbij in the north and west, in two separate major military offensives against the YPG and the Islamic State (IS) in 2016 and 2017.

Top Turkish officials said in the past that the areas seized from the YPG and IS would be handed over to local people rather than the Syrian government, as Ankara says Syrian President Bashar al-Assad should have no place in the future of Syria.

Faruk Logoglu, a former senior Turkish diplomat, said Ankara's vision for Syria, or the Manbij model, would increase the risk of disintegration of its war-torn neighbor.

Koni also said Turkey's attitude simply serves to boost the risk of Syria's disintegration.

He suspects that the Manbij deal between Ankara and Washington is part of the efforts to drive Iranian forces out of Syria due to Israeli concerns for security.

Israel, known to be highly disturbed about Iranian presence in Syria, has several times launched airstrikes against allegedly Iran-linked targets there during the past year.

Both Damascus and Tehran, another staunch Damascus ally, deny the presence of any Iranian troops or military bases in Syria, saying only some Iranian military advisors are on the ground.

The Turkish government has been much criticized at home for its support until mid-2016 for the rebels fighting to topple the Syrian regime.

There have been reports that Ankara seeks to create a Sunni zone under its sway near its border with Syria.

With Ankara's backing, Syria's Sunni rebel groups, which came together under the name of the Free Syrian Army, have fought alongside the Turkish troops to oust the YPG forces from the areas, including Afrin, near the Turkish border.

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The Syrian army entered the Daraa al-Balad area in the capital city of Daraa province Thursday, capturing the entire city of Daraa, according to state news agency SANA.

The Syrian forces entered the Daraa al-Balad area in the southern part of the capital city of Daraa province, raising the Syrian flag in the main square, said the report.

This comes a day after the rebels in that area agreed to surrender their weapons to the Syrian army.

The city of Daraa constitutes of Daraa al-Balad and Daraa al-Mahata area, the first has fallen under the rebels' control since the beginning of the seven-year war while the second remained under control of the government.

A day earlier, the rebels in the Daraa al-Balad agreed to surrender their medium and heavy weapons to the army and either embark on a reconciliation process to remain in Daraa or evacuate toward rebel-held areas in northern Syria.

Daraa al-Balad area is in the southern part of the capital city of Daraa, from which the Syrian war started.

The deal in Daraa al-Balad is the latest in a string of deals struck between the Russian side, which is representing the government, and various rebel groups in Daraa during the Syrian military campaign that has been ongoing in Daraa since June 19.

The deal on Wednesday comes a day after rebels in four towns in the northwestern countryside of Daraa accepted a similar deal.

Meanwhile, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the army has captured 84 percent of the Daraa province, including the entire eastern countryside of Daraa, either by force or through reconciliations with the rebels.

The army has also captured the entire borderline with Jordan during the operation.

With the recent deals, the army will have to deal with the rebels in a few towns in the western countryside of Daraa near the border with the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Those areas are Nawa, al-Harah, Inkhil, Jasim, and Grgis, which are under the rebels' control in addition to the Tasil area, which is controlled by IS-allied militants.

Daraa has a symbolic significance as it was the birthplace of the Syrian war that erupted in 2011. Securing it will be a big victory for the Syrian army both symbolically and militarily as the rebels have used the Jordanian border to bring in arms and fighters throughout the war.

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