All this direct brinksmanship by the main foreign backers of the competing factions can get real ugly real quick even if it doesn't spiral out of control.
ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
All this direct brinksmanship by the main foreign backers of the competing factions can get real ugly real quick even if it doesn't spiral out of control.
There is an alternative which is what is actually happening, Syria's de facto partition. At least for now unless or until it spirals into a wider war.
The situation is evolving quickly; it wasn't long ago that the SAA and their Russian advisors had to go into SDF areas to prevent Turkish backed militias from attacking them. Now the tension between the government and the SDF has considerably risen, as they both prepare for a post-ISIS future.
My POV is that the Euphrates will provide a natural de-facto border between these 2 groups. Any serious attempts by the Kurdish forces to establish themselves west of this river will result in clashes, esp around the area of De-Ezzor and south of Raqqa.
My POV is that the Euphrates will provide a natural de-facto border between these 2 groups. Any serious attempts by the Kurdish forces to establish themselves west of this river will result in clashes, esp around the area of De-Ezzor and south of Raqqa.
Partition (de facto or de jure) is about Kurds, not about the green and black factions. Kurds was not the root cause of the current fighting. They did not rise against the state, nor did they want to risk their lives for the state to fight the insurgents. Kurds was not the problem, neither is the problem now, it may become a new problem if they choose to secede. Then it would become a real sectarian war involving not only Syrian state but also Turkey (on Syrian side) and Iraqi state (on Syrian side) and Iraqi Kurds on opposing side.
When I replied to Equation's post #5358, I believes that he meant the current fights between SAA or SDF on one side and the green and blacks on the other side.
So partition along the line between Syrian Arab (both Alaweit and Sunni) and Kurds (SDF) is not an alternative that we were talking about. It may however become a valid issue if (after the defeat of green and black) SDF decides to go for secession instead of remaining within Syria with greater autonomy, then we can revisit this subject. But IMO I would wish the Kurds think twice, the formal Yugoslavia was a bloody bad example, the current Ukrainian crisis is another although less bloody but surely crippling Ukraine to a failed state, it simply does not worth the lives of ordinary Kurds and Arabs who only want to have a life.
a / CCTV (China Central TV) program "International matters" June 20th.
Among many things there is one thing related to Syria at 5:15
All remember this Syrian boy? Omran Daqneesh
At the time western media has portrayed him being the victim of Syrian government air raid and the "white helmet" being the "brave saviors" of people in Aleppo.
In this CCTV program, Chinese journalist interviewed his father (Mohamed Kheir Daqneesh) and him in Aleppo recently. Here is a Huanqiu article referring the interview with Chinese transcription.
The tone of "telegraph" is predictable, but it does not change the facts:
An equally important thing is that a "documentary" about white helmet was awarded by Oscar 2017. That tells what Oscar award and its financiers are, and all the other similar sorts of awards in the name of "peace".
The more these lairs lie, the less people there is to believe them. It is the beginning of the downfall of the "soft-power".
Among many things there is one thing related to Syria at 5:15
All remember this Syrian boy? Omran Daqneesh
At the time western media has portrayed him being the victim of Syrian government air raid and the "white helmet" being the "brave saviors" of people in Aleppo.
In this CCTV program, Chinese journalist interviewed his father (Mohamed Kheir Daqneesh) and him in Aleppo recently. Here is a Huanqiu article referring the interview with Chinese transcription.
- They were inside the house when an explosion happened. They did not hear airplane. They did not know who caused that explosion, nor what was it.
- Omran was slightly cut but nothing serious. The blood on his forehead was his father's who carried him out of the house.
- The "white helmets" GRABBED Omran from his father and put him in the ambulance, NOT rescuing him from the house.
- Omran did not cry NOT because of shock of the explosion, BUT because of being taken away from his father and confused.
- The family was offered by many groups and governments including US for settlement in other countries and CASH (10,000 USD by an unnamed gulf state) in return to condemn Syrian government for that "bombing". But the family REFUSED and remained in Aleppo.
- The family was then harassed by the rebels for non-compliance. Harassments include announcing the (faked) deaths of a daughter and Omran for 5 times.
- Today the father works in a factory in Aleppo.
The tone of "telegraph" is predictable, but it does not change the facts:
- The family refused to "evacuate" with the rebels from Aleppo.
- The family refused the bribe and remained loyal to Syria, unlike the "twitter" girl who moved to Turkey. BTW the girl had never had a scratch nor her family, "amazing".
- The family moved to the Government controlled Aleppo once they had a chance.
- All these choices were made when they were "protected" and "represented" by the "rebels" in Aleppo.
An equally important thing is that a "documentary" about white helmet was awarded by Oscar 2017. That tells what Oscar award and its financiers are, and all the other similar sorts of awards in the name of "peace".
The more these lairs lie, the less people there is to believe them. It is the beginning of the downfall of the "soft-power".
Equation
Lieutenant General
So Israel are cooperating with some terrorist groups (just because they are fighting against Assad Syrian Army) and yet that is some how seems okay by the western media? I'm just pointing out the obvious here.
Regarding the alleged chemical attack on Khan Sheikhoun;
Looks like a quickly transcribed conversation between a SF guy and his handler.
Up to you readers to believe it or not, but Hersh has a long track record of doing good work:
Intelligence officials doubted the alleged Sarin gas attack at Khan Sheikhoun. WELT AM SONNTAG presents a chat protocol of a security advisor and an active American soldier on duty at a key base in the region.
This conversation was provided to Seymour Hersh. It is betweeen a security adviser and an active US American soldier on duty on a key operational base about the events in Khan Sheikhoun. We have made abbreviations: American soldier (AS) and Security Advisor (SA). WELT AM SONNTAG is aware of the location of the deployment. For security reasons, certain details of military operations have been omitted.
April 6, 2017
American Soldier: We got a fuckin‘ problem
Security-Adviser: What happened? Is it the Trump ignoring the Intel and going to try to hit the Syrians? And that we’re pissing on the Russians?
AS: This is bad...Things are spooling up.
SA: You may not have seen trumps press conference yesterday. He's bought into the media story without asking to see the Intel. We are likely to get our asses kicked by the Russians. Fucking dangerous. Where are the godamn adults? The failure of the chain of command to tell the President the truth, whether he wants to hear it or not, will go down in history as one of our worst moments.
AS: I don't know. None of this makes any sense. We KNOW that there was no chemical attack. The Syrians struck a weapons cache (a legitimate military target) and there was collateral damage. That's it. They did not conduct any sort of a chemical attack. [emphasis mine]
AS: And now we’re shoving a shit load of TLAMs (tomahawks) up their ass.
SA: There has been a hidden agenda all along. This is about trying to ultimately go after Iran. What the people around Trump do not understand is that the Russians are not a paper tiger and that they have more robust military capability than we do.
AS: I don't know what the Russians are going to do. They might hang back and let the Syrians defend their own borders, or they might provide some sort of tepid support, or they might blow us the fuck out of the airspace and back into Iraq. I honestly don't know what to expect right now. I feel like anything is possible. The russian air defense system is capable of taking out our TLAMs. this is a big fucking deal...we are still all systems go...
SA: You are so right. Russia is not going to take this lying down
SA: Who is pushing this? Is it coming from Votel (General Joseph L. Votel, Commander of United States Central Command, editor‘s note) ?
AS: I don't know. It's from someone big though. . . . This is a big fucking deal.
AS: It has to be POTUS.
AS: They [the russians] are weighing their options. Indications are they are going to be passive supporters of syria and not engage their systems unless their own assets are threatened..in other words, the sky is fucking blue.'
April 7, 2017
SA: What are the Russians doing or saying Am I correct that we did little real damage to Russia or Syria?
AS: We didn't hit a damn thing, thankfully. They retrograded all their aircraft and personnel. We basically gave them a very expensive fireworks display.
AS: They knew where ships were and watched the entire strike from launch to end game.
AS: The Russians are furious. Claiming we have the real Intel and know the truth about the weapons depot strike.
AS: They are correct.
AS: I guess it really didn't matter whether we elected Clinton or Trump. Fuck.
AS: No one is talking about the entire reason we're in Iraq and Syria in the first place. That mission is fucked now.
SA: Are any of your colleagues pissed or is everyone going along with it and saying this is OK
AS: It's a mad house. . . .Hell we even told the Russians an hour before impact
SA: But they clearly knew it was coming
AS: Oh of course
AS: Now Fox is saying we chose to hit the Syrian airfield because it is where the chemical attacks were launched from. Wow. Can't make this shit up.
SA: They are. I mean, making it up
AS: It's so fuckin evil
SA: Amen!!!
April 8, 2017
AS: Russians are being extremely reasonable. Despite what the news is reporting they are still trying to deconflict and coordinate the air campaign.
SA: I don't think the russia yet understands how crazy Trump is over this. And i don't think we appreciate how much damage the Russians can do to us.
AS: They're showing amazing restraint and been unbelievably calm. They seem mostly interested in de-escalating everything. They don't want to lose our support in the help with destroying Isis.
SA: But I get the get the feeling are simply trying this approach for as long as they feel it might work. If we keep pushing this current aggressive stance they're going to hit back.'
Looks like a quickly transcribed conversation between a SF guy and his handler.
Up to you readers to believe it or not, but Hersh has a long track record of doing good work:
Intelligence officials doubted the alleged Sarin gas attack at Khan Sheikhoun. WELT AM SONNTAG presents a chat protocol of a security advisor and an active American soldier on duty at a key base in the region.
This conversation was provided to Seymour Hersh. It is betweeen a security adviser and an active US American soldier on duty on a key operational base about the events in Khan Sheikhoun. We have made abbreviations: American soldier (AS) and Security Advisor (SA). WELT AM SONNTAG is aware of the location of the deployment. For security reasons, certain details of military operations have been omitted.
April 6, 2017
American Soldier: We got a fuckin‘ problem
Security-Adviser: What happened? Is it the Trump ignoring the Intel and going to try to hit the Syrians? And that we’re pissing on the Russians?
AS: This is bad...Things are spooling up.
SA: You may not have seen trumps press conference yesterday. He's bought into the media story without asking to see the Intel. We are likely to get our asses kicked by the Russians. Fucking dangerous. Where are the godamn adults? The failure of the chain of command to tell the President the truth, whether he wants to hear it or not, will go down in history as one of our worst moments.
AS: I don't know. None of this makes any sense. We KNOW that there was no chemical attack. The Syrians struck a weapons cache (a legitimate military target) and there was collateral damage. That's it. They did not conduct any sort of a chemical attack. [emphasis mine]
AS: And now we’re shoving a shit load of TLAMs (tomahawks) up their ass.
SA: There has been a hidden agenda all along. This is about trying to ultimately go after Iran. What the people around Trump do not understand is that the Russians are not a paper tiger and that they have more robust military capability than we do.
AS: I don't know what the Russians are going to do. They might hang back and let the Syrians defend their own borders, or they might provide some sort of tepid support, or they might blow us the fuck out of the airspace and back into Iraq. I honestly don't know what to expect right now. I feel like anything is possible. The russian air defense system is capable of taking out our TLAMs. this is a big fucking deal...we are still all systems go...
SA: You are so right. Russia is not going to take this lying down
SA: Who is pushing this? Is it coming from Votel (General Joseph L. Votel, Commander of United States Central Command, editor‘s note) ?
AS: I don't know. It's from someone big though. . . . This is a big fucking deal.
AS: It has to be POTUS.
AS: They [the russians] are weighing their options. Indications are they are going to be passive supporters of syria and not engage their systems unless their own assets are threatened..in other words, the sky is fucking blue.'
April 7, 2017
SA: What are the Russians doing or saying Am I correct that we did little real damage to Russia or Syria?
AS: We didn't hit a damn thing, thankfully. They retrograded all their aircraft and personnel. We basically gave them a very expensive fireworks display.
AS: They knew where ships were and watched the entire strike from launch to end game.
AS: The Russians are furious. Claiming we have the real Intel and know the truth about the weapons depot strike.
AS: They are correct.
AS: I guess it really didn't matter whether we elected Clinton or Trump. Fuck.
AS: No one is talking about the entire reason we're in Iraq and Syria in the first place. That mission is fucked now.
SA: Are any of your colleagues pissed or is everyone going along with it and saying this is OK
AS: It's a mad house. . . .Hell we even told the Russians an hour before impact
SA: But they clearly knew it was coming
AS: Oh of course
AS: Now Fox is saying we chose to hit the Syrian airfield because it is where the chemical attacks were launched from. Wow. Can't make this shit up.
SA: They are. I mean, making it up
AS: It's so fuckin evil
SA: Amen!!!
April 8, 2017
AS: Russians are being extremely reasonable. Despite what the news is reporting they are still trying to deconflict and coordinate the air campaign.
SA: I don't think the russia yet understands how crazy Trump is over this. And i don't think we appreciate how much damage the Russians can do to us.
AS: They're showing amazing restraint and been unbelievably calm. They seem mostly interested in de-escalating everything. They don't want to lose our support in the help with destroying Isis.
SA: But I get the get the feeling are simply trying this approach for as long as they feel it might work. If we keep pushing this current aggressive stance they're going to hit back.'