ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

let me see ... May 20, 2017
Today at 4:00 PM
Thursday at 8:54 PM
...
U.S. strikes Syria militia threatening U.S.-backed forces: officials
Thu May 18, 2017 | 2:38pm EDT
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now that's the most recent:
US Pitches Plan to Russia to Avoid Armed Conflict in Syria
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and in the meantime Mr. Assad/Iran took it towards
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!
l0ZX6.jpg

DASB2J-XcAAfu8l.jpg

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both the above map and the picture inside the related blog by "Cassad"
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as right now
A showdown is looming between the US, Syria and Iran at Tanf
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U.S. aircraft over the weekend dropped a series of leaflets around the Tanf border crossing between Syria and Iraq, warning pro-Syrian regime militia to avoid the deconfliction zone around a small base there.

Officials at the Pentagon have acknowledged that pro-regime forces are active in the area and were conducting armed patrols in the vicinity of Tanf.

U.S. and British Special Forces use the facility to train Syrian opposition forces for the fight against ISIS, according to U.S. Central Command officials. The deconfliction zone encompasses a 55-kilometer radius around the base.

“These patrols and the continued armed and hostile presence of pro-regime forces inside the deconfliction zone are unacceptable and threatening to coalition forces,” said a CENTCOM official.

The massing of hundreds of pro-regime forces outside of Tanf was described as dangerous and a “direct threat” to coalition forces, by CENTCOM officials. It also sets up a potential showdown between the U.S. and forces aligned with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

With the pending liberation of the Syrian city of Raqqa by U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, elements of the Syrian regime and proxies allied to Iran have been jockeying for control.

Without any agreement between parties to the conflict in Syria on what to do with formerly held ISIS territory, confrontation becomes a likely avenue, said Fabrice Balanche, a leading French expert on Syria and a visiting fellow at The Washington institute for Near East Policy.

“The regime and its allies are racing to establish an east-west 'Shiite axis' from Iran to Lebanon, and the United States [is] seemingly looking to cement a north-south 'Sunni axis' from the Gulf states and Jordan to Turkey,” Balanche said.

The small group of U.S. and British Special Forces use the base in southern Syria, less than 10 miles from Jordan's border with Iraq and Syria, to train two vetted Syrian opposition groups, the Maghawir al-Thawra and Shohada al-Quartayn, according to officials in Baghdad.

Pentagon officials contend the primary mission of these groups is to take the fight to ISIS, although both groups have been associated with anti-regime efforts in the past, according to Jennifer Cafarella, a leading expert on the Syrian civil war at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. These groups are remnants of the New Syrian Army, a band of former Syrian army defectors, and the Free Syrian Army, a formerly CIA backed anti-Assad force.

Ultimately, Syria is worried about the permanent presence of a U.S.-backed Syrian opposition group blocking a strategic route for the regime.

Over the weekend, members of the Katib Imam Ali, an Iraqi Shiite militia associated with Iran, positioned a large number of forces to include tanks and technicals — modified pickup trucks with mounted heavy machine guns — just outside the 55-kilometer zone.

Officials in Baghdad say they will use force to defend the installation where U.S. forces are operating.

“Coalition forces are prepared to defend themselves if pro-regime forces refuse to vacate the deconfliction zone,” said a CENTCOM spokesperson.

On May 18, pro-regime militias tested CENTCOM’s resolve, resulting in U.S. aircraft destroying a pro-regime tank and bulldozer after a convoy approaching Tanf refused to stop, according to Capt. Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesperson. The incident was followed up by a show of force by coalition jets that weekend, as some elements of the pro-regime convoy refused to leave the deconfliction zone.

The May 18 incident showcased that these militias may be attempting to build outposts just outside the deconfliction zone.

“We struck what appeared to be a firebase they were constructing, they had a bulldozer and a front-end loader used to create berms,” Davis said, describing the U.S. coalition strike against pro-regime militias on May 18.

The Iranian-backed militias don’t have the military capability to go toe-to-toe with U.S. forces at Tanf, however, the goal for Assad and his Iranian proxies may be to simply harass the facility and surround it, making the base useless for U.S. goals.

“The smart solution for Assad allies would be to encircle Tanf, the rebels would be unable to move outside Tanf and Tanf becomes useless, and dangerously useless for American forces,” Balanche told Military Times.

Iran has stepped up its efforts to open a land corridor through Iraq bridging its ally in Damascus while also connecting Iran to its proxy militant group, Hezbollah, in Lebanon.

On Monday, the Popular Mobilization Forces, an Iraqi Shia militia aligned with Iran, spearheaded its forces west though Kurdish-controlled Sinjar in Iraq — this operation has opened a direct link in northern Iraq to Kurdish controlled areas in northern Syria.

Movements by pro-regime and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria have sent a message to Washington that Iran and Syria are serious about opening these corridors, and they view the Tanf crossing as vital and strategic to their efforts.

How Washington will respond if Tanf is entirely encircled is unknown, but the area is "a potential powder keg," Cafarella said. "Mostly because I don't actually think we are committed to denying eastern Syria to Russia and Iran."
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TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Video I picked up from Firearms blog. is segment from Anna News.
Presenter is Former Russian military, Always remember This is Propaganda. Every report on all sides must be taken with a Grain of salt. how much I leave to you.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Video I picked up from Firearms blog. is segment from Anna News.
Presenter is Former Russian military, Always remember This is Propaganda. Every report on all sides must be taken with a Grain of salt. how much I leave to you.
I haven't seen the whole video yet. But that former Russian military seems to have high hopes that the city Aleppo can be rebuilt, IF the video is true.
 
Wednesday at 6:27 AM
let me see ... May 20, 2017

as right now
A showdown is looming between the US, Syria and Iran at Tanf
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MH2Xz.jpg
and US Ups ‘Combat Power’ at Syrian Base as Pro-Regime Forces Close In
1 Jun 2017
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The United States has bolstered its firepower at a small training base in southern Syria in recent days as a group of Iran-supported militiamen backing the Syrian government are encamped nearby and refuse to move, a military spokesman for the anti-Islamic State coalition said Thursday.

Despite repeated warnings, the small group of fighters about 17 miles northwest of the Tanf base have not moved outside the established non-conflict zone, which extends about 35 miles around the outpost near the Jordanian border, said
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Col. Ryan Dillon, spokesman for the Operation Inherent Resolve coalition. The U.S.-led coalition trains Syrian rebels to fight ISIS at the base.

"We have increased our combat power in that area," Dillon told reporters at the Pentagon during a phone call from Baghdad. "We have increased our presence and our footprint in the area and prepared for any threat that is presented by the pro-regime forces."

The United States has used communication channels with the Russian military, which also backs Syrian President Bashar Assad, and an airdrop of 90,000 leaflets over the weekend to warn the fighters to move away from Tanf, Dillon said. The fighters belong to the same group that the United States attacked May 18 for moving too close to the Tanf base.

Dillon said there are "a couple hundred" coalition, including U.S.
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and Syrian rebels at the base, and the coalition has also increased its airpower directly over the area to defend the base, as needed. He declined to detail the firepower added to the base in recent days. He also declined to say how many pro-government forces have gathered near the coalition base at Tanf.

In addition to the small group of fighters inside the non-conflict area, the coalition is also concerned about a growing formation of the militia on the edge of the zone, Dillon said. The United States has observed the militia, which Defense Secretary Jim Mattis recently described as "Iran-directed," move fighters, tanks, artillery and other weaponry up to the border of the zone to the northwest of Tanf. Dillon said fighters also are patrolling along the non-conflict zone's border to the north and east of the base and building fighting positions.

Despite concerns, the United States has not asked the militiamen outside of the non-conflict zone to move, Dillon said. They are primarily focused on convincing the fighters closest to Tanf to move.

The militia claims it is in the area only to fight ISIS, Dillon said. However, the coalition does not work with regime-aligned forces and does not want to operate so closely to the group, he said.

"We are just doing everything necessary to make sure that our forces are protected," Dillion said. "We've made it very clear our position and what it is that we want from them and why."

So far, the United States has not put a deadline on when the militia should move. It has also not directly warned the group that it would be attacked if it did not vacate its position.

But Dillon said if the group moves any closer to Tanf, the United States would see that as a direct threat, and he did not rule out a second airstrike.
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flyzies

Junior Member
Tanf will fall to the government eventually. The rebels, even with the support of US special forces, are out numbered and out gunned. The only question is how much resistance they'll put up when those SAA units move towards the Syrian-Iraqi border.
The mostly likely scenario would be negotiations between the Russian and US sides. But I can't see the Syrian government abandoning this attempt to secure its borders, as it has a big bearing on the future push to Deir Ezzor.
 

delft

Brigadier
From South Front:
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Strategic Implications Of Syrian Government Forces Success At Border With Iraq


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On June 9, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its allied militia groups reached the border with Iraq in the area north of the US-led coalition garrison at the village of At Tanf. This advance dramatically changed the strategic situation in southeastern Syria and de-facto allowed the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance to win the race for the border with Iraq.

The key goal of the US-led coalition actions near At Tanf was to prevent the SAA from linking up with the allied Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) operating in Iraq and to build a buffer zone controlled by Western-backed militant groups between the two countries.

The PMU is a major power in Iraq and an official part of the Iraqi Armed Forces. It’s currently conducting a large-scale operating against ISIS terrorists at own side of the border. The June 9 advance destroyed the US-led coalition’s plans.

The government forces deployed north of At Tanf also prevent US-backed proxies from advancing on the ISIS-held border town of al-Bukamal. While the US-led forces in southeastern Syria have never had enough manpower and capabilities to do this, the declared aim to retake al-Bukamal from ISIS was an important part of the US propaganda campaign to justify its illegal presence in the area.

The government deploymen north of At Tan may also be described as a response to actions of another US-backed force, the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the province of Raqqah. The SDF had made a number of steps near Tabqah blocking the SAA from reaching the Raqqah provincial capital.

Now, government forces in southeastern Syrian forces will likely coordinate its efforts with the PMU in order to clear the Syrian-Iraqi border area and to move to al-Bukamal and Qaim. Iran will also be able to incease supplies to the Syrian government via the opened land route.

Some PMU member groups are already participating in the operations in Syria on the side of the SAA. Now, this number will likely be increased.

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plawolf

Lieutenant General
UN war crimes investigators are reporting 'staggering' civilian casualties in the US led offensive on the ISIS 'capital' of Raqqa.

No figures have been released, but even when they are, I fear it will be a gross underestimate and the true civilian death toll will never be known.

Pretty hard to tell civilian from militants after a thousand pound bomb has been dropped on them.
 
Update on the southeastern Syrian border situation:

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WORLD NEWS | Wed Jun 14, 2017 | 9:48am EDT
Exclusive: U.S. expands presence in Syrian desert, rebels say

By Suleiman Al-Khalidi | AMMAN
U.S. troops based in Syria's southeastern desert have expanded their footprint, rebels there say, increasing the risk of direct ground confrontation between the Americans and Iran-backed pro-government forces.

U.S. special forces have been based since last year at Tanf, a strategic Syrian highway border crossing with Iraq, where the Americans have assisted rebels trying to recapture territory from fleeing Islamic State fighters.

The U.S.-backed Syrian rebels in the area are in competition with pro-government forces who are also trying to recapture territory from Islamic State.

On several occasions in recent weeks, warplanes of the U.S.-led coalition have struck pro-government forces to prevent them advancing, in what Washington has described as self defense.

Abu al-Atheer, military spokesman for the U.S.-backed Maghawir al-Thawra rebel group, told Reuters U.S. forces had spread from their initial location at Tanf to set up a second base at Zakf, around 60-70 km (40-50 miles) to the northeast.

Colonel Ryan Dillon, spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition fighting against Islamic State in both Iraq and Syria, denied troops had set up a new base. But he said sometimes coalition forces conduct patrols and training with rebels at locations outside Tanf that could be maintained for days or weeks.

"We have that garrison in al-Tanf that is a temporary base and location for us to train our partner forces to fight to defeat ISIS, but that is the only base in southern Syria or location where we have coalition forces," Dillon said.

Abu al-Atheer said the U.S. special forces were now patrolling distances of up to 100 km from Tanf. He said more U.S. special forces were arriving at both the original base at Tanf and the new base at Zakf, and more weapons had been delivered to rebels.

"The (new) base was being studied for months but now it's an official base. It has been built and expanded and God willing will be in the next few days like the Tanf base," he told Reuters.

Video clips purportedly of the Zakf site, sent to Reuters by another rebel in the group, showed a convoy of military vehicles traveling on a paved road lined by long walls, a communications mast and a hut. Another showed three men in uniform next to two small military vehicles, firing a mortar in otherwise empty desert.

U.S.-backed rebels are fighting to oust Islamic State fighters from their last two major bastions -- Mosul in Iraq and the Euphrates River valley near Raqqa in Syria -- in battles which Washington hopes could crush the group this year.

The Syrian government, backed by Russia and Iran, also wants to reclaim the territory in Syria. Pro-government forces have taken up positions north of Tanf, potentially cutting off the U.S.-backed rebels from advancing.

Muzahem Saloum, a rebel official close to Maghawir al-Thawra, said the Zakf location would back up Tanf and was expected to be a "first line of defense" against any attack by Iranian-backed Syrian pro-government militias.

RIVALRY

Tanf is located near a Syria-Iraq border crossing on the main Baghdad-Damascus highway, and the U.S.-backed rebels took it from Islamic State last year, partly to stop Iran from using it in future to send arms to the Syrian government.

The U.S.-backed rebels also want to use it to take more territory along the border and to push towards Deir al-Zor, a large city on the Euphrates where the government has an enclave surrounded by Islamic State fighters.

However, Syria's army has declared winning back control of the desert and relieving its besieged Deir al-Zor enclave a military priority and has advanced swiftly from Palmyra with troops and dozens of tanks.

Aided by allied militias backed by Iran, it also hopes to join up with Iraqi forces advancing against Islamic State across the border to secure a land route from Damascus to Baghdad.

Iranian news sites have published pictures of Qasem Soleimani, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' elite extra-territorial arm the Qods Force, visiting militia fighters at an undisclosed area on the border.

Recent Syrian government advances to the Iraq border northeast of Tanf and Zakf mean the U.S.-backed rebels would have to fight the Syrian army in order to march on Deir al-Zor.

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis on Tuesday said air strikes against pro-government forces near Tanf in recent weeks had been in self defense, to prevent them from attacking its troops at the base.

Rebel spokesman Abu al-Atheer said the goal of the government forces was "to cut our advance towards Deir al-Zor. But we are moving towards a plan to take us to Deir al-Zor even if they enter," Abu al-Atheer said.

"The battle is not over and we will not allow the Iranian Shi'ites to occupy our land. Our response to those who stand against us will be cruel," he added.

(Reporting by Suleiman Al-Khalidi; additional reporting by Angus McDowall; editing by Angus McDowall and Peter Graff)
 
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