ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

Yesterday at 7:28 PM

Jura said:

Yesterday at 5:57 PM

from what I figured, today there had been a counter-strike mounted by Government, followed by Rebels' push; tiny "Btaysh" village (marked in the map below) probably is currently at the bottom of the pocket, its shape completely schematically shown by red lines (Halfaya lost by the Government yesterday (after Rebels had crossed the Orontes EDIT OK actually I don't know how they get around

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LOL), plus this afternoon reportedly "Taybat al-Imam" as well: between Souran and M5 Highway):

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according to pro-Government sources, now Rebels aren't in
so I added this place (and a question mark in its position: in Twitter I noticed the usual cycle

• taking announcement, followed by
• denial by the other side, followed by
• counter-strike announcement by that side, followed by ...

etc.) right into the map from yesterday:

Jura said:

it'll be interesting to see where the tide turns in this area

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I would guess there are no doubts
By -
31/08/2016

EDIT
the map with the recent Government losses (probably credibly marked):

Today at 6:28 AM

Jura said:

Yesterday at 7:28 PM

according to pro-Government sources, now Rebels aren't in

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so I added this place (...) right into the map from yesterday:

...

Click to expand...

... and the situation in Khitab is unclear to me: pro-Government sources claim it's been retaken, elsewhere I've read Rebels are in the outskirts of Hama (?) ... both sides report though
under heavy attack now, so I put Suran in the red ellipse in the same map:

Aug 21, 2016

Jura said:

... the Government hasn't achieved much in Southern Aleppo lately, has it?

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ten days later, "Cassad"

basically says it's going slowly, but well:
let's wait and see

Today at 12:23 PM

Jura said:

Today at 6:28 AM

... and the situation in Khitab is unclear to me: pro-Government sources claim it's been retaken, elsewhere I've read Rebels are in the outskirts of Hama (?) ... both sides report though

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under heavy attack now, so I put Suran in the red ellipse in the same map:

Click to expand...

just very briefly now:

• still don't know about Khitab
• "Cassad"
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  says Government lost Souran
• reportedly
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  is under attack now (for the last time I used the same map, marked also the position of Maan):
  

The latest map on AMN has a more optimistic picture for the campaign in West Aleppo, claiming that the SAA have largely recaptured the Technical college and cut the rebel supply route into Aleppo



Its pretty clear that the Hama offensive to the South is intended to draw forces from the Aleppo front and relieve the ongoing building pressure and attrition. It seems however that the SAA are not prepared to play ball and instead are happy to take advantage of the apparent rebel force redeployment to the Hama front and push the advantage to the more significant Aleppo campaign.

Some Tiger forces have apparently been redeployed to the defense of Hama and the strategy appears to be contain the offensive in the countryside, let it run out of steam and simply role back.
I say this as I have not heard any update on the redeployment of the 4th Armoured Div units, since the end of the Darayya campaign and their sending up to South Aleppo to the Khan Touman area, where SAA forces are also being reported as making significant progress.

SAA now claiming to be in full control of the Technical College.


The article includes the recently released video from Anna News

Yesterday at 8:19 PM

Jura said:

Today at 12:23 PM
...

• reportedly
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  is under attack now ...

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... found in pro-Government Twitter, from that area, this night:

Yesterday at 5:00 PM

Jura said:

Aug 21, 2016

ten days later, "Cassad"

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basically says it's going slowly, but well:

...

Click to expand...

... new map:


from new blog
which concludes pretty much as the one from yesterday .... five specific points in there (very very briefly here, North Hama area waits for me :

1. Government took over Technical College recently, which enables it to bring reinforcements through "nobody's land" south to Hamadinyah District; an attack further down through the Artillery Base (https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...o-oped-no-politics.t6913/page-400#post-408151) is to start in one or two days
2. Government is in control of about sixty percent of "1070 Apartments" https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...o-oped-no-politics.t6913/page-400#post-408083
   
3. no changes in Ramouseh District lately EDIT
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4. more to the south ... skipping the hills ... Rebels are in control of about ninety percent of Qarassi
   
5. high risk for Rebels to send supplies through Khan Tuman - Ramouseh route EDIT https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...o-oped-no-politics.t6913/page-410#post-411068

SampanViking said:

... It seems however that the SAA are not prepared to play ball and instead are happy to take advantage of the apparent rebel force redeployment to the Hama front and push the advantage to the more significant Aleppo campaign.

...

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LOL sounds as a perfect setup

from what I figured, as of "now", the bulge (shown in red in the map above; in blue: approximate positions before the game began) looks something like this:

1. widens to the north-west from "Al-Hamami" (top-left corner, see?); from there
   
2. follows the road to "Muhradah" (it's
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   ); from there
3. gets around Muhradah, down to the vicinity of "Al Majdal" (
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   ) LOL still with me? four more points, then
   
4. the bottom is north to "Khattab" (it's Khitab from https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...o-oped-no-politics.t6913/page-421#post-412920 and Government is there)
5. marks a presumably important hill "Mount Zayn al-Abdeen" (
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   ), overlooking "M5" Highway https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...o-oped-no-politics.t6913/page-420#post-412846 and of course Hama, and this picture purports to show Rebels shell it:
   
   ; then from that area
   
6. the bulge goes north toward "Ti'an" which is Maan (yes, that's what I think) from https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...o-oped-no-politics.t6913/page-421#post-413019 and Government holds up there; from there
   
7. widening toward
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   etc.

EDIT
now I noticed in pro-Government Twitter the claim of a counter-strike around "Marus" (it's close to #6 mark above)

Bombs for the bad guys.

"General Dynamics – Ordnance and Tactical Systems, Garland, Texas, was awarded a $39,258,206 modification (P0004) to foreign military sales contract (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, France and Iraq) W52P1J-13-D-0050 for MK82-1 bomb bodies (162); MK82-6 bomb bodies (7,245); and MK84-10 bomb bodies (9,664), being bought in support of Air Force and Navy requirements. Work will be performed in Garland, Texas, with an estimated completion date of December 31, 2017. Fiscal 2014, 2015 and 2016 other funds in the amount of $39,258,206 were obligated at the time of the award. Army Contracting Command, Rock Island, Illinois, is the contracting activity."

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For give an idea before 4 Mirage 2000D do sorties 6 on 7 days with 2 LGB so 48 by week eventualy more in surge or if Rafale from UAE do sorties also.

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