ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Massive development.

My initial view is that this is a really bad idea on Turkey's part.

Unless they plan on annexing northern Syria, I cannot see an exist strategy for them which doesn't involve defeat.

If they do annex northern Syria, they just put themselves down for decades of bloody counter-insurgency fighting and would be adding to its existing Kurdish problem by inflaming domestic Kurds while at the same time bring in a huge number of foreign hostile Kurds into its new expanded boarders.

The whole annexing parts of neighbours thing also won't sit well with anyone. So NATO won't have their back in this, and if they
Have another fall out with Russia, it would be hard to see how NATO could, or would even want to justify getting involved if the Russians decide to give the Turks a good spanking in Syria.

Almost feels like Putin has manoeuvred Erdogan into a trap here.

Make Erdogan think they are all made nice, trick him into making a silly aggressive land grab that NATO cannot stand behind, and then beat him up as proper payback for shooting down that Su24 when he no longer has NATO's skirts to hide behind.
 
Reuters report on Turkey's direct large scale intervention on the ground:
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Wed Aug 24, 2016 10:43am EDT
Turkish tanks, special forces launch first major push into Syria to battle IS

By Humeyra Pamuk and Umit Ozdal | KARKAMIS, TURKEY
Turkish special forces, tanks and jets backed by planes from the U.S.-led coalition launched their first co-ordinated offensive into Syria on Wednesday to try to drive Islamic State from the border and prevent further gains by Kurdish militia fighters.

A column of at least nine Turkish tanks crossed into northern Syria with Turkish-backed Syrian rebels to push Islamic State out of the border town of Jarablus, military sources said. A Reuters reporter at the border witnessed intense bombardments, with palls of black smoke rising around the town.

President Tayyip Erdogan said the operation was targeting Islamic State and the Kurdish PYD party, whose gains in northern Syria have alarmed Turkey. Ankara views the PYD as an extension of Kurdish militants fighting an insurgency on its own soil, putting it at odds with Washington, which sees the group as an ally in the fight against Islamic State.

"This morning at 4 a.m. (0100 GMT) an operation started in northern Syria against terror groups which constantly threaten our country, like Daesh (Islamic State) and the PYD," Erdogan said in a speech in Ankara.

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden arrived in Turkey, which has NATO's second biggest armed forces, hours after operations began on a pre-planned trip. Biden is the most senior U.S. official to visit since a failed July 15 coup shook confidence in Turkey's ability to step up the fight against Islamic State.

"Euphrates Shield", named after the river running nearby, is Turkey's first major military operation since the abortive coup. A military source said the Turkish-backed rebels had seized control of four villages as they pushed toward Jarablus.

The offensive by Turkey comes four days after a suicide bomber suspected of links to Islamic State killed 54 people at a wedding in the southeastern city of Gaziantep.

Syria's foreign ministry condemned what it said was a breach of its sovereignty and accused Ankara of launching the incursion to replace Islamic State with "other terrorist groups".

TESTING TIME

A senior U.S. official traveling with Biden said the United States wanted to help Turkey to get Islamic State away from the border, and was providing air cover and "synching up" with the Turks on their plans for Jarablus. The shelling was hitting Islamic State, not Kurdish forces, he said.

Biden's visit comes at a testing time for Turkish-U.S. relations. Turkey says the failed putsch was staged by Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen, who has lived in self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania for the past 17 years.

Erdogan wants Gulen extradited but Washington says it needs clear evidence of his alleged involvement, sparking an outpouring of anti-Americanism from Turkey's pro-government media. Gulen denies any involvement in the attempted coup.

The Turkish army began firing artillery rounds into Jarablus at around 0100 GMT and Turkish and U.S. warplanes pounded Islamic State targets with air strikes.

It was the first time warplanes from Turkey have struck in Syria since November, when Turkey downed a Russian warplane near the border, and the first significant incursion by Turkish special forces since a brief operation to relocate the tomb of Suleyman Shah, a revered Ottoman figure, in February 2015.

Turkey and the United States hope that by removing Islamic State from the border, they can deprive it of a smuggling route which long saw its ranks swollen with foreign fighters and its coffers boosted by illicit trade.

But for Turkey, it also preempts any attempt by Syrian Kurdish militia fighters, who play a critical part of the U.S.-backed campaign against Islamic State, to take Jarablus.

Kurdish fighters have captured large areas of territory since the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011, and Ankara has long declared the Euphrates river, which runs just east of Jarablus, a red line which it does not want them to cross.

Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Kurdish fighters must return east of the Euphrates or Turkey would "do what is necessary". He said the operation was a turning point and would accelerate removing Islamic State from Syria's Aleppo region.

ENTERING A "QUAGMIRE"

plumes of smoke rose from the hills around Jarablus, visible from the Turkish town of Karkamis across the border. The boom of artillery rounds was audible as advancing Turkish tanks fired.

Turkish military sources said the air strikes had hit 12 Islamic State targets, while artillery fire hit 70 targets.

"The aim of the operation is to ensure border security and Syria's territorial integrity while supporting the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State," one military source said, adding work to open a passage for ground forces was under way.

Saleh Muslim, head of the Kurdish PYD, wrote in a tweet that Turkey was entering a "quagmire" in Syria and faced defeat there like Islamic State. Redur Xelil, spokesman for the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia, said the intervention was a "blatant aggression in Syrian internal affairs".

Kurdish groups control swathes of northern Syria where they established de facto autonomy since the start of the Syria war. The YPG, armed wing of the PYD, took control of most of Hasaka city on Tuesday, about 250 km (155 miles) east of Jarablus.

That growing Kurdish influence has alarmed Ankara, which is fighting its own insurgency with militants from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), blamed by the government for an escalation of attacks in the southeast of Turkey.

The U.S.-backed Syria Democratic Forces alliance (SDF), which includes the YPG, captured the city of Manbij, just south of Jarablus, from Islamic State earlier this month.

The U.S. official acknowledged Turkey had not been happy about the Manbij operation but said Washington underlined the Kurds would pull back once the city was cleared and that they would not move north, addressing a major Turkish concern.

"We've put a lid on the Kurds moving north, or at least doing so if they want any support from us," he said.

POST-COUP OPERATION

Turkey had vowed on Monday to "completely cleanse" Islamic State militants from its border region after the Gaziantep bombing. Operation "Euphrates Shield" also comes after at least 10 mortar shells from Jarablus landed in Karkamis and the surrounding areas in recent days, forcing residents to flee.

Syrian rebels backed by Turkey had said they were in the final stages of preparing an assault from Turkish territory on Jarablus. A Syrian rebel with one of the Turkey-backed groups said about 1,500 fighters had gathered in Turkey to take part.

It is Turkey's first major military operation since the failed July coup by rogue solders who tried to overthrow Erdogan and the government, killing 240 people and triggering a purge of suspected coup supporters in the army and civil service.

Angered by a perceived lack of Western sympathy over the coup, Turkey chilled ties with Washington and the EU while ending a diplomatic row with Russia and proposing more military cooperation with Moscow in fighting Islamic State. Growing ties between Ankara and Moscow have worried Turkey's Western allies.

(Additional reporting by Jeff Mason aboard Air Force Two; Orhan Coskun in Ankara; Ayla Jean Yackley, Asli Kandemir, David Dolan, Osman Orsal and Daren Butler in Istanbul; Tom Perry in Beirut; Writing by Patrick Markey and Nick Tattersall; Editing by Peter Millership)
 
First of all, just to respond to Jura's quite silly comment about Government forces in Al Hasakah
man I wonder what set you off (normally you're not that defensive :)

my post again:
after
Friday at 7:41 AM

... then
Saturday at 6:36 PM

... through
Monday at 4:41 PM

to this, which is now:

Cqko7uCWIAEnS9E.jpg

(and it's just Police-type force in the red spot, no artillery or something)

so it took Kurds less than a week to kick the Government out (and they had been bombed
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-407#post-410807
etc.), while the Government has been unable to get rid of numerous enclaves for years EDIT as in
Sunday at 10:20 AM

your rebuke:
Two words - Deir Ezzor - nuff said

Al Hasakah was of course resolved by a deal brokered by Moscow (similar to other deals brokered with now gone rebel enclaves in the West of the Country).
Clearly Al Hasakah was not viable if contested and as mainly composed of NDF forces, not exactly front echelon either. Further of course, a very clear provocation from an aggressive External Player.

Damascus have clearly been convinced that it is not worth the risk or effort of opening a new remote front and that the forces there can probably be put to better use elsewhere.

Given the situation building in the North, they are probably all the better for being out of it.
... (seems to end here)

my rebuttal:
here's the map showing only the very recent events in Damascus area:
M2yj.jpg
I don't know even the names of all those enclaves, but think the history of Government attempts at eliminating them is long: it's definitely long in comparison with the Kurdish action against Hasaka, which I summarized in the post quoted above. I've been wondering why the Government didn't use
  • Stone Age tactics: take them by hunger, or
  • WW2 tactics: flatten them with barrage/carpet bombing
against them ... and I'm ready to leave it at that (but if you quote me, I'm going to respond). Cheers.
 

FORBIN

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Normaly Charles de Gaule left France for mid september for operations in the Middle East normaly " Arromanches 3 " with a German FFG Type 124, announced up to 25 Rafale but with a Flotilla on fransition from Super-Etendard maybe 20.
Last time 18 Rafale, 8 Super-Etendard, 2 E-2C and 4 helos : 32 !

With about 15 Rafale to Jordania/UAE soon replace there Mirage 2000D/NK3 a total of 35 - 40 :p

The aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, expected to sail in mid-September for a new operational deployment, will again be accompanied by the German frigate Augsburg. This should leave its home port of Wilhelmshaven by the end of August.

The Class frigate "Bremen" is specialized in anti-submarine warfare and can implement two Sea Lynx MK88. The Augsburg was included in the carrier battle group during the mission "Arromanches 2" from December 2015 to March 2016. A German liaison officer was also on board the aircraft carrier.

Regarding the possible involvement of foreign vessels GAN, the general staff of the armed reported not currently be able to communicate about it. During the previous deployment, in addition to the German frigate, FDA Chevalier Paul, the MDTF La Motte-Picquet and PR Marne, Charles de Gaulle was accompanied by the Belgian frigate Leopold I, and HMS Defender of Royal Navy.

Deployed between January and May 2015 (Mission "Arromanches 1") and from November 2015 to March 2016 ( "Arromanches 2"), the aircraft carrier was back to its base port of Toulon for operational by long delivery period and (re -)qualification. It should sail in the fall for one last mission before being stopped early in 2017 as part of the renovation project at mid-life.

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FORBIN

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
M2yj.jpg
I don't know even the names of all those enclaves, but think the history of Government attempts at eliminating them is long: it's definitely long in comparison with the Kurdish action against Hasaka, which I summarized in the post quoted above. I've been wondering why the Government didn't use
  • Stone Age tactics: take them by hunger, or
  • WW2 tactics: flatten them with barrage/carpet bombing
against them ... and I'm ready to leave it at that (but if you quote me, I'm going to respond). Cheers.
Number of airstrikes interesting , added by you ?
With this site
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Friend Jura allow me question you :) why from about 2 years you have post many many maps but only for Syria and almost never for Iraq o_O
 
Today at 10:58 AM
... it seems they entered around 1100 hours of local time ("they" looks to me as Rebels on pickups, Turkish SF, and a Tank Battalion); interesting pictures right now available from
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hope the dude didn't fake them all :)

plus of course fights are going on in the town of Jarabulus:
CqnMbpTW8AA0zRP.jpg
since then ISIL simply has left the town (at least according to what I saw in Twitter now)
 
Your a bit unusual :)




In the rectangle close Qataria your infos ?
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or an other link ? don' t resist say me o_O
common FORBIN I intentionally put the link in
(so that nobody asks me about the link hahaha) if you want, just visit that site (if you go over a marked point, it automatically puts its description in the map, you can immediately see the coordinates, the source and stuff)
 
First of all, just to respond to Jura's quite silly comment about Government forces in Al Hasakah
Two words - Deir Ezzor - nuff said

Al Hasakah was of course resolved by a deal brokered by Moscow (similar to other deals brokered with now gone rebel enclaves in the West of the Country).
Clearly Al Hasakah was not viable if contested and as mainly composed of NDF forces, not exactly front echelon either. Further of course, a very clear provocation from an aggressive External Player.

Damascus have clearly been convinced that it is not worth the risk or effort of opening a new remote front and that the forces there can probably be put to better use elsewhere.

Given the situation building in the North, they are probably all the better for being out of it.
Turkey is now openly in Northern Aleppo telling the Kurds to retreat across the Euphrates and the US is telling the Kurds that they want them to go to Raqqa and not Al Bab (and beyond).
The Kurds are equally, clearly not listening to either of them.

This is significant as now not only are Turkey and the US in a genuine stand off (any guesses for the response if Turkish ordinance hits US Advisors?) We now have a Turkey that is no longer seeking Regime Change in Syria and presumably pulling its backed forces out of Southern Aleppo and Idlib (otherwise where else have these much quoted 1500 rebels come from)
Does this mean a critical decoupling of Turkish backed militants from the former Al Nusra?

If the Army of Conquest simply becomes a new banner for AlQidea only affiliated groups, the Syrian Government will effectively get a free hand in the Aleppo while a new three battle rages north of their lines and; to all intents and purposes, beyond their care.

What can Joe Biden acheive today in Ankara I wonder? I see precious few carrots at the moment and I doubt Erdogan is going to cowed by the threat of sticks.

All in all a very sticky situation until the next major player decides to make a realignment.
At the moment all the US has managed to do is to consolidate and align the positions of Syria, Iraq, Iran and Turkey under a Russian banner, with the Kurds suddenly the new meat in the grinder. It may not be a position they relish for very long!

I wouldn't be so sure that Turkey is now aligned with Russia and won't pursue regime change in Damascus. Outside of the north there are also plenty of rebel holdings throughout Syrian government territory and large parts of the south and southeast where other rebel factions and their sponsors have been biding their time to move against the government.
 
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